Iceresistance wrote:TheProfessor wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
All of this is true, but that sounding is showing if no other storms already went over that area.
Yes, the threat will be lower if there is too much clouds, previous storms, less wind shear, less CAPE & if the area is capped.
But, there is always a chance that the cap breaks & ruptures (When a storm breaks the cap, it can rupture & allow more storms to form, this happened last year when a powerful supercell broke the cap & more storms followed suit afterword) and chances can't be taken with convective activity because they are very unpredictable on how strong they can be & can suddenly change direction.
I'm telling you that the sounding you posted is contaminated, the dewpoint being right on the temperature line near the surface and the temperature inversion both suggests this. The 12z GFS at this moment also shows precipitation over Dallas at that moment. That's what is causing the contamination. This means that we can't really get a good gage on what the sounding you posted is telling us because it's being affected by ongoing precipitation. In this case the rain is causing a temperature inversion, which lessens the parameters for severe weather on a sounding.
If the opposite were true and the sounding wasn't contaminated then the severe weather risk would be minimalized because of the temperature inversion at the surface and weak low level lapse rates (caused by the inversion.).
Oh, I see now
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh60-60.gif
When a Sounding is looking crazy, double-check the radar to see if it is a contaminated sounding, if it is (Example above), then the true threat is lower. But if it is not, the unthinkable may happen.
No, you can get a crazy sounding without it being contaminated. A contaminated sounding just means that the atmosphere has been contaminated (by rain) and the sounding is usually overly saturated. In Peak spring this may not even result in a temperature inversion, but the low level dewpoint depression will be obvious (and near zero). In the case of peak Spring, having a saturated sounding can still show a more limited event as you typically want midlevel dry air (around the 700mb level) and above during a severe weather even. So in most cases a contaminated sounding will actually result in showing a more limited event than a crazy one. If a contaminated sounding is showing the possibility of a high end event, then it's likely if the sounding wasn't contaminated it would show something even more severe.