Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/27r985J/MEME.png [/url]

He definitely flopped tonight. Not the game I thought it would be.

Sorry to derail.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro will flip flop with the GFS lol now the GFS will be the torch and the Euro the freezer

That would be classic, the GFS has a long history of having the right idea first but then losing it while the Euro closes hard for the victory. Then everyone claims the Euro King, even though it just started doing what the GFS was doing when the GFS stopped doing it lol

[Haris]

ICON getting colder every run

[Texas Snow]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/27r985J/MEME.png [/url]

Mohomes late pick just cost me $250. Mahomes will be the Euro and GFS will win. Bring on the cold!

[Ralph's Weather]

Im grasping for straws here but the 18zGFS Ensemble Mean 500mb has the PV a bit more west just north of Minnesota instead of the operational 18zGFS which has it North of North Dakota. I did notice that the PV on the GFS Ensembles has become more elongated with each passing model run meaning that the trend is favoring the ECMWF right now.

18zGFS 500mb Friday Morning
https://i.imgur.com/RkYCBqJ.png

18zGFS Ensemble Means 500mb Friday Morning
https://i.imgur.com/DItx7Ox.png

Based on climo, it would be unusual to see a TPV drift westward like some of the model runs are showing. Once they move towards the mid lats they typically move SE towards the Great Lakes. Now to see if models trend back towards climo or if we get this unusual westward consolidation/ drift before heading back eastward?

Agreed, the Euro old solution /new GFS solution of the TPV stretching out west along the Canadian border is a bizarre look. I don't buy it. I will expect a GL TPV with a back building surface high targeting the Southern Plains until I see the westard retrogression of the TPV happening in realtime.

[bubba hotep]

ICON getting colder every run

ICON would be a nasty ice storm for Texas.

[txtwister78]

Lock that in.

[Rgv20]

One thing you learn when attempting to forecast weather is despite all the models (resources that they offer to weather enthusiasts/the general public/mets), mother nature still has her own plan at times and always throws a few curve balls. If the cold comes (and I believe it will) does it really matter in the end if it came a few days later? I don't envy those who have to do this on TV because I'm not at all saying forecast aren't important to the general public (planning etc), but if you study the weather and learn to appreciate all the dynamics that have to come into play to get a particular outcome to occur at a particular point in time (hitting vs busting), then it makes the models less important than the actual drivers of what's behind them.

Not a rant directed at anyone. Just trying to give a different perspective....even if you don't get the outcome you want in the end. It makes the ride along the way fun though I think.

Couldn't have said it better. That's the whole purpose of this board, is to discuss and continue the conversation. Any one can pull up a model or map and stare at it to no avail. That's what our community is for to share insight and try to make sense of it all. Without it, we don't have a board!

Perhaps maybe this will turn out to be the case where things sort of get lost in the medium range and then comes roaring back? It's still going to get cold for some if not many, lets start with some good 0z trends.

Lets start the trend with the 0zICON

[txtwister78]

That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.

[EnnisTx]

That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1612742400/1613314800-Ygt2PGjWL7I.png

That would include a lot of insurance claims!

[Ralph's Weather]

That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1612742400/1613314800-Ygt2PGjWL7I.png

ICON tying the all time state record for low temp with -23 near Dalhart.

[Ntxw]

That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1612742400/1613314800-Ygt2PGjWL7I.png

That's the single coldest weather model map I've ever seen for the region. Those are 1899 type temperatures.

[orangeblood]

That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1612742400/1613314800-Ygt2PGjWL7I.png

That's the single coldest weather model map I've ever seen for the region. Those are 1899 type temperatures.

No doubt about it! It engulfs the entire country in a devastating outbreak...do not want anything remotely close to this! The one aspect about the ICON that stands over over past several runs, compared to other globals, it’s been extremely consistent...

[Texas Snow]

The GFS just said, “I’m your huckleberry”

[South Texas Storms]

Some good changes in the 0z model guidance so far if you want to see cold weather in Texas. Several chances for wintry precipitation as well showing up in the GFS and ICON so far.

[Haris]

CMC is much colder.!

[South Texas Storms]

CMC is much colder.!

Yep and several chances of frozen precipitation as well. I think the Euro will likely trend colder tonight.

[Texas Snow]

CMC is much colder.!

Noon Sunday in Dallas 17 vs 60 on prior run. OMG this is hilarious.

[Cpv17]

CMC is much colder.!

Noon Sunday in Dallas 17 vs 60 on prior run. OMG this is hilarious.

Lol yeah this is comical already at this point. I’m not believing anything anymore with these models till there’s unanimous model support within 72 hours!!

[Brent]

CMC is much colder.!

Noon Sunday in Dallas 17 vs 60 on prior run. OMG this is hilarious.

Absolute insanity lol

Still talking about day 6 too that has been another trend lol