ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The NHC’s 7pm update has Eta’s center back over water.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Eta’s death toll has risen to 63, with the latest update from a Guardian article. It’s behind a paywall but you can see the first paragraph or so.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... al-america
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... al-america
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
aspen wrote:The NHC’s 7pm update has Eta’s center back over water.
And so it begins...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
00z Best Track over water.

AL, 29, 2020110600, , BEST, 0, 162N, 878W, 30, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ETA, M

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Now that Eta’s center has emerged over water, it’s time to see how quickly it’ll attempt to recover from spending 2 full days over Central America. There’s already some convection near the LLC over water.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I like the new consensus run - west across mid Keys then turns north between 85W-86W with landfall late next Thursday near Apalachicola. Almost on top of my track. I think it should be weakening as it tracks northward. Take a look at what Eta may be fighting in the eastern Gulf.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020110518/gfs_midRH_watl_29.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020110518/gfs_midRH_watl_29.png
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Thanks Blown Away
House is on stilts but do have my boat on a trailer , may need to bring it to Miami.
House is on stilts but do have my boat on a trailer , may need to bring it to Miami.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The next day of development is going to be crucial for judging future intensity.
ATM I’m currently scoffing at the idea of this thing staying a TS through the Caribbean. If anything I think this will team up with any trough or low pressure to actually gain intensity almost like we saw with Zeta.
Not saying this is gonna bomb out pinhole x2 again (Got my on this tho!) or even forsure gonna be a major again, just every storm passing through here in WCar since the beginning of October has become a solid hurricane (assuming Gamma was) despite any shear values and dry air that were forecasted.
ATM I’m currently scoffing at the idea of this thing staying a TS through the Caribbean. If anything I think this will team up with any trough or low pressure to actually gain intensity almost like we saw with Zeta.
Not saying this is gonna bomb out pinhole x2 again (Got my on this tho!) or even forsure gonna be a major again, just every storm passing through here in WCar since the beginning of October has become a solid hurricane (assuming Gamma was) despite any shear values and dry air that were forecasted.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
And here it starts as cyclonic turning is seen on the vis loop



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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
For all the old school s2kers. A video from the legendary Mike Watkins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veufzFNNhpI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veufzFNNhpI
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Been working last few hours and just took a quick look at the wide view IR. I know where NHC has now placed Eta's center but..... I could swear there's some mid level feature around 18N and about 84W that I find particularly interesting. Perhaps it'll be entirely transient but it caught my eye.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
JtSmarts wrote:For all the old school s2kers. A video from the legendary Mike Watkins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veufzFNNhpI
Man I used to follow Mike’s posts religiously back in the day! One of the most accurate posters on here.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I’m seeing a mid level spin farther E from the NHC 7pm position, thinking Eta will move farther E past Florida then turn NNW and make it far enough N in the FL peninsula to get picked up by the trough and avoid this loop scenario. We are seeing the models slowly moving away from the big loop.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Hurricane King track is pretty close to what I think is going to happen. JMHO
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I can sense Blake is leaving the possibility open for this to be a hurricane threat to SFL.


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