He definitely flopped tonight. Not the game I thought it would be.
Sorry to derail.
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Cpv17 wrote:The Euro will flip flop with the GFS lol now the GFS will be the torch and the Euro the freezer
bubba hotep wrote:Rgv20 wrote:Im grasping for straws here but the 18zGFS Ensemble Mean 500mb has the PV a bit more west just north of Minnesota instead of the operational 18zGFS which has it North of North Dakota. I did notice that the PV on the GFS Ensembles has become more elongated with each passing model run meaning that the trend is favoring the ECMWF right now.
18zGFS 500mb Friday Morning
https://i.imgur.com/RkYCBqJ.png
18zGFS Ensemble Means 500mb Friday Morning
https://i.imgur.com/DItx7Ox.png
Based on climo, it would be unusual to see a TPV drift westward like some of the model runs are showing. Once they move towards the mid lats they typically move SE towards the Great Lakes. Now to see if models trend back towards climo or if we get this unusual westward consolidation/ drift before heading back eastward?
Haris wrote:ICON getting colder every run
Ntxw wrote:txtwister78 wrote:One thing you learn when attempting to forecast weather is despite all the models (resources that they offer to weather enthusiasts/the general public/mets), mother nature still has her own plan at times and always throws a few curve balls. If the cold comes (and I believe it will) does it really matter in the end if it came a few days later? I don't envy those who have to do this on TV because I'm not at all saying forecast aren't important to the general public (planning etc), but if you study the weather and learn to appreciate all the dynamics that have to come into play to get a particular outcome to occur at a particular point in time (hitting vs busting), then it makes the models less important than the actual drivers of what's behind them.
Not a rant directed at anyone. Just trying to give a different perspective....even if you don't get the outcome you want in the end. It makes the ride along the way fun though I think.
Couldn't have said it better. That's the whole purpose of this board, is to discuss and continue the conversation. Any one can pull up a model or map and stare at it to no avail. That's what our community is for to share insight and try to make sense of it all. Without it, we don't have a board!
Perhaps maybe this will turn out to be the case where things sort of get lost in the medium range and then comes roaring back? It's still going to get cold for some if not many, lets start with some good 0z trends.
txtwister78 wrote:That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1612742400/1613314800-Ygt2PGjWL7I.png
txtwister78 wrote:That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1612742400/1613314800-Ygt2PGjWL7I.png
txtwister78 wrote:That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1612742400/1613314800-Ygt2PGjWL7I.png
Ntxw wrote:txtwister78 wrote:That's scary cold and in all seriousness we probably shouldn't be rooting on.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1612742400/1613314800-Ygt2PGjWL7I.png
That's the single coldest weather model map I've ever seen for the region. Those are 1899 type temperatures.
Haris wrote:CMC is much colder.!
Haris wrote:CMC is much colder.!
Texas Snow wrote:Haris wrote:CMC is much colder.!
Noon Sunday in Dallas 17 vs 60 on prior run. OMG this is hilarious.
Texas Snow wrote:Haris wrote:CMC is much colder.!
Noon Sunday in Dallas 17 vs 60 on prior run. OMG this is hilarious.
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