Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

Latest update from FWD, it sounds like the are just going with "meh, any snow will be melting with no road impacts so no advisories"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErTZBelXEAMRaiL?format=jpg&name=large

Personally I think they may be a bit too low with their totals from about Hillsboro to just north of Temple. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4-6" in that area if 8-1 ratios occur. If they get 10-1 then it would be even higher.

Why do they have such lower amounts between Gatesville and Fairfield anyway? It doesn't make sense if that's the low track it would seem there would be one large heavy bullseye

[bubba hotep]

Snow ratios are very important to talk about. Now the NWS probably isn't looking at Kuchera (I've seen a Wilmington, OH forecaster laugh at that for some reason even though it's just reading the models sampled sounding and converting that into snow ratios.) but Kuchera on both the GFS and 0z CMC shows very poor ratios for the Metroplex, especially the northern Metro. Even in the jackpot areas the CMC and GFS are showing 7/8-1 ratios. It's not until after the event around 12z Monday when the better snow ratios occur. I wouldn't call this a failure mode per say, but it does make the 10-1 maps misleading.

10:1 maps in my opinion are only good for highlighting potential coverage and how much can come out of the sky, nothing about actual accumulation. There are so many other factors in play, but one thing I will say is this so unusual in that the air above is much colder than our typical events in North Texas with such a set up. It's usually borderline at 850mb so ratios may be higher liquid-dendritic growth. Even 2010 we were barely cold enough above. 500mb temps here is -25 to -27C.

850s are cold, but not cold enough to be in the DGZ. I've been going through some Skew-ts and the DGZs are pretty shallow on both global and mesoscale models. In some cases the DGZ is also a bit dry (CMC). Now assuming some of the models are too warm at the surface, then a good estimate for snow ratios would be nearby areas where the models have surface temps near freezing and similar DGZs. It would not surprise me if most of DFW saw snow ratios of 6-1 to 8-1. The higher snow ratios will be to that south closer to the low where there are better dynamics. DFW really needs that low further north to get in on the good dynamics. If I had to issue a widespread forecast for DFW I'd say 1-3" of snow with locally higher accumulations to the south. If the models happen to be too dry, then it's possible that gets bumped up to 3-6" so we'll see what upper air analysis shows us on Sunday.

Forecasting snow is no easy challenge and forecast bust (both high and low) are often times the norm, outside of slam dunk setups. You can drive yourself mad looking at everything trying to figure out a call

[Ntxw]

Forecasting snow is no easy challenge and forecast bust (both high and low) are often times the norm, outside of slam dunk setups. You can drive yourself mad looking at everything trying to figure out a call

What do you mean this has been a slam dunk forecast .

Seriously, we've looked at this for over a week and some models, if you correct for bias, has shown potential. We've seen oh so many fade away but this one has held up well considering what we usually work with. It's never going to get any easier than this.

[bubba hotep]

12z SPC HREF is still running but does seem to be much more enthusiastic than 00z. I know that SPC loves the HREF for svr wx outlooks but I'm not sure how well it performs with winter wx.

[Haris]

Wow

[TropicalTundra]

Wow

I’m right on the 13 inch bullseye

[Brent]

10:1 maps in my opinion are only good for highlighting potential coverage and how much can come out of the sky, nothing about actual accumulation. There are so many other factors in play, but one thing I will say is this so unusual in that the air above is much colder than our typical events in North Texas with such a set up. It's usually borderline at 850mb so ratios may be higher liquid-dendritic growth. Even 2010 we were barely cold enough above. 500mb temps here is -25 to -27C.

850s are cold, but not cold enough to be in the DGZ. I've been going through some Skew-ts and the DGZs are pretty shallow on both global and mesoscale models. In some cases the DGZ is also a bit dry (CMC). Now assuming some of the models are too warm at the surface, then a good estimate for snow ratios would be nearby areas where the models have surface temps near freezing and similar DGZs. It would not surprise me if most of DFW saw snow ratios of 6-1 to 8-1. The higher snow ratios will be to that south closer to the low where there are better dynamics. DFW really needs that low further north to get in on the good dynamics. If I had to issue a widespread forecast for DFW I'd say 1-3" of snow with locally higher accumulations to the south. If the models happen to be too dry, then it's possible that gets bumped up to 3-6" so we'll see what upper air analysis shows us on Sunday.

Forecasting snow is no easy challenge and forecast bust (both high and low) are often times the norm, outside of slam dunk setups. You can drive yourself mad looking at everything trying to figure out a call

yeah I did that when i chased to Abilene... spent so much time looking at every model trying to figure out the heavier snow bands

Didnt do any good it was a nice snowfall but about half what I expected

[Ralph's Weather]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/ZXW47yL/C75-DECA0-CBE4-4939-A9-A7-AC137-B0-A5-C33.png [/url]

Wow

Even if you multiply by .75 to account for lower ratios it's still very impressive. Though as has been said ratios under the ULL may be closer to 10:1.

[Ntxw]

Satellite IR view. Storm is rounding the 4 corners and some snow in Colorado. Panhandle and South Plains juiced up.

[EnnisTx]

Satellite IR view. Storm is rounding the 4 corners and some snow in Colorado. Panhandle and South Plains juiced up.

https://i.imgur.com/U2Z3i4x.gif

She's ramping up and headed for the Lone Star State. Let's all hope she "Messes" with Texas!

[Ntxw]

FYI a little off topic models have some cold air moving down in about a week. No snow on them right now, but there is some energy and given the blocking we have seen this year and the how the Southern Plains have been a good target, who knows what could happen? I mean Oklahoma saw back to back systems about a week apart and Abilene will be on that list too.

[rwfromkansas]

I kind of hate this period when it’s the anxious waiting. Gonna pull out the alcohol today for a margarita tonight that usually collects dust. Not much use for models now that it’s close to now casting.

[EnnisTx]

Probably get scolded for posting this, but......

Let's not forget what makes this crazy model watching and discussion/-removed- all possible. Thanks to all that participate and make it all possible, especially the Pro Mets. and all us want to be'



Thanks for donating $60.00 USD to
storm2kdkj@gmail.com

[TropicalTundra]

At this point TWC app is just teasing me

[Haris]

As we await the storm on this last day, it is still hard to believe we made it this close with this type of a look. What an image! Noreaster of the south type look!

[TexasF6]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/ZXW47yL/C75-DECA0-CBE4-4939-A9-A7-AC137-B0-A5-C33.png [/url]

Wow

This. Is. BEAUTIFUL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes Yes Yasssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#ChampTheChargerTime #GreyGooseSwilling? #KnockOnWood

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/LnKtK8D/ecmwf-deterministic-tx-instant-ptype-0312400.png [/url]

As we await the storm on this last day, it is still hard to believe we made it this close with this type of a look. What an image! Noreaster of the south type look!

What a beauty we don't get these very often that's for sure

[bubba hotep]

Texas Tech WRF showing a band of heavy snow moving across DFW with the sounding showing surface temp near 32F. Also, the dry layer was eroded well before this band moves in.

[Ntxw]

Texas Tech WRF showing a band of heavy snow moving across DFW with the sounding showing surface temp near 32F. Also, the dry layer was eroded well before this band moves in.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/current_run/d02_det_sfc_dbz_f29.png

This initial band that comes through in the first wave tomorrow morning is the one to watch as you mentioned above. It could be piece that breaks the forecast quickly.

[Brent]

Texas Tech WRF showing a band of heavy snow moving across DFW with the sounding showing surface temp near 32F. Also, the dry layer was eroded well before this band moves in.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/current_run/d02_det_sfc_dbz_f29.png

How does that change to rain later lower rates?

That sounds eerily like February 2010 tbh