Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

And the Euro says...???

Snow in NW Oklahoma at the End of the Run.

EDIT: But trending colder.

[Frank P]

When comparing with the 0z run the 12z EURO drives the colder air farther south..
0z run is 53 deg on Ms coast at 240 hours, 12z is colder at 41 degrees on the MS coast at the end of the run... lower by 12 degrees for my area...

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS Animation for Storm #2, #3, & System #4.



24-hour Kuchera Ratio snowfall

[txtwister78]

The Euro ENS and its Control are definitely more bullish on the cold.

[Iceresistance]

The Euro ENS and its Control are definitely more bullish on the cold.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612699200/1613239200-66oYagJxl4g.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612699200/1613239200-sG6HceoVbkY.png

It does looks like that the Euro traded with the CMC to trend colder . . .

EDIT: Speaking of Euro ENS, how are the Euro Ensembles doing in terms of total snowfall & mean snowfall?

[SnowintheFalls]

So what in particular is it about this setup that is wreaking so much havoc in the models? I know the models have been known to be inconsistent but swings this drastic seem beyond crazy to me.

[Iceresistance]

CPC is calling for a High risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures in the Midwest, Central & Southern Plains. (And into the Gulf of Mexico!)

[HockeyTx82]

Anyone know what the Fox 4 WAPP uses for the forecasts?

It's trending up and pushing off. The other day us below freezing for a few days in a row.

Is this the long range, lose it in the short, then hammer it home 2 days out?

I'm starting to think they hype is just that unfortunately

[Cpv17]

The Euro ENS and its Control are definitely more bullish on the cold.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612699200/1613239200-66oYagJxl4g.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612699200/1613239200-sG6HceoVbkY.png

I feel kinda dumb for asking but what’s the control run? That’s not the operational?

[Ralph's Weather]

So what in particular is it about this setup that is wreaking so much havoc in the models? I know the models have been known to be inconsistent but swings this drastic seem beyond crazy to me.

I think a lot of it is models struggle with highly anomalous patterns.

[Iceresistance]

The Euro ENS and its Control are definitely more bullish on the cold.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612699200/1613239200-66oYagJxl4g.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612699200/1613239200-sG6HceoVbkY.png

I feel kinda dumb for asking but what’s the control run? That’s not the operational?

The ECMWF Control run is basically the ECMWF (Euro) model.

[Iceresistance]

Potentally severe Temperature bust.

Supposed to be 43°F today, it's 34°F right now.

[vbhoutex]

So what in particular is it about this setup that is wreaking so much havoc in the models? I know the models have been known to be inconsistent but swings this drastic seem beyond crazy to me.

I think a lot of it is models struggle with highly anomalous patterns.

I agree and this pattern is somewhat anomalous! Also I don't think I have ever seen the models get a good grip, at least in the Southern plains, on severe cold(very dense air)and how it "flows".

[wxman57]

Canadian has joined the GFS in saying "what front?" Canadian ensembles are calling the operational Canadian run an idiot. I now have full control of the operational Canadian. Working on the other models now. GFS operational said "no way, here it comes!". GFS ensembles say "what front?" GFS ensembles are 15-20F warmer than operational. Less ice on Canadian, but GFS freezing rain shifted to the coast.

I added the Canadian ensembles (blue dashed line):


Considerably less freezing rain with the Canadian:


Freezing rain shifted south to the coast with the 12Z GFS:

[Yukon Cornelius]

Potentally severe Temperature bust.

Supposed to be 43°F today, it's 34°F right now.

We’ve busted the opposite way here right along the river. Last night was suppose to be a low in the mid 20s, it got down to 34. Today was suppose to stay cloudy and cool, it’s sunny and getting warm. I haven’t checked temps this afternoon compared to the forecast.

[Iceresistance]

Potentally severe Temperature bust.

Supposed to be 43°F today, it's 34°F right now.

We’ve busted the opposite way here right along the river. Last night was suppose to be a low in the mid 20s, it got down to 34. Today was suppose to stay cloudy and cool, it’s sunny and getting warm. I haven’t checked temps this afternoon compared to the forecast.

It's 52°F in Petrolia, TX right now (No, I've looked up the weather there) & 51°F in Wichita Falls, TX.

[Iceresistance]

Canadian has joined the GFS in saying "what front?" Canadian ensembles are calling the operational Canadian run an idiot. I now have full control of the operational Canadian. Working on the other models now. GFS operational said "no way, here it comes!". GFS ensembles say "what front?" GFS ensembles are 15-20F warmer than operational. Less ice on Canadian, but GFS freezing rain shifted to the coast.

I added the Canadian ensembles (blue dashed line):
http://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZFeb7.JPG

Considerably less freezing rain with the Canadian:
http://wxman57.com/images/CanadianZR12ZFeb7.JPG

Freezing rain shifted south to the coast with the 12Z GFS:
http://wxman57.com/images/GFSZR12ZFeb7.JPG

Keep in mind that the Euro trended colder across the Southern Plains, but not in Houston. The SE Ridge is Key for any chances for winter weather across the Southern Plains.

[txtwister78]

Worth noting that some of the NCEP HIRES models bring the front in much faster than globals. Worth watching over the next day for trends.

[Texas Snow]

Afternoon AFD from NWS FWD

LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday night onward/

The main headline of this week`s forecast is the southward expansion
of the arctic air mid-to-late week, and possibly into the
following weekend. Overall model trends have trended slightly
slower on the progression of the cold airmass. The latest NAM
slows down the first cold front (Monday night/Tuesday) somewhere
along Central TX and Brazos Valley region, which will impact our
afternoon temperatures on Tuesday. If the front stalls according
to this scenario, we will be looking at temps ranging from the low
40s along the Red River, upper 40s to low 50s across North TX,
and upper 50s to near 70s degrees across Central TX. In addition
to the temperature spread, some of the medium-range models show
the potential for light drizzle across portions of North TX on
Tuesday and again on Wednesday. For now, we opted to keep a dry
forecast due to the lack of confidence, but we will monitor the
trends and will adjust the forecast as needed.

A ridge of cold air is expected to move over the southern plains
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ensemble clusters are showing better
agreement for the trough to remain over central/western Canada
during the mid week period, which will support the southward push
of the arctic air into the region. How far south will the cold
get? That`s still in question. At this moment, we will continue
to advertise the cold temps late week and into the weekend due to
the nature of the upper pattern. We can`t rule out the potential
for some light freezing drizzle or wintry mix late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, but most of the precipitation is expected
to remain as cold rain. Therefore, we don`t anticipate significant
impacts with this current scenario. It also appears that there
will be enough instability for a few isolated thunderstorms to
develop along the surface boundary (especially across Central TX)
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Continue to monitor
the updates as the forecast details are refined.

If the advertised cold temperatures do arrive late week, we might be
looking at the coldest morning temperatures of the season. Wind
chill values are forecast to drop into the teens across most of
North and Central TX Friday and Saturday morning.

Sanchez

[wxman57]

The ECMWF Control run is basically the ECMWF (Euro) model.

That means that the output of the ensembles is not dependent on the resolution of the model.