Texas Winter 2020-2021

[wxman57]

I notice that the GFS & ECMWF 2m temps for TX late next week are EXTREMELY far apart. Euro only has temps a little below freezing in D-FW next Wed-Fri. GFS has an ice age over TX, with highs below freezing Sun-Tue (beyond 10 days). It even has highs below freezing in Houston. Let's hope it's wrong. Such temps could cause quite a bit of damage to water mains and to homes (water pipes in attics).

[WinterMax]

I notice that the GFS & ECMWF 2m temps for TX late next week are EXTREMELY far apart. Euro only has temps a little below freezing in D-FW next Wed-Fri. GFS has an ice age over TX, with highs below freezing Sun-Tue (beyond 10 days). It even has highs below freezing in Houston. Let's hope it's wrong. Such temps could cause quite a bit of damage to water mains and to homes (water pipes in attics).

Look forward to your opinions as this unfolds in the coming days. It maybe all gone by the next run though, lol.

I agree with you, and I would venture to say that kind of sustained cold would likely cause loss of life somewhere

[Iceresistance]

I notice that the GFS & ECMWF 2m temps for TX late next week are EXTREMELY far apart. Euro only has temps a little below freezing in D-FW next Wed-Fri. GFS has an ice age over TX, with highs below freezing Sun-Tue (beyond 10 days). It even has highs below freezing in Houston. Let's hope it's wrong. Such temps could cause quite a bit of damage to water mains and to homes (water pipes in attics).

Also the CMC when compared to the GFS & the Euro.

[Iceresistance]

The Most Realistic model for the 12z run is the ECMWF (Euro) model since all others call for 20 Below Zero in the Midwest while the Euro says down to 10 Below, which is more likely to happen.

But the Most Aggressive ones are the GFS & CMC

CMC for extreme Temperatures (Down to 40 Below Zero in the Dakotas)

GFS for Snow (Big winter storm down to the Gulf)

[wxman57]

Here's a GFS meteogram starting next Saturday. GFS has temps below freezing across Houston for 84 hrs. Scary thing is the Canadian 12Z run is 14 deg colder for Houston next Saturday morning (15F vs. 29F). I sure hope not, but it may be time to stock up on some pipe insulation that will be impossible to find if that's the forecast next week. The GFS has NOT been doing well beyond 3-5 days. Euro has been much better.

[Texas Snow]

Great points. I think its helpful to look for reasons why this extreme cold won't happen as much as the support it will. Wxman57 usually keeps us grounded but as a community its human nature to show examples of what we want to happen and ignoring what doesn't support our desired outcome

I want cold and snow but if I cant get snow, then I for one want a week of big time cold and then it can be spring. I just want to feel winter a bit before it ends.

Edit: Also like the summary of models Iceresistance has done a couple times like above. Its too early for me to model hop for every run this far out but I certainly appreciate the folks that do.

[Iceresistance]

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?

[Haris]

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?

Long way to go buddy, you'll drive yourself nuts if you look at every single run.

[Cpv17]

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?

Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.

[Iceresistance]

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?

Long way to go buddy, you'll drive yourself nuts if you look at every single run.

True, I'm a Snow & Cold Lover in the winter . . .

[Iceresistance]

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?

Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.

The Euro is usually only 12z & 0z, unless there is a site that also includes the 6z & 18z runs . . .

[HockeyTx82]

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?

Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.

Team Euro, I'm Team America

[Iceresistance]

Got up to 64°F today at my house, lots of cirrus clouds overhead.

[Brent]

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?

Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.

yeah I'm definitely wait and see at this point I mean a few days ago it was gonna be cold Sunday... its still almost a week out

[Iceresistance]

18z Models have started . . . Will they be similar to the INSANE 12z Model runs?

Till the Euro buys in, I’m not really buying into anything. The Euro is much more realistic.

yeah I'm definitely wait and see at this point I mean a few days ago it was gonna be cold Sunday... its still almost a week out

Right now, it's the Waiting Game.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 has put out their 9-Day forecast at the 4:15 PM weather

He said the Temperatures are more likely to be COLDER than forecasted right now

(Look at the Low next Wednesday, 9°F!)

[Texas Snow]

KWTV-News 9 has put out their 9-Day forecast at the 4:15 PM weather

He said the Temperatures are more likely to be COLDER than forecasted right now

(Look at the Low next Wednesday, 9°F!)

What hosting site do you use? My work blocks it and it seems to be the only one. I usually go to my ipad but I'm on a Zoom on it now. Stupid firewall.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 has put out their 9-Day forecast at the 4:15 PM weather

He said the Temperatures are more likely to be COLDER than forecasted right now

(Look at the Low next Wednesday, 9°F!)

What hosting site do you use? My work blocks it and it seems to be the only one. I usually go to my ipad but I'm on a Zoom on it now. Stupid firewall.

18Zz looks similar temp wise through Friday so far

Screenshot (Power button & Sound button at the same time), process it to Gifyu (To prevent hotlinking) & then use the 'img' on S2K to show the picture.

[Texas Snow]

Oh I know how to post pics, I was just curious who you use which looks like "Gifyu"

My work blocks that site unlike some of the others. I pull your posts up on a separate device. Yes I am a nerd wanting to soak in all the info I can.

[InfernoFlameCat]

GFS 18z sticks to a deep freeze. This is interesting. If the high in Canada stalls long enough, this becomes plausible.