Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Cerlin]

I nicely asked the kind weather gods to drop some snow on OKC/Norman only this weekend. They are happily obliging and have updated those changes in the weather models.




In all seriousness, I know this isn’t texas but it’s odd to see the globals giving into the idea of thermal wet bulb cooling due to higher precipitation rates. At least that seems to be what’s happening, anyone else have any takes on this or is this just model gunk? Euro is doing it too oddly enough.

[Iceresistance]

Good Grief! That reminds me closer to the December 30th, 2020 Suprise Snowstorm

I may get all of the winter fun! That was not there Yesterday!

[Iceresistance]

Just got the Forecast from KWTV-News 9 at 4:15 PM

EXTREMELY COLD Temperatures are expected next week, & it's only getting started . . .

[Brent]

FWD seems to be expecting freezing rain if there's any frozen precip yuck

[Iceresistance]

FWD seems to be expecting freezing rain if there's any frozen precip yuck

My Grandmother remembered back in the 1990s, there were Snowstorms/Ice Storms every week or so in Winter while living in Arlington.

[Iceresistance]

FWD seems to be expecting freezing rain if there's any frozen precip yuck

You spoke too soon.

[HockeyTx82]

FWD seems to be expecting freezing rain if there's any frozen precip yuck

You spoke too soon.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_44.png

That's a fake screen grab, where's the DFW Snow Hole?

[Brent]

FWD seems to be expecting freezing rain if there's any frozen precip yuck

You spoke too soon.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_44.png

That's a fake screen grab, where's the DFW Snow Hole?

Don't worry it's got 11 days to show up

Oh and that was just what the NWS expects in the next week

[Haris]

FWD seems to be expecting freezing rain if there's any frozen precip yuck

You spoke too soon.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_44.png

That’s a totally different system an eternity away.

[Iceresistance]

FWD seems to be expecting freezing rain if there's any frozen precip yuck

You spoke too soon.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_44.png

That’s a totally different system an eternity away.

May be, but I had to mention it . . .

[Ntxw]

CPC is bullish on the potent cold snap about to grip the US. When they pull out the deepest purple markers you know confidence is quite high, memorable cold snap. Probably a handful of times for large real estate, all of which typically produces the coldest air in a span of a few years.



This second map has been expanded westward, as typical with deep, dense cold air having an easy time down the lee of the Rockies.

[funster]

Interesting charts. They also put most of Texas in the "much below normal temperatures" region on the threats page - correlating with the dashed area in the second map you shared. "One change from the previous outlook is the expansion of the moderate risk area to include more of Texas and the western Gulf Coast as today’s reforecast tools have increased chances of more than 40 percent that minimum temperatures fall into the lowest 15th percentile. Given the predicted pattern with surface high pressure nosing southward across the Great Plains, a frost could extend to the lower Rio Grande Valley."
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php

CPC is bullish on the potent cold snap about to grip the US. When they pull out the deepest purple markers you know confidence is quite high, memorable cold snap. Probably a handful of times for large real estate, all of which typically produces the coldest air in a span of a few years.

https://i.imgur.com/D4VUfeq.gif

This second map has been expanded westward, as typical with deep, dense cold air having an easy time down the lee of the Rockies.

https://i.imgur.com/HOblgMI.png

[Ralph's Weather]

Its not often that SHV NWS has D7 frozen precip. They have rain, snow, freezing rain mix for Wed night and Thu with a high of 39 Thu.

[Ntxw]

Interesting charts. They also put most of Texas in the "much below normal temperatures" region on the threats page - correlating with the dashed area in the second map you shared. "One change from the previous outlook is the expansion of the moderate risk area to include more of Texas and the western Gulf Coast as today’s reforecast tools have increased chances of more than 40 percent that minimum temperatures fall into the lowest 15th percentile. Given the predicted pattern with surface high pressure nosing southward across the Great Plains, a frost could extend to the lower Rio Grande Valley."
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php

CPC is bullish on the potent cold snap about to grip the US. When they pull out the deepest purple markers you know confidence is quite high, memorable cold snap. Probably a handful of times for large real estate, all of which typically produces the coldest air in a span of a few years.

https://i.imgur.com/D4VUfeq.gif

This second map has been expanded westward, as typical with deep, dense cold air having an easy time down the lee of the Rockies.

https://i.imgur.com/HOblgMI.png

They also have an analog package section. The set of them favors a trend of more cold down the plains, which is where the models may continue to migrate though the whole eastern US is at risk with this big pool of cA air mass. But the idea of it sliding to east is slowly dwindling.

[Iceresistance]

Interesting charts. They also put most of Texas in the "much below normal temperatures" region on the threats page - correlating with the dashed area in the second map you shared. "One change from the previous outlook is the expansion of the moderate risk area to include more of Texas and the western Gulf Coast as today’s reforecast tools have increased chances of more than 40 percent that minimum temperatures fall into the lowest 15th percentile. Given the predicted pattern with surface high pressure nosing southward across the Great Plains, a frost could extend to the lower Rio Grande Valley."
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php

CPC is bullish on the potent cold snap about to grip the US. When they pull out the deepest purple markers you know confidence is quite high, memorable cold snap. Probably a handful of times for large real estate, all of which typically produces the coldest air in a span of a few years.

https://i.imgur.com/D4VUfeq.gif

This second map has been expanded westward, as typical with deep, dense cold air having an easy time down the lee of the Rockies.

https://i.imgur.com/HOblgMI.png

They also have an analog package section. The set of them favors a trend of more cold down the plains, which is where the models may continue to migrate (though the whole eastern US is at risk with this big pool of cA air mass.

I'm now under the High Risk for "Much Below Normal Temperatures" from the CPC

[Iceresistance]

Triple Trouble Winter Weather from 18z GFS



24-hour Snowfall (Something went wrong on Tropical Tidbits, but Pivotal Weather is fine)



Very cold for several days to come



GFS-Para has stopped working again . . .

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS at +180 hours, all but 2 members want winter precip for Texas & Oklahoma at that hour

(Ensemble Memeber #18 has some Ice in Far Southern Texas if you look closely, & #11 in Far Northeast Oklahoma)

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GEFS Ensemble model run is done




My Personal favorites are Members 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 18.

For DFW, it's 3 & maybe 4.

[Iceresistance]

Final Update for 2.4.2021 on WinterWX odds in Oklahoma & Texas
Part 1

Confidence for Snow on Saturday in

NE Oklahoma: 100% (I'm calling it)
Central Oklahoma: 70%

Impacts:

NE Oklahoma: High

Central Oklahoma: Moderate/Enchanced

My Discussion:

Almost all models are calling for snow in NE Oklahoma & Central Oklahoma. (Note: The Snow in Central Oklahoma highly depends where the rain mixes/changes with/to snow.)
The snow will arrive Saturday Evening & end early Sunday Morning moving from Northwest to Southeast.
Totals are not fully set yet, but generally 1-3 inches of snow & up to 4 in heavier pockets & in snow bands.
Impacts will be high in NE Oklahoma with snow-covered roads, very slick bridges, & travel is not recommended.
Slighty Lower in Central Oklahoma with slushy roads, slick bridges & travel is not advised.

[Iceresistance]

(Note: This is a big post)
Part 2 (and Final) of the final WinterWX odds on 2.4.2021

Confidence for the Polar Vortex on the 2nd week of February: 90%

Discussion:

All models are extremely consistant for the polar vortex to dive down into the Midwest by the 2nd week of February.
There was some models for the system to jog eastward towards the Great Lakes up to 18z, but now that possibility is now likely gone.
Temperatures will fall well below freezing & may stay that way for DAYS, including Texas & Oklahoma.
Wind Chills can fall down to -10°F in some areas depending on the wind.
Temperatures can fall down to near zero in Northern Oklahoma.
This polar vortex increases the chances for severe winter storms across the Southern Plains

Confidence for a Winter Storm in the Southern Plains Late Next Week: 60%

Impact levels:
(NOTE: All Severe impact zones are generally east of US-283)

North-Central Texas: Elevated
North Texas: Elevated/Enhanced/High
Along the Red River bordering Texas & Oklahoma: High/Moderate
South of I-40 & West of US-183 in Oklahoma: Moderate/Enhanced
North of I-40 & West of US-183 in Oklahoma: Enhanced/Elevated
Between I-35 & US-183 in Oklahoma: Elevated/Low
NW Oklahoma & NE Panhandle Texas: Low
SW Oklahoma: Minimal

My Discussion & Potental Totals:

Increasing confidence on Several Models for a winter storm in the Southern Plains Late Next week has allowed me to set up impact zones in Northern Texas & the Main portion of Oklahoma.
The Only model that has zero snow is the CMC model from 12z
Even though the Storm timeline is from Thrusday Night to Friday Evening.
Up to .1 inch of Ice is possible in North-Central Texas, up to 1/4 inch in Northern Texas
Considerable amount of Sleet is possible from Southern Oklahoma to Northern Texas, generally 2-3 inches with up to 4-5 inches of Sleet
Central Oklahoma & The Dallas Metroplex can have around .5 inch to 2 inches of sleet
Snow totals is 1-3 inches in Northern & NE Oklahoma, 3-5 inches on top of Sleet in Central Oklahoma (Parts of Eastern Oklahoma can get up to 6 inches depending on how fast the Sleet changes over to snow)
1-2 inches in NW Oklahoma
And a dusting of snow in Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas