
18z Guidance From SFWMD... Weird...
Moderator: S2k Moderators
gatorcane wrote:I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?
caneseddy wrote:Blown Away wrote:gatorcane wrote:18Z guidance.
Not one model shows a hurricane and nearly all track south and west of the peninsula. But given the subtropical structure of the storm, and the tight pressure gradient with building high pressure, effects would be felt far from the center.
https://i.postimg.cc/RF65ZJd6/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fynFW2kp/29-L-intensity-18z.png
Current NHC advisory has Eta through the northern Keys... This map has OFCL way south? I don't think the next advisory has come out? Little puzzled by this map...
I’m confused as well because it has the GFS down by the middle/lower Keys when the last run was further north with the HWRF also more north.. don’t see how the OFCL track shifted south...
gatorcane wrote:18Z guidance.
Not one model shows a hurricane and nearly all track south and west of the peninsula. But given the subtropical structure of the storm, and the tight pressure gradient with building high pressure, effects would be felt far from the center.
https://i.postimg.cc/RF65ZJd6/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fynFW2kp/29-L-intensity-18z.png
psyclone wrote:Spacecoast wrote:chaser1 wrote:
Nope, you're looking at wind barbs from an 850mb map (not a surface map or forecast)
Oops, sorry about that.
Yes, you are correct. Thank you for the clarifcation.
That would still translate to windy weather at the surface.
gatorcane wrote:I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?
TheStormExpert wrote:gatorcane wrote:I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?
The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.
SFLcane wrote:Surely goes against anything wxman57 said this afternoon I highly doubt any watches are used with the look of those 18z plots. I think the Ukmet caused this shift If map is correct
TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:Surely goes against anything wxman57 said this afternoon I highly doubt any watches are used with the look of those 18z plots. I think the Ukmet caused this shift If map is correct
I'm pretty sure Wxman57 is using reverse psychology.
SFLcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:gatorcane wrote:I agree the TT models seem weird, since the HWRF isn’t that far south is it?
The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.
This is true! That map is not correct
Spacecoast wrote:SFLcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:The 12z HWRF and HMON were into SE Florida.
This is true! That map is not correct
The map is correct, and clearly labeled.
It shows OFCI, not OFCL.
It shows HWFI / HMNI, not HWRF / HMON.
It shows AVNI,not AVNO.
This is the way it has always been.
Levi will add the OFCL to this map when it is available.
SFLcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:Surely goes against anything wxman57 said this afternoon I highly doubt any watches are used with the look of those 18z plots. I think the Ukmet caused this shift If map is correct
I'm pretty sure Wxman57 is using reverse psychology.
Regardless it’s not correct the models plotted
AutoPenalti wrote:It seems like we are going to see a change in the GFS pretty soon if those early ensembles verify.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests