Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4741 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:49 am

CMC run coming in with more precip (than 0Z) and further south (similar to ICON)

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4742 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:50 am

At least the snow hole on the GEFS is around Denver. Lol. Yay, not DFW. On a more serious note, I made the mistake of watching the accident video. Don't do it. Absolutely terrifying for any in their cars with the semis.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4743 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:52 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Houston keeps going from the possibility of 2-5" of snow and 1/8" of ice to rainy mess. We're so on the border of this system, it's going to be a nerve-racking couple of days.

Where's Wxman! :lol:


No, if you look at the temps and surface output, Greater Houston looks icy as hell. Freezing rain and sleet. Only places that might see rain would be over to Beaumont or the immediate beaches


Even the areas that receive rain may have problems later, as the temperature will be around freezing. The rain may freeze after it reaches the surface.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4744 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:54 am

Blend the 12z Canadian & GFS-p and call it lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4745 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:56 am

12z GFS has Storm #1 is almost nonexistant at this rate, Storm #2 looks potent & so is Storm #3! :eek:

Image

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4746 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:57 am

bubba hotep wrote:Blend the 12z Canadian & GFS-p and call it lol

That would be wonderful. It is going to be a long three days until the snow starts falling sometime on Sunday!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4747 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:58 am

bubba hotep wrote:Blend the 12z Canadian & GFS-p and call it lol


GFS-P is on crack putting down 30" of snow in the Falls.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4748 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:58 am

I am am concerned about temps this afternoon here along I-20 in E TX. The Central Texas precip shield will graze us after lunch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4749 Postby ztshanklin » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:59 am

Forgive my ignorance.

What causes ratio to be higher or lower, ie 10-1 vs 15-1 vs 20-1
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4750 Postby Quixotic » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:00 pm

Cerlin wrote:I keep thinking the snow here is gonna stop but it’s actually gotten stronger! We’ve already gotten a dusting and if this continued for another couple of hours it could easily reach half an inch. Models didn’t even mention this as a possibility, and the radars/weather apps still aren’t convinced it’s actually snowing.

Where you at in Frisco? I have nada coming down. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4751 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:01 pm

Quixotic wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I keep thinking the snow here is gonna stop but it’s actually gotten stronger! We’ve already gotten a dusting and if this continued for another couple of hours it could easily reach half an inch. Models didn’t even mention this as a possibility, and the radars/weather apps still aren’t convinced it’s actually snowing.

Where you at in Frisco? I have nada coming down. :(


Poster is currently in Norman, Oklahoma. Travels between the two cities.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4752 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:03 pm

Ukmet looks good further south (consider half to 2/3rds of this it is calculating between now and Sat which means the icing event included).
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4753 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:04 pm

East Texas gets CRUSHED on the CMC. DFW still sees 12-18", but one issue that occurs is that it's a bit dry where snow is created, but the whole column below that isn't so it's not likely to be virga. Snow ratios are comfortable 12-15 to 1.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4754 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:05 pm

ztshanklin wrote:Forgive my ignorance.

What causes ratio to be higher or lower, ie 10-1 vs 15-1 vs 20-1


I always think of it this way. If it is warmer, with temps closer to freezing or even hovering just above at the surface, the snow is usually big wet flakes. They are heavy and they just weigh down each other as they pile up so they tend to kind of condense and pack in on themselves. When it snows with temps well into the 20s and colder, the snow is extremely frozen and much lighter. So the flakes tend to sit on top of each other more and really can pile up higher. Does that make any sense at all?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4755 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:06 pm

ztshanklin wrote:Forgive my ignorance.

What causes ratio to be higher or lower, ie 10-1 vs 15-1 vs 20-1

Many things but a key is having an area of the atmosphere with good lift and moisture and be around -15C or 5F, this is where the best snowflakes form. If there is a thick layer that meet those conditions and no substantial warm nose then heavy snow can fall. Around here usually our moisture is in air that is warmer so non-ideally shaped snowflakes form. Too cold temps can also limit ratios as snow takes on geometries that are not high ratio.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4756 Postby Haris » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:07 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4757 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:09 pm

FWIW Ukmet has DFW going below 0 Tuesday morning. Again consider this is generally a conservative model.

In all the talk of snow we've side tracked the brutal cold still in play. Or maybe no one questions that anymore and it's just a given.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4758 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:10 pm

Bexar County (San Antonio) added to winter weather advisory
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4759 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:10 pm



Why is the radar picking up snow when the freezing layer is so shallow?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4760 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:12 pm

Thank you to the admin who unlocked my account. I changed my email address and password and got kicked out last night. I was so pissed, haha. Back to posting now.

That was the worst 12 hours of my life :eek:
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