ATL: IOTA - Models
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
CAT 4 155 mph HMON at end of the run
Last edited by Iceresistance on Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HWRF is starting to show itself
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The Happy Hour King and his ensembles say the HWRF and HMON are on crack:
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
LarryWx wrote:The Happy Hour King and his ensembles say the HWRF and HMON are on crack:
https://i.imgur.com/vuhWSdB.png
https://i.imgur.com/VTguyBv.png
Makes perfect sense to me conditions are very favorable as long as it stays south. HWRF gave up the idea to head NW unfortunately looks pretty bad for those in CA once again.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HWRF and HMON stand alone from the majority.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Like, closer to 100-110 knots?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
How is the cool pool?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
What if it goes south, but then shoots north? Crazier things has happened before with hurricanes. (Joaquin of 2015 was crazy)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
0z Spaghetti from TA- does not include ECM ens
(White is consensus)
0Z from HFIP - includes HAFS, NOAA GSL, and Physics v0/v1
(Black is old ETA track)
(White is consensus)
0Z from HFIP - includes HAFS, NOAA GSL, and Physics v0/v1
(Black is old ETA track)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SFLcane wrote:LarryWx wrote:The Happy Hour King and his ensembles say the HWRF and HMON are on crack:
https://i.imgur.com/vuhWSdB.png
https://i.imgur.com/VTguyBv.png
Makes perfect sense to me conditions are very favorable as long as it stays south. HWRF gave up the idea to head NW unfortunately looks pretty bad for those in CA once again.
However, the 18z HWRF is still well north of the consensus with enough NW to WNW movement to at least keep it far enough north of Honduras to keep them from getting hit hard again.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Less of a SW bend on 18z Euro ensembles compared to 12z now most reach Belize instead of EPAC.
18z
12z
18z
12z
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
blp wrote:Less of a SW bend on 18z Euro ensembles compared to 12z now most reach Belize instead of EPAC.
18z
https://i.ibb.co/Mhhj49x/ecens-2020-11-12-18-Z-144-24-672-261-768-7-007-293-661-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
12z
https://i.ibb.co/qJNNfQ3/ecens-2020-11-12-12-Z-144-24-672-261-768-7-007-293-661-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
The stronger ensembles are north
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
I think model support here suggests a much higher chance of this staying away from the upper-gulf than Eta’s early guidance (knock on wooooooood).
Are any of the models taking into account dry air from the north or is that expected to be a non-issue a day or so from now?
Are any of the models taking into account dry air from the north or is that expected to be a non-issue a day or so from now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Hopefully this doesn’t turn into another Hurricane Hattie (latest Cat 5 to form before 1932 Cuba was reanalyzed) for Belize if it heads their way....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The 00z intensity guidance shows that the HWRF once again takes a while before bombing Iota out into a Cat 4, and the HMON goes nuclear with a 155 kt Category 5 peak.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HMON is on crack.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
I’m half expecting a 200+ kt crack run of the HMON that crashes the model just like the HWRF and its 318 kt/777 mbar run for Mangkhut.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The midnght models are starting to run
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Jeez, GFS is aggressive
960 MB for 98L
960 MB for 98L
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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