ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

NHC now has Iota a Cat.2 to 100mph. Quite the jump from current recon data but understandable as this thing isn’t plateauing anytime soon. Forecast peak remains the same..for now.

The intermediate advisory does not have discussions.

[Iceresistance]

It's mid-November for Pete's sake. If it can reach that crazy Category 5 past midnight tonight, it would mean there would be a Category 5 closer to DECEMBER than October. That would be some next level stuff. Very 2020 tho...

All these records. . . are falling like dominoes . . . as if they were nothing

[ClarCari]

NHC now has Iota a Cat.2 to 100mph. Quite the jump from current recon data but understandable as this thing isn’t plateauing anytime soon. Forecast peak remains the same..for now.

The intermediate advisory does not have discussions.

There is a Forecast Advisory released with Intermediate and Full advisories.

[hipshot]

964 MB

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0431A-IOTA_dropsonde2_20201115-2251.png

I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

[Iceresistance]

964 MB

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0431A-IOTA_dropsonde2_20201115-2251.png

I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

The red lines are the wind speed, & the green lines are the humidity, there are details about it to the right on the data sheet.

[Iceresistance]

The eye is starting to look better on IR

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

While Eta was certainly a powerful storm, it officially peaked at 923 mb and 150 mph/130kt, which is high-end Category 4 intensity. Of course, this could change with post-season analysis, but as of now those are the official numbers.

[kevin]

New pass 959.4 mbar, 3.4 mbar drop in about one hour.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

964 MB

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0431A-IOTA_dropsonde2_20201115-2251.png

I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

The red lines are the wind speed, & the green lines are the humidity, there are details about it to the right on the data sheet.

Apologies in advance for the double-post, but correction - the red line located on the chart (which is a simplified skew-T diagram) is actually the recorded air temperature (and extrapolated between data points), while the green line is the dewpoint. The winds at each point are given by the wind barbs on the right side of the chart. There's also a helpful summary given on the right side for the entire dropsonde.

[aspen]

New pass 959.4 mbar, 2.8 mbar drop in about one hour.

I calculated 3.04 mb/hr: 962.8 mbar at 22:51z to 959.4 mbar at 23:58z. By the time the next recon plane arrives, Iota should be sub-950.

[Ryxn]

Storms in the Caribbean have really liked rapidly/explosively intensifying on Mondays lately. First Delta on Mon, Oct 5 (explosive) then Zeta on Mon, Oct 26 (rapid) then Eta on Mon, Nov 2 (explosive), and now likely Iota tomorrow Mon, Nov 16 and its already started its rapid intensification which could change to explosive tomorrow...

Mondays am I right?

Hopefully we won't be back next Monday the 23rd with Major Hurricane Kappa.....but don't tempt mama A..

[Sanibel]

I might be wrong but I think the 2020 Cinderella coach just turned back in to a pumpkin and we might not see the intensity some are predicting...

[Cunxi Huang]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1328128065742934017

[supercane4867]

Eye drop suggests 961mb. 3mb lower than previous.

[ClarCari]

Everything is indicative of an EWRC these days...

[NDG]

Dropsonde 962 mb, continues with its ~2 mb drop per hour.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1328128065742934017

This kid has no idea.

[Keldeo1997]

Major Hurricane force not to far from the surface

[ClarCari]

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1328128065742934017

This kid has no idea.

I don’t mean to blast #wxtwitter but it’s best to stay away from most on there as they almost alwayssss see any plateau of intensity, eye getting covered up, or smaller, or anything and start throwing out “!!!EWRC!!!”.

Though of course I agree that the timing of them is tricky to predict.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1328128065742934017

This kid has no idea.

Hi. "This kid" here. What issue do you have with my post? The microwave pass is suggestive of an EWRC sooner rather than later. That doesn't mean it's a certainty, the band could break down or be slower to congeal into a solidified secondary eyewall. These things are hard to predict. Iota will be a very strong storm at landfall regardless.