Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)

[Sanibel]

The same La Nina/Southern Oscillation favorable phase that brought Zeta and Eta are expected to simmer up another cyclone in the coming week in the same spot in the Caribbean...

The latent conditions are once again unusually favorable...

[MetroMike]

To back that up the 0z CMC has a TC coming from the South into Cuba around the 17th Nov.

[aspen]

The CMC is the most aggressive model with this system and has it start to form between 4-5 days out. The GFS has kept any vorticity in the Caribbean tangled up and stretched out with some north of the Antilles, and the Euro is as bearish as normal.

[Sanibel]

If it happens it will be a record season...

[Ryxn]

If it happens it will be a record season...

The area in the mid-Atlantic will likely be the record-breaking 29th tropical or subtropical storm.

This storm, if named, would make 2020 the first Atlantic Hurricane Season to feature 30 or more named storms.

Would be one of many many records already broken this year.

[cainjamin]

12z GFS run makes this yet another strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean.

[crownweather]

Now being highlighted in the TWO.

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea,
where an area of low pressure could form in a few days.
Environmental conditions may be conducive for at least gradual
development thereafter while the system moves slowly westward
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

Now being highlighted in the TWO.

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea,
where an area of low pressure could form in a few days.
Environmental conditions may be conducive for at least gradual
development thereafter while the system moves slowly westward
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Oh boy, here we go again. And I thought Eta was gonna be the last big Caribbean system...looks like I could be wrong.

[kevin]

Here we go again. And I thought Eta would surely be this season's last major hurricane, but now I'm not so sure anymore. Of course it's important to remember that no system has formed yet, but with an MPI in the WCar that once again supports anything up to a cat 5 and considering how the season has been going so far, I have a bad feeling about this one. 12z GFS below, storm formation at 120 hours. Impacts CA/Yucatan as a cat 3/4 near the end of the run.

[SFLcane]

Looks like it would head into the Yucatán.

[kevin]

The GFS operational run isn't the only member that shows significant development. At least 8 members have a significant hurricane in the WCar around 220 - 240 hours. Models will change a lot over the next few days, but this is one to keep an eye on. Especially since both CMC and GFS develop it so if it's a phantom it's not a 'GFS only' phantom.

[Spacecoast]

Here we go again.
I liked the 'old normal' better....

[CyclonicFury]

12z EPS is quite active!

[AutoPenalti]

I wonder where this would go.

[aspen]

12z HWRF-P shows a weak TC developing by 114-126 hours out.

[kevin]

Any final itensity estimate is premature at this stage, but I think there is pretty good model consensus that some system (or at least a low) will form around 120 hours from now. Atm we have GFS, CMC, HWRF. While the euro doesn't develop it, it also shows a low entering the WCar at 144 hours. Whatever this might become, it doesn't look like a phantom. Do we have a trackable source atm or does the source still have to form?

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1325563580075413505

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea,
where an area of low pressure could form in a few days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development as the system moves slowly westward through the end of
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[underthwx]

Well... 30 per cent at 7 pm... Seems more like September than November!

[aspen]

There could be a weak TC forming as early as Thursday/Friday in the central-ish Caribbean. From there, several possibilities emerge. Some models show it lingering around for a while, others show a straightforward track into Central America. Some of the runs that have it linger keep it weak for a while before bombing out, apparently due to some drier air nearby.