ATL: ETA - Models

[Blown Away]

18z Guidance From SFWMD... Weird...

[gatorcane]

Looks like TVCN shifted south also, south of the Keys

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not sure Gator
That graphic looks like one from an older run. I could be wrong, but looks very similar to one posted yesterday.

[gatorcane]

I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?

[SFLcane]

I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?

Yes looks like old model runs and for sure the hwrf isn’t that far south.

I am confused! Wxman57 what is this?

[Spacecoast]

18Z guidance.

Not one model shows a hurricane and nearly all track south and west of the peninsula. But given the subtropical structure of the storm, and the tight pressure gradient with building high pressure, effects would be felt far from the center.

https://i.postimg.cc/RF65ZJd6/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fynFW2kp/29-L-intensity-18z.png

Current NHC advisory has Eta through the northern Keys... This map has OFCL way south? I don't think the next advisory has come out? Little puzzled by this map...

I’m confused as well because it has the GFS down by the middle/lower Keys when the last run was further north with the HWRF also more north.. don’t see how the OFCL track shifted south...

Don't confuse OFCI (6hr interpolated previous cycle), with OFCL latest NHC guidance, not shown,or released yet).
Same thing with AVNI, and AVNO (latest GFS Operational).
The "I" always means 6 hr previous cycle. The previous, or late cycle data may not be the latest, but it doesn't make it invalid either.

[SFLcane]

The gfs,Hmon,hwrf, euro, are all north of these models.

[AutoPenalti]

18Z guidance.

Not one model shows a hurricane and nearly all track south and west of the peninsula. But given the subtropical structure of the storm, and the tight pressure gradient with building high pressure, effects would be felt far from the center.

https://i.postimg.cc/RF65ZJd6/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fynFW2kp/29-L-intensity-18z.png

This doesn't seem right. This looks almost identical to last night's 12z run. All models are north of these ensembles.

[chaser1]

Nope, you're looking at wind barbs from an 850mb map (not a surface map or forecast)

Oops, sorry about that.

Yes, you are correct. Thank you for the clarifcation.

That would still translate to windy weather at the surface.

True, just not "Dorothy in Wizard of Oz" windy though. Hey, it still may swing or cross further upstate too.

[TheStormExpert]

I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?

The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.

[SFLcane]

Surely goes against anything wxman57 said this afternoon I highly doubt any watches are used with the look of those 18z plots. I think the Ukmet caused this shift If map is correct

[SFLcane]

I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?

The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.

This is true! That map is not correct

[TheStormExpert]

Surely goes against anything wxman57 said this afternoon I highly doubt any watches are used with the look of those 18z plots. I think the Ukmet caused this shift If map is correct

I'm pretty sure Wxman57 is using reverse psychology.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles move right around the South Florida and out into the Gulf with many showing a WSW bend like the Euro near South Florida.

[SFLcane]

Surely goes against anything wxman57 said this afternoon I highly doubt any watches are used with the look of those 18z plots. I think the Ukmet caused this shift If map is correct

I'm pretty sure Wxman57 is using reverse psychology.

Regardless it’s not correct the models plotted

[Spacecoast]

I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?

The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.

This is true! That map is not correct

The map is correct, and clearly labeled.
It shows OFCI, not OFCL.
It shows HWFI / HMNI, not HWRF / HMON.
It shows AVNI,not AVNO.
This is the way it has always been.
Levi will add the OFCL to this map when it is available.

[AutoPenalti]

It seems like we are going to see a change in the GFS pretty soon if those early ensembles verify.

[SFLcane]

The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.

This is true! That map is not correct

The map is correct, and clearly labeled.
It shows OFCI, not OFCL.
It shows HWFI / HMNI, not HWRF / HMON.
It shows AVNI,not AVNO.
This is the way it has always been.
Levi will add the OFCL to this map when it is available.

Great news then let’s hope it continues. I will enjoy the rainy breezy weekend

[TheStormExpert]

Surely goes against anything wxman57 said this afternoon I highly doubt any watches are used with the look of those 18z plots. I think the Ukmet caused this shift If map is correct

I'm pretty sure Wxman57 is using reverse psychology.

Regardless it’s not correct the models plotted

I know, the two Hurricane Models were into SE FL.

[TheStormExpert]

It seems like we are going to see a change in the GFS pretty soon if those early ensembles verify.

A change to what?