ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#681 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:46 pm

ClarCari wrote:NHC now has Iota a Cat.2 to 100mph. Quite the jump from current recon data but understandable as this thing isn’t plateauing anytime soon. Forecast peak remains the same..for now.

The intermediate advisory does not have discussions.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#682 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:47 pm

Ryxn wrote:It's mid-November for Pete's sake. If it can reach that crazy Category 5 past midnight tonight, it would mean there would be a Category 5 closer to DECEMBER than October. That would be some next level stuff. Very 2020 tho...

All these records. . . are falling like dominoes . . . as if they were nothing
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#683 Postby ClarCari » Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
ClarCari wrote:NHC now has Iota a Cat.2 to 100mph. Quite the jump from current recon data but understandable as this thing isn’t plateauing anytime soon. Forecast peak remains the same..for now.

The intermediate advisory does not have discussions.

There is a Forecast Advisory released with Intermediate and Full advisories.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#684 Postby hipshot » Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:50 pm



I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#685 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:53 pm

hipshot wrote:


I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

The red lines are the wind speed, & the green lines are the humidity, there are details about it to the right on the data sheet.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#686 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:55 pm

The eye is starting to look better on IR

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#687 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:00 pm

While Eta was certainly a powerful storm, it officially peaked at 923 mb and 150 mph/130kt, which is high-end Category 4 intensity. Of course, this could change with post-season analysis, but as of now those are the official numbers.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#688 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:01 pm

New pass 959.4 mbar, 3.4 mbar drop in about one hour.
Last edited by kevin on Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#689 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:04 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
hipshot wrote:


I see these plots all the time, what is the difference between the red and green lines?

The red lines are the wind speed, & the green lines are the humidity, there are details about it to the right on the data sheet.

Apologies in advance for the double-post, but correction - the red line located on the chart (which is a simplified skew-T diagram) is actually the recorded air temperature (and extrapolated between data points), while the green line is the dewpoint. The winds at each point are given by the wind barbs on the right side of the chart. There's also a helpful summary given on the right side for the entire dropsonde.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#690 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:05 pm

kevin wrote:New pass 959.4 mbar, 2.8 mbar drop in about one hour.

I calculated 3.04 mb/hr: 962.8 mbar at 22:51z to 959.4 mbar at 23:58z. By the time the next recon plane arrives, Iota should be sub-950.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#691 Postby Ryxn » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:07 pm

Storms in the Caribbean have really liked rapidly/explosively intensifying on Mondays lately. First Delta on Mon, Oct 5 (explosive) then Zeta on Mon, Oct 26 (rapid) then Eta on Mon, Nov 2 (explosive), and now likely Iota tomorrow Mon, Nov 16 and its already started its rapid intensification which could change to explosive tomorrow...

Mondays am I right?

Hopefully we won't be back next Monday the 23rd with Major Hurricane Kappa.....but don't tempt mama A..
Last edited by Ryxn on Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#692 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:08 pm

I might be wrong but I think the 2020 Cinderella coach just turned back in to a pumpkin and we might not see the intensity some are predicting...
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#693 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:16 pm

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#694 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:18 pm

Eye drop suggests 961mb. 3mb lower than previous.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#695 Postby ClarCari » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:18 pm

Everything is indicative of an EWRC these days...
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#696 Postby NDG » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:19 pm

Dropsonde 962 mb, continues with its ~2 mb drop per hour.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#697 Postby NDG » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:20 pm

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#698 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:21 pm

Image

Major Hurricane force not to far from the surface
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#699 Postby ClarCari » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:23 pm

NDG wrote:


This kid has no idea.


I don’t mean to blast #wxtwitter but it’s best to stay away from most on there as they almost alwayssss see any plateau of intensity, eye getting covered up, or smaller, or anything and start throwing out “!!!EWRC!!!”.

Though of course I agree that the timing of them is tricky to predict. :lol:
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#700 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:27 pm

NDG wrote:


This kid has no idea.

Hi. "This kid" here. What issue do you have with my post? The microwave pass is suggestive of an EWRC sooner rather than later. That doesn't mean it's a certainty, the band could break down or be slower to congeal into a solidified secondary eyewall. These things are hard to predict. Iota will be a very strong storm at landfall regardless.
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