ATL: ETA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Vast majority of 06z GEFS Ensembles remain south of Florida.

[SFLcane]

06z euro only runs to 90hrs..

[TheStormExpert]

If the models are using Eta the circulation is almost in the Pacific so I saw this area WSW of Jamaica this morning look interesting. I wonder if the system that’s forecast to develop in the Gulf of Honduras is something else the models are picking up.

You’d think considering the old circulation is going into the East Pacific and the MLC is forecasted to degenerate into a remnant low today that it would be renamed Theta.

[Nuno]

06z euro only runs to 90hrs..

https://i.postimg.cc/g2P7fTYr/BF8-F633-F-0-BC3-4-A17-A030-D5-B9-BC5-D5946.png

What general direction is it going at the end of the run? Had it begun its westward turn?

[SFLcane]

06z euro only runs to 90hrs..

https://i.postimg.cc/g2P7fTYr/BF8-F633-F-0-BC3-4-A17-A030-D5-B9-BC5-D5946.png

What general direction is it going at the end of the run? Had it begun its westward turn?

Appears to be heading NW

[aspen]

Both the 06z GFS and 00z Euro push Eta through the Florida Straits and have it get down to the Yucatán Channel again. It seems like there’s a continuing westward shift in the track. Maybe it’s possible that Eta spends a longer time in the Caribbean, or it eventually returns after a Cuba landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Track Guidance. TVCN shoots it through the Yucatán Channel.

[SFLcane]

12z Track Guidance. TVCN shoots it through the Yucatán Channel.

https://i.imgur.com/BtAwBcz.png

TCVN has been going through there since early 00z yesterday lol + no model shows this.

In a nutshell this morning, slower, and more west / south.

[AutoPenalti]

12z Track Guidance. TVCN shoots it through the Yucatán Channel.

https://i.imgur.com/BtAwBcz.png

That's a massive ridge developing if it does verify.

[Emmett_Brown]

6Z GFS is showing a more favorable upper level environment over the E GOM at about 120 hours. More upper level anticyclonic flow/less shear than previous runs. This matches well with the more active 6Z GEFS ensembles, showing more sub 990mb members in the E GOM in the medium range.

[gatorcane]

TVCN WAY west as the west shifts continue, however it will likely be a sheared right-focused system so Florida would be on the dirty side.

[boca]

The way this is turning out we will be getting a few showers out of this with a west shift like that.

[TheStormExpert]

TVCN WAY west as the west shifts continue, however it will likely be a sheared right-focused system so Florida would be on the dirty side.

https://i.postimg.cc/Wz6hk2Qm/29-L-tracks-12z.png

TVCN would be nice but that might be too far west.

Our friend the SE Ridge strikes again!

[SFLcane]

TVCN WAY west as the west shifts continue, however it will likely be a sheared right-focused system so Florida would be on the dirty side.

https://i.postimg.cc/Wz6hk2Qm/29-L-tracks-12z.png

Tcvn is not correct. UKMET gets stuck in Central America but that's included in the TVCN average. So it biases it wayyyy west lol

[TheStormExpert]

The way this is turning out we will be getting a few showers out of this with a west shift like that.

Wind shouldn’t be much of a nuisance on the current NHC track. Still might get a few inches of rain on top of the 20 or so inches we’ve received over the past six weeks.

[LarryWx]

COAMPS ens:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looked like it wanted to mess with Florida, but then it remembered this season's absurd hatred of Louisiana.

[chaser1]

COAMPS ens:

https://i.imgur.com/7IWBy0J.png

I'm impressed how most Coamp ensemble members are still suggesting Eta regaining brief hurricane intensity prior to Cuba landfall. Given the relative short period of time for genesis and the less then ideal upper level conditions, that kind of surprises me.

[AutoPenalti]

COAMPS ens:

https://i.imgur.com/7IWBy0J.png

Wow.

[chaser1]

Looked like it wanted to mess with Florida, but then it remembered this season's absurd hatred of Louisiana.

Still, I could see how a closer approach to the Keys might result in a few weak covid-nados from outer bands wrapping around the north side.