ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2661 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:42 pm

The NHC’s 7pm update has Eta’s center back over water.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2662 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:51 pm

Eta’s death toll has risen to 63, with the latest update from a Guardian article. It’s behind a paywall but you can see the first paragraph or so.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... al-america
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2663 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:58 pm

aspen wrote:The NHC’s 7pm update has Eta’s center back over water.

And so it begins...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2664 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:10 pm

00z Best Track over water.

AL, 29, 2020110600, , BEST, 0, 162N, 878W, 30, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ETA, M


Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2665 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:15 pm

Now that Eta’s center has emerged over water, it’s time to see how quickly it’ll attempt to recover from spending 2 full days over Central America. There’s already some convection near the LLC over water.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2666 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:23 pm

I like the new consensus run - west across mid Keys then turns north between 85W-86W with landfall late next Thursday near Apalachicola. Almost on top of my track. I think it should be weakening as it tracks northward. Take a look at what Eta may be fighting in the eastern Gulf.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020110518/gfs_midRH_watl_29.png
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2667 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:23 pm

Thanks Blown Away
House is on stilts but do have my boat on a trailer , may need to bring it to Miami.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2668 Postby ClarCari » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:24 pm

The next day of development is going to be crucial for judging future intensity.

ATM I’m currently scoffing at the idea of this thing staying a TS through the Caribbean. If anything I think this will team up with any trough or low pressure to actually gain intensity almost like we saw with Zeta.

Not saying this is gonna bomb out pinhole x2 again (Got my on this tho!) or even forsure gonna be a major again, just every storm passing through here in WCar since the beginning of October has become a solid hurricane (assuming Gamma was) despite any shear values and dry air that were forecasted.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2669 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:26 pm

Thank you WXMAN always track your input.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2670 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:35 pm

And here it starts as cyclonic turning is seen on the vis loop :eek:

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2671 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:36 pm

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2672 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:55 pm

For all the old school s2kers. A video from the legendary Mike Watkins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veufzFNNhpI
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2673 Postby chaser1 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:57 pm

Been working last few hours and just took a quick look at the wide view IR. I know where NHC has now placed Eta's center but..... I could swear there's some mid level feature around 18N and about 84W that I find particularly interesting. Perhaps it'll be entirely transient but it caught my eye.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2674 Postby N2FSU » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:22 pm

JtSmarts wrote:For all the old school s2kers. A video from the legendary Mike Watkins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veufzFNNhpI

Man I used to follow Mike’s posts religiously back in the day! One of the most accurate posters on here.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2675 Postby Blown Away » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:36 pm

I’m seeing a mid level spin farther E from the NHC 7pm position, thinking Eta will move farther E past Florida then turn NNW and make it far enough N in the FL peninsula to get picked up by the trough and avoid this loop scenario. We are seeing the models slowly moving away from the big loop.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2676 Postby Blown Away » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:37 pm

Hurricane King track is pretty close to what I think is going to happen. JMHO
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2677 Postby SFLcane » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:45 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2678 Postby Blown Away » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:50 pm



16.5N/87.5W??
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2679 Postby SFLcane » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:52 pm

Blown Away wrote:


16.5N/87.5W??


Yep, that’s about we’re I’d put it.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2680 Postby SFLcane » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:59 pm

I can sense Blake is leaving the possibility open for this to be a hurricane threat to SFL.

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