Texas Winter 2020-2021

[TheProfessor]

All of this is true, but that sounding is showing if no other storms already went over that area.

Yes, the threat will be lower if there is too much clouds, previous storms, less wind shear, less CAPE & if the area is capped.

But, there is always a chance that the cap breaks & ruptures (When a storm breaks the cap, it can rupture & allow more storms to form, this happened last year when a powerful supercell broke the cap & more storms followed suit afterword) and chances can't be taken with convective activity because they are very unpredictable on how strong they can be & can suddenly change direction.

I'm telling you that the sounding you posted is contaminated, the dewpoint being right on the temperature line near the surface and the temperature inversion both suggests this. The 12z GFS at this moment also shows precipitation over Dallas at that moment. That's what is causing the contamination. This means that we can't really get a good gage on what the sounding you posted is telling us because it's being affected by ongoing precipitation. In this case the rain is causing a temperature inversion, which lessens the parameters for severe weather on a sounding.

If the opposite were true and the sounding wasn't contaminated then the severe weather risk would be minimalized because of the temperature inversion at the surface and weak low level lapse rates (caused by the inversion.).

Oh, I see now

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh60-60.gif

When a Sounding is looking crazy, double-check the radar to see if it is a contaminated sounding, if it is (Example above), then the true threat is lower. But if it is not, the unthinkable may happen.

No, you can get a crazy sounding without it being contaminated. A contaminated sounding just means that the atmosphere has been contaminated (by rain) and the sounding is usually overly saturated. In Peak spring this may not even result in a temperature inversion, but the low level dewpoint depression will be obvious (and near zero). In the case of peak Spring, having a saturated sounding can still show a more limited event as you typically want midlevel dry air (around the 700mb level) and above during a severe weather even. So in most cases a contaminated sounding will actually result in showing a more limited event than a crazy one. If a contaminated sounding is showing the possibility of a high end event, then it's likely if the sounding wasn't contaminated it would show something even more severe.

[Iceresistance]

I'm telling you that the sounding you posted is contaminated, the dewpoint being right on the temperature line near the surface and the temperature inversion both suggests this. The 12z GFS at this moment also shows precipitation over Dallas at that moment. That's what is causing the contamination. This means that we can't really get a good gage on what the sounding you posted is telling us because it's being affected by ongoing precipitation. In this case the rain is causing a temperature inversion, which lessens the parameters for severe weather on a sounding.

If the opposite were true and the sounding wasn't contaminated then the severe weather risk would be minimalized because of the temperature inversion at the surface and weak low level lapse rates (caused by the inversion.).

Oh, I see now

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh60-60.gif

When a Sounding is looking crazy, double-check the radar to see if it is a contaminated sounding, if it is (Example above), then the true threat is lower. But if it is not, the unthinkable may happen.

No, you can get a crazy sounding without it being contaminated. A contaminated sounding just means that the atmosphere has been contaminated (by rain) and the sounding is usually overly saturated. In Peak spring this may not even result in a temperature inversion, but the low level dewpoint depression will be obvious (and near zero). In the case of peak Spring, having a saturated sounding can still show a more limited event as you typically want midlevel dry air (around the 700mb level) and above during a severe weather even. So in most cases a contaminated sounding will actually result in showing a more limited event than a crazy one. If a contaminated sounding is showing the possibility of a high end event, then it's likely if the sounding wasn't contaminated it would show something even more severe.

True, there were a LOT of crazy soundings in 2019, especially in Oklahoma. And that led to the High Risk in May.

[Brent]

Winter returns in February?

[Cerlin]

Winter returns in February?
https://i.ibb.co/5FJKvDK/gfs-asnow-scus-55.png

GFS has been showing a cold shot there for a few runs now. Could potentially be a return to winter!

[somethingfunny]

Anecdotally speaking, our winter snow season really is just the first and second weeks of February. So glad it's coming into range and we at least have a cold dump possible for it

[gpsnowman]

Nice to see a good sign this early a.m. I'm sure the big snow hole over Oklahoma will fill in quite nicely.

[bubba hotep]

Slight risk for tomorrow mostly for a hail threat.

[bubba hotep]

Some signs showing up in the longer range ensembles that the Pacific jet retraction / pattern retrograde will be temporary and colder conditions should return to Texas by the 2nd week of February. This is consistent with some of the SSW analogs that showed a significant lag in the cold response over N. America following the SSW event.

[vbhoutex]

Winter returns in February?
https://i.ibb.co/5FJKvDK/gfs-asnow-scus-55.png

That snow needs to move a few more counties South for Houston proper to get any. Teaser

[gpsnowman]

Winter or not thunderstorms are always great. An overnight event for most but I hope I wake early enough Monday to witness the skinny line.

[TexasBreeze]

Looks like Lake Charles can see what comes from southeast Texas and surrounding areas on the LCH radar again since repairs are finished from Hurricane Laura. Good thing ahead of storm season and the next hurricane season.

https://www.weather.gov/news/012221-lake-charles-radar

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

Go from exciting times to doom and gloom just like that Gotta love it.

This isn't getting anyone hyped lol

GEFS and Euro EPS are in pretty good agreement that things won't get as bad as the models were showing last week. In fact, the pattern flips back pretty quickly and I wouldn't be surprised to see some winter wx threats showing up beyond the 7 - 10 day range.

[HockeyTx82]

Will all this fog hanging around and lack of heating reduce the severe threat later? It's 55 and misting with fog here still right now.

[gpsnowman]

Will all this fog hanging around and lack of heating reduce the severe threat later? It's 55 and misting with fog here still right now.

A warm front is due later this afternoon with the first round of storms. It should start warming up during this time. It's still pretty cool oitside so it will have to warm up quickly. Then a cold front blows in overnight triggering the severe potential.

[HockeyTx82]

Will all this fog hanging around and lack of heating reduce the severe threat later? It's 55 and misting with fog here still right now.

A warm front is due later this afternoon with the first round of storms. It should start warming up during this time. It's still pretty cool oitside so it will have to warm up quickly. Then a cold front blows in overnight triggering the severe potential.

Got it, guess just wait and see

[cheezyWXguy]

The parameter space looks interesting just ahead of the line on hrrr tonight with srh near 400, but it doesn’t do much in terms of producing storms near dfw. Nam isn’t very enthusiastic either, but if the line is potent, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a qlcs spin up or two somewhere in ntx, probably south of the metro.

[TheProfessor]

SREF SigTor really likes the triple point for this event, could be interesting near the low pressure.

[HockeyTx82]

SREF SigTor really likes the triple point for this event, could be interesting near the low pressure.

Timing and location? What are you seeing exactly?

[TheProfessor]

SREF SigTor really likes the triple point for this event, could be interesting near the low pressure.

Timing and location? What are you seeing exactly?

If the SREF is to be believed, then the best parameters would be north and west of DFW around midnight through 6 AM. The question is if there will actually be discrete or semi-discrete storms that could take advantage. If the low ends up further south or southeast then everything would shift closer to DFW.