Texas Winter 2020-2021

[txtwister78]

IDK...seems like a contradiction here. Lol.

[Iceresistance]

IDK...seems like a contradiction here. Lol.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-7hxLsT6eMVA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-3Mj5mdp5o70.png

I'm highly Curious about the 12z CMC Ensemble Snow Totals right now, can I see the photos please?

[Cpv17]

IDK...seems like a contradiction here. Lol.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-7hxLsT6eMVA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-3Mj5mdp5o70.png

Wtf!? Yeah, definitely

[Iceresistance]

IDK...seems like a contradiction here. Lol.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-7hxLsT6eMVA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-3Mj5mdp5o70.png

The Difference between CMC & CMCE is Ugly!

Wxman57 may have taken Control of CMC, but not the CMCE!

[3090]

From what I understand the GFS and the EURO are being so different because they are handling how the lobes of cold air influence the PV. That is the very basic gist of what I understand.

The GFS sees a lobe or lobes of artic air influencing the overall PV to be pulled into the central part of the US whereas the EURO does not see the lobes rotating around the mass of the PV and keeps the overall frigid air along the northern border aligned west to east.

[Iceresistance]

The 12z Euro is getting started, has it switched with the CMC to trend colder or did the CMC join forces with Wxman57 along with the Euro model itself?

[Cpv17]

12zGFS Ensembles Valentines day Temperature Anomaly....A few members are seeing what the Euro is seeing.

https://i.imgur.com/bSsDcbP.png

That’s not a good sign imo.

[TheProfessor]

IDK...seems like a contradiction here. Lol.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-7hxLsT6eMVA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-3Mj5mdp5o70.png

When it doubt go with the ensemble outside of the short-term forecast. However, it's important to note if the ensemble has been trending warmer or not. I myself haven't looked.

[Quixotic]

From what I understand the GFS and the EURO are being so different because they are handling how the lobes of cold air influence the PV. That is the very basic gist of what I understand.

The GFS sees a lobe or lobes of artic air influencing the overall PV to be pulled into the central part of the US whereas the EURO does not see the lobes rotating around the mass of the PV and keeps the overall frigid air along the northern border aligned west to east.

It’s the same story since 2015: an anomalously strong northern jet indicates a more zonal pattern rather than a blocky meridional pattern. Models are having a hard time working this out as it seems we have both the blocking and strong prevailing flow trapping the air. Weird.

If this ends up in a fail for us, I will stick to my mantra that of late, SSWs don’t really mean a whole lot for us and are overhyped. PVs in Canada don’t benefit us if they are wound up that tight.

[dhweather]

Not much moisture to work with

[txtwister78]

IDK...seems like a contradiction here. Lol.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-7hxLsT6eMVA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613228400-3Mj5mdp5o70.png

When it doubt go with the ensemble outside of the short-term forecast. However, it's important to note if the ensemble has been trending warmer or not. I myself haven't looked.

It was about the same overall from the 0z. I would say maybe a few degrees colder this run. Initial cold front made a little more progress south than what the 0z showed.

[SnowintheFalls]

Even Steve McCauley's own Stat Method is struggling with this setup.

"The leading edge of Arctic Air is settling in across the northern third of the United States this afternoon and will make gradual progress to the south. However, the CORE of the Arctic Air is still in Canada over a thousand miles away and is still not expected here in north Texas for several days.

It will be turning much cooler during the day Tuesday as a very shallow layer of cold air filters in from the north, but nothing drastic is expected. Unfortunately, there is still too much chaos in the atmosphere to allow a precise prediction in terms of when the COLDEST of the air will arrive and whether there will be any wintry precipitation with it when it finally gets here.

Many of you who have been looking at the various computer models over the last several days have probably noticed some wild FLIP FLOPS in their predictions lately. Even the "beloved" European Model is having GREAT DIFFICULTY trying to predict when this bitterly cold air will arrive.

The Canadian Model has been most aggressive with the Arctic Air in our area, forecasting near record lows for several days in a row beginning on Friday. But it has backed off and has done a complete 180! For example, yesterday, it was going for a HIGH TEMPERATURE of 15°F next Sunday. Now it is going for 63°F!

Numerical models are effectively USELESS beyond just a few days into the future due to the extremely HIGH CHAOS levels in the atmosphere right now. Not even the Stat Method can make any sense of what is happening.

Since chaos cannot be accurately expressed by mathematics, reliably accurate forecasts cannot be made for more than just a few days in advance. But there is cause for optimism...once the core of the Arctic Air gets into the US weather observation network, we should have a better understanding of what to expect locally."

[fendie]

12Z CMC Ensemble 6-hour precip type valid Thursday
at 6 am Central:



12Z GFS Ensemble 6-hour precip type valid Thursday at 6 am Central:

[Iceresistance]

12Z CMC Ensemble 6-hour precip type valid Thursday
at 6 am Central:

https://i.imgur.com/VY4NeUH.png

12Z GFS Ensemble 6-hour precip type valid Thursday at 6 am Central:

https://i.imgur.com/dz3XDXV.png

Can you do all of the Snow Totals from the CMC Ensemble?

[fendie]

12Z CMC Ensemble Individual Member Snowfall totals:



12Z GFS Ensemble Individual Member Snowfall totals:



Note these graphics go out to 15+ days so they may include more than one storm.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro is coming in slightly colder for next weekend. Slowly the beginning of a cave towards the GFS?

[Iceresistance]

12Z CMC Ensemble Individual Member Snowfall totals:

https://i.imgur.com/DTF1ZfH.png[

12Z GFS Ensemble Individual Member Snowfall totals:

https://i.imgur.com/HgbrF6K.png

Note these graphics go out to 15+ days so they may include more than one storm.

CMCE Personal Favorites are only Members 3, 17, & 19.
(Members 7, 9 & 20 got close for Snow, but mostly Sleet & Ice)

GEFS Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 26, 27, 28 & 30.
(Members 15, 19, 22, 25 & 29 got close for snow, but mostly Sleet & Ice)

[SnowintheFalls]

12z Euro is coming in slightly colder for next weekend. Slowly the beginning of a cave towards the GFS?

Let's hope so because this has been one intense rollercoaster ride!

[bubba hotep]

Welp, the model bust(s) are going to be epic this week lol

[harp]

And the Euro says...???