ATL: ETA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

This looks like it could catch Florida residents off guard.

It depends. We can handle a weak-moderate TS but anything stronger will catch people off guard.

[Blown Away]

It looks like the sudden turn will happen in 72hrs. So depending on where Eta is then will determine if it makes landfall in Florida or not. The NHC has Eta still directly over Central Cuba in 72hrs. this the turn being further south.

Yep, the 18z models show a faster storm, so we will see soon how much weight the NHC gives to the 18z..

[SFLcane]

Euro comes north heading NW on 18z!!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you all so much for posting those runs, much appreciated

[Blown Away]

Euro comes north heading NW on 18z!!

https://i.postimg.cc/GmYdnSLL/BAD50-BF3-521-D-47-B0-AFDC-365-C89-DDC585.jpg

Uh oh!!! That’s the last domino to fall... SFL Cat 1 may be in sight Sunday..

[SFLcane]

Euro comes north heading NW on 18z!!

https://i.postimg.cc/GmYdnSLL/BAD50-BF3-521-D-47-B0-AFDC-365-C89-DDC585.jpg

Uh oh!!! That’s the last domino to fall... SFL Cat 1 may be in sight Sunday..

Yep here we go!

[ElectricStorm]

This looks like it could catch Florida residents off guard.

It depends. We can handle a weak-moderate TS but anything stronger will catch people off guard.

Anything can catch people off guard with the amount of rain forecast though

[MetroMike]

This looks like it could catch Florida residents off guard.

It depends. We can handle a weak-moderate TS but anything stronger will catch people off guard.

Anything can catch people off guard with the amount of rain forecast though

The cone of uncertainty may have to be adjusted a bit on tonights 10pm update from the NHC.

[Ken711]

Euro comes north heading NW on 18z!!

https://i.postimg.cc/GmYdnSLL/BAD50-BF3-521-D-47-B0-AFDC-365-C89-DDC585.jpg

Uh oh!!! That’s the last domino to fall... SFL Cat 1 may be in sight Sunday..

Yep here we go!

Is the Florida force field that has protected it all season going to come to the rescue again.

[Frank2]

I would not give the models much in the way confidence right now, because the 12z run showed very little in the way of excitment, but 6 hours later it shows a near-hurricane? Jumping back and forth does nothing or little for forecasters...

Others have said without a identifiable center the model data is of low confidence and I agree - the NHC might mention the change in the next package, but they might not, considering the shear...

[jlauderdal]

Uh oh!!! That’s the last domino to fall... SFL Cat 1 may be in sight Sunday..

Yep here we go!

Is the Florida force field that has protected it all season going to come to the rescue again.

I will buy gas for the genny tomorrow, track record of that action has been fruitful for a very long time

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep here we go!

Is the Florida force field that has protected it all season going to come to the rescue again.

I will buy gas for the genny tomorrow, track record of that action has been fruitful for a very long time

jlauderdale bringing the trusty genny!!! Don't forget to fire it up. That's a sure fire way to make it go away!!!

[Blown Away]

I would not give the models much in the way confidence right now, because the 12z run showed very little in the way of excitment, but 6 hours later it shows a near-hurricane? Jumping back and forth does nothing or little for forecasters...

Others have said without a identifiable center the model data is of low confidence and I agree - the NHC might mention the change in the next package, but they might not, considering the shear...

I agree Frank, but today’s model runs show all that deep convection N of Honduras and E of where the LLC is to form... Its clear the future LLC is chasing/getting pulled towards that convection causing farther and faster S and E movement before turning. Previous runs show little convection on the E side. Also models letting go of the 2 competing Lows spinning in a big gyrie.

[MetroMike]

Levi: (As it it crosses Cuba), "..whether it gets strong, (or not),will depend on where it is in relation to this 'tongue' of dry air."

https://i.ibb.co/ZLb97sF/Capture114g.jpg

Where did you see this post from Levi? no video out today or tweets?

[MJGarrison]

Levi: (As it it crosses Cuba), "..whether it gets strong, (or not),will depend on where it is in relation to this 'tongue' of dry air."

https://i.ibb.co/ZLb97sF/Capture114g.jpg

Where did you see this post from Levi? no video out today or tweets?

That was from the Tuesday video if I remember correctly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

[SFLcane]

Updated some 00z guidance...SFL you may have a problem

[AutoPenalti]

I’m waiting for 0z.

Then I can call off work on Monday

[ElectricStorm]

Updated some 00z guidance...SFL you may have a problem

https://i.postimg.cc/RCpB6JXn/828-B1-C50-89-C9-4-CA0-BE88-C5-E78-AA863-C8.jpg

Ouch... Even if it doesn't make landfall that still puts them on the dirty side.

[jlauderdal]

I’m waiting for 0z.

Then I can call off work on Monday

Ah, go ahead and call it