Texas Winter 2020-2021

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2621 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:28 pm

I notice that the GFS & ECMWF 2m temps for TX late next week are EXTREMELY far apart. Euro only has temps a little below freezing in D-FW next Wed-Fri. GFS has an ice age over TX, with highs below freezing Sun-Tue (beyond 10 days). It even has highs below freezing in Houston. Let's hope it's wrong. Such temps could cause quite a bit of damage to water mains and to homes (water pipes in attics).
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2622 Postby WinterMax » Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:I notice that the GFS & ECMWF 2m temps for TX late next week are EXTREMELY far apart. Euro only has temps a little below freezing in D-FW next Wed-Fri. GFS has an ice age over TX, with highs below freezing Sun-Tue (beyond 10 days). It even has highs below freezing in Houston. Let's hope it's wrong. Such temps could cause quite a bit of damage to water mains and to homes (water pipes in attics).


Look forward to your opinions as this unfolds in the coming days. It maybe all gone by the next run though, lol.

I agree with you, and I would venture to say that kind of sustained cold would likely cause loss of life somewhere
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2623 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:I notice that the GFS & ECMWF 2m temps for TX late next week are EXTREMELY far apart. Euro only has temps a little below freezing in D-FW next Wed-Fri. GFS has an ice age over TX, with highs below freezing Sun-Tue (beyond 10 days). It even has highs below freezing in Houston. Let's hope it's wrong. Such temps could cause quite a bit of damage to water mains and to homes (water pipes in attics).

Also the CMC when compared to the GFS & the Euro.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2624 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:44 pm

The Most Realistic model for the 12z run is the ECMWF (Euro) model since all others call for 20 Below Zero in the Midwest while the Euro says down to 10 Below, which is more likely to happen.

But the Most Aggressive ones are the GFS & CMC

CMC for extreme Temperatures (Down to 40 Below Zero in the Dakotas)

GFS for Snow (Big winter storm down to the Gulf)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2625 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:45 pm

Here's a GFS meteogram starting next Saturday. GFS has temps below freezing across Houston for 84 hrs. Scary thing is the Canadian 12Z run is 14 deg colder for Houston next Saturday morning (15F vs. 29F). I sure hope not, but it may be time to stock up on some pipe insulation that will be impossible to find if that's the forecast next week. The GFS has NOT been doing well beyond 3-5 days. Euro has been much better.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2626 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:48 pm

Great points. I think its helpful to look for reasons why this extreme cold won't happen as much as the support it will. Wxman57 usually keeps us grounded but as a community its human nature to show examples of what we want to happen and ignoring what doesn't support our desired outcome

I want cold and snow but if I cant get snow, then I for one want a week of big time cold and then it can be spring. I just want to feel winter a bit before it ends.

Edit: Also like the summary of models Iceresistance has done a couple times like above. Its too early for me to model hop for every run this far out but I certainly appreciate the folks that do.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2627 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:34 pm

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2628 Postby Haris » Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?



Long way to go buddy, you'll drive yourself nuts if you look at every single run. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2629 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:49 pm

Iceresistance wrote:18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?


Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2630 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:54 pm

Haris wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?



Long way to go buddy, you'll drive yourself nuts if you look at every single run. :wink:

True, I'm a Snow & Cold Lover in the winter . . . :lol:
Last edited by Iceresistance on Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2631 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:55 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?


Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.

The Euro is usually only 12z & 0z, unless there is a site that also includes the 6z & 18z runs . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2632 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:55 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?


Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.


Team Euro, I'm Team America :flag:

:wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2633 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:05 pm

Got up to 64°F today at my house, lots of cirrus clouds overhead.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2634 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:10 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?


Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.


yeah I'm definitely wait and see at this point I mean a few days ago it was gonna be cold Sunday... :roll: its still almost a week out
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2635 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:14 pm

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?


Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.


yeah I'm definitely wait and see at this point I mean a few days ago it was gonna be cold Sunday... :roll: its still almost a week out


Right now, it's the Waiting Game.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2636 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:26 pm

KWTV-News 9 has put out their 9-Day forecast at the 4:15 PM weather

He said the Temperatures are more likely to be COLDER than forecasted right now

(Look at the Low next Wednesday, 9°F!) :cold: :froze: :cold:

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2637 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:30 pm

Iceresistance wrote:KWTV-News 9 has put out their 9-Day forecast at the 4:15 PM weather

He said the Temperatures are more likely to be COLDER than forecasted right now

(Look at the Low next Wednesday, 9°F!) :cold: :froze: :cold:



What hosting site do you use? My work blocks it and it seems to be the only one. I usually go to my ipad but I'm on a Zoom on it now. Stupid firewall.
Last edited by Texas Snow on Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2638 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:34 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:KWTV-News 9 has put out their 9-Day forecast at the 4:15 PM weather

He said the Temperatures are more likely to be COLDER than forecasted right now

(Look at the Low next Wednesday, 9°F!) :cold: :froze: :cold:



What hosting site do you use? My work blocks it and it seems to be the only one. I usually go to my ipad but I'm on a Zoom on it now. Stupid firewall.

18Zz looks similar temp wise through Friday so far


Screenshot (Power button & Sound button at the same time), process it to Gifyu (To prevent hotlinking) & then use the 'img' on S2K to show the picture.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2639 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:37 pm

Oh I know how to post pics, I was just curious who you use which looks like "Gifyu"

My work blocks that site unlike some of the others. I pull your posts up on a separate device. Yes I am a nerd wanting to soak in all the info I can.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2640 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:11 pm

GFS 18z sticks to a deep freeze. This is interesting. If the high in Canada stalls long enough, this becomes plausible.
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