ATL: ETA - Models

[robbielyn]

06z gfs 987mb into dade county.

track different than oz though. cross west over to the west coast just offshore barely and riding up coast and second landfall pasco or hernando county to 993mb.

[jlauderdal]

06z gfs 987mb into dade county.

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

[crownweather]

06z gfs 987mb into dade county.

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

[jlauderdal]

06z gfs 987mb into dade county.

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

that's what some say, they apparently forgot the difference between a thunderstorm and a tropical system that hangs around for a few days, sofla will be on the NE quadrant too which we haven't seen for a while

[underthwx]

06z gfs 987mb into dade county.

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

I love Crown weather...

[underthwx]

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

that's what some say, they apparently forgot the difference between a thunderstorm and a tropical system that hangs around for a few days, sofla will be on the NE quadrant too which we haven't seen for a while

Absolutely...

[robbielyn]

TS watches up on east coast to Sebastian inlet, the keys, and up to Naples on the west coast of florida. Bahamas and cuba under TS warnings.

[robbielyn]

Track wise gfs, hwarf and hmon generally all in agreement 06z.

[TheStormExpert]

06z gfs 987mb into dade county.

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

A prolonged afternoon storm. The way some people are on here you’d think a formidable hurricane was bearing down on South Florida.

[ElectricStorm]

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

A prolonged afternoon storm. The way some people are on here you’d think a formidable hurricane was bearing down on South Florida.

I guess I'll just never understand how a 60-70 mph TS that floods many areas and dumps 15-20+ inches of rain is a typical summer storm...

[robbielyn]

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

A prolonged afternoon storm. The way some people are on here you’d think a formidable hurricane was bearing down on South Florida.

The way this year has gone and all of the surprises it’s wise to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. being overly cautious better than under cautious. i live north of I-4 west coast so i’m not overly cautious as impacts will not be as strong up here.

[toad strangler]

its been consistent the last 24 hours....big rains on the way, power will be knocked out

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

A prolonged afternoon storm. The way some people are on here you’d think a formidable hurricane was bearing down on South Florida.

Nah, can't walk that one back.

[jlauderdal]

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

A prolonged afternoon storm. The way some people are on here you’d think a formidable hurricane was bearing down on South Florida.

I guess I'll just never understand how a 60-70 mph TS that floods many areas and dumps 15-20+ inches of rain is a typical summer storm...

its not and anyone that says it is doesn't know what they are talking about...I was in zeta last week in NC, lost power in winds under 50, trees were knocked down..furthermore, one big gust in convection will do it

[gatorcane]

But, hey it won't be any worse than a normal South Florida thunderstorm, right?

A prolonged afternoon storm. The way some people are on here you’d think a formidable hurricane was bearing down on South Florida.

I guess I'll just never understand how a 60-70 mph TS that floods many areas and dumps 15-20+ inches of rain is a typical summer storm...

What model is showing that much rain? The GFS which has the storm right over South Florida shows 4-5 inches at most for most of the area but not 15-20 inches.

[SFLcane]

12z models shift north again.

[SFLcane]

A prolonged afternoon storm. The way some people are on here you’d think a formidable hurricane was bearing down on South Florida.

I guess I'll just never understand how a 60-70 mph TS that floods many areas and dumps 15-20+ inches of rain is a typical summer storm...

What model is showing that much rain? The GFS which has the storm right over South Florida shows 4-5 inches at most for most of the area but not 15-20 inches.

4/5 inches? Folks PLEASE stick to the official forecast which is near 10 inches instead of following individual model runs every 4-6hrs.

[jlauderdal]

I guess I'll just never understand how a 60-70 mph TS that floods many areas and dumps 15-20+ inches of rain is a typical summer storm...

What model is showing that much rain? The GFS which has the storm right over South Florida shows 4-5 inches at most for most of the area but not 15-20 inches.

4/5 inches? Folks stick to the official forecast which is near 10 inches.

https://i.postimg.cc/1R7DrvnM/6-F8-F48-F8-C41-F-4-B78-8-DB4-02-ABF0708037.jpg

gatorcane knows how rain totals work, you get under training for a few hours in Florida and you end up with 6-8 inches and add that up to the event total and you go over 10 easily, we will see what happens...don't just rely on model forecasts for the real weather

[TheStormExpert]

I guess I'll just never understand how a 60-70 mph TS that floods many areas and dumps 15-20+ inches of rain is a typical summer storm...

What model is showing that much rain? The GFS which has the storm right over South Florida shows 4-5 inches at most for most of the area but not 15-20 inches.

4/5 inches? Folks PLEASE stick to the official forecast which is near 10 inches instead of following individual model runs every 4-6hrs.

https://i.postimg.cc/1R7DrvnM/6-F8-F48-F8-C41-F-4-B78-8-DB4-02-ABF0708037.jpg

The general consensus for South Florida seems to be 3-10 inches of rain depending where you are in South Florida. May be more if you get stuck under a training band.

[SFLcane]

Tcvn is now north of the nhc forecast expecting a northward shift in track at 10am.

[NDG]

Winds in Cayman Islands have switched from the East meaning that the circulation seen on radar is also at the surface or at least very close to the mid level circulation, so the LLC will be passing if not south of They Caymans over the Caymans. The 12z best track position was well to the W of the Cayman Islands.
Throw the 12z models coming out soon out the window!