ATL: IOTA - Models

[Iceresistance]

CAT 4 155 mph HMON at end of the run

[Iceresistance]

HWRF is starting to show itself

[LarryWx]

The Happy Hour King and his ensembles say the HWRF and HMON are on crack:

[SFLcane]

The Happy Hour King and his ensembles say the HWRF and HMON are on crack:

https://i.imgur.com/vuhWSdB.png

https://i.imgur.com/VTguyBv.png

Makes perfect sense to me conditions are very favorable as long as it stays south. HWRF gave up the idea to head NW unfortunately looks pretty bad for those in CA once again.

[gatorcane]

[cycloneye]

HWRF and HMON stand alone from the majority.

[Iceresistance]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/J07yr32v/hwrf-sat-IR-98-L-21.png

Like, closer to 100-110 knots?

[Iceresistance]

How is the cool pool?

[Iceresistance]

HWRF and HMON stand alone from the majority.

https://i.imgur.com/lpqCd5u.png

What if it goes south, but then shoots north? Crazier things has happened before with hurricanes. (Joaquin of 2015 was crazy)

[Spacecoast]

0z Spaghetti from TA- does not include ECM ens
(White is consensus)

0Z from HFIP - includes HAFS, NOAA GSL, and Physics v0/v1
(Black is old ETA track)

[LarryWx]

The Happy Hour King and his ensembles say the HWRF and HMON are on crack:

https://i.imgur.com/vuhWSdB.png

https://i.imgur.com/VTguyBv.png

Makes perfect sense to me conditions are very favorable as long as it stays south. HWRF gave up the idea to head NW unfortunately looks pretty bad for those in CA once again.

However, the 18z HWRF is still well north of the consensus with enough NW to WNW movement to at least keep it far enough north of Honduras to keep them from getting hit hard again.

[blp]

Less of a SW bend on 18z Euro ensembles compared to 12z now most reach Belize instead of EPAC.

18z



12z

[gatorcane]

Less of a SW bend on 18z Euro ensembles compared to 12z now most reach Belize instead of EPAC.

18z
https://i.ibb.co/Mhhj49x/ecens-2020-11-12-18-Z-144-24-672-261-768-7-007-293-661-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

12z
https://i.ibb.co/qJNNfQ3/ecens-2020-11-12-12-Z-144-24-672-261-768-7-007-293-661-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

The stronger ensembles are north

[ClarCari]

I think model support here suggests a much higher chance of this staying away from the upper-gulf than Eta’s early guidance (knock on wooooooood).

Are any of the models taking into account dry air from the north or is that expected to be a non-issue a day or so from now?

[caneseddy]

Hopefully this doesn’t turn into another Hurricane Hattie (latest Cat 5 to form before 1932 Cuba was reanalyzed) for Belize if it heads their way....

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[aspen]

The 00z intensity guidance shows that the HWRF once again takes a while before bombing Iota out into a Cat 4, and the HMON goes nuclear with a 155 kt Category 5 peak.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HMON is on crack.

[aspen]

HMON is on crack.

https://i.imgur.com/PTHeqD4.png

I’m half expecting a 200+ kt crack run of the HMON that crashes the model just like the HWRF and its 318 kt/777 mbar run for Mangkhut.

[Iceresistance]

The midnght models are starting to run

[Iceresistance]

Jeez, GFS is aggressive

960 MB for 98L