
Texas Winter 2020-2021
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
CMC run coming in with more precip (than 0Z) and further south (similar to ICON)


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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
At least the snow hole on the GEFS is around Denver. Lol. Yay, not DFW. On a more serious note, I made the mistake of watching the accident video. Don't do it. Absolutely terrifying for any in their cars with the semis.
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- captainbarbossa19
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Beaumont, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:SoupBone wrote:Houston keeps going from the possibility of 2-5" of snow and 1/8" of ice to rainy mess. We're so on the border of this system, it's going to be a nerve-racking couple of days.
Where's Wxman!
No, if you look at the temps and surface output, Greater Houston looks icy as hell. Freezing rain and sleet. Only places that might see rain would be over to Beaumont or the immediate beaches
Even the areas that receive rain may have problems later, as the temperature will be around freezing. The rain may freeze after it reaches the surface.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Blend the 12z Canadian & GFS-p and call it lol
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
12z GFS has Storm #1 is almost nonexistant at this rate, Storm #2 looks potent & so is Storm #3!

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
bubba hotep wrote:Blend the 12z Canadian & GFS-p and call it lol
That would be wonderful. It is going to be a long three days until the snow starts falling sometime on Sunday!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
bubba hotep wrote:Blend the 12z Canadian & GFS-p and call it lol
GFS-P is on crack putting down 30" of snow in the Falls.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
I am am concerned about temps this afternoon here along I-20 in E TX. The Central Texas precip shield will graze us after lunch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Forgive my ignorance.
What causes ratio to be higher or lower, ie 10-1 vs 15-1 vs 20-1
What causes ratio to be higher or lower, ie 10-1 vs 15-1 vs 20-1
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Cerlin wrote:I keep thinking the snow here is gonna stop but it’s actually gotten stronger! We’ve already gotten a dusting and if this continued for another couple of hours it could easily reach half an inch. Models didn’t even mention this as a possibility, and the radars/weather apps still aren’t convinced it’s actually snowing.
Where you at in Frisco? I have nada coming down.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Quixotic wrote:Cerlin wrote:I keep thinking the snow here is gonna stop but it’s actually gotten stronger! We’ve already gotten a dusting and if this continued for another couple of hours it could easily reach half an inch. Models didn’t even mention this as a possibility, and the radars/weather apps still aren’t convinced it’s actually snowing.
Where you at in Frisco? I have nada coming down.
Poster is currently in Norman, Oklahoma. Travels between the two cities.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Ukmet looks good further south (consider half to 2/3rds of this it is calculating between now and Sat which means the icing event included).
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
East Texas gets CRUSHED on the CMC. DFW still sees 12-18", but one issue that occurs is that it's a bit dry where snow is created, but the whole column below that isn't so it's not likely to be virga. Snow ratios are comfortable 12-15 to 1.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
ztshanklin wrote:Forgive my ignorance.
What causes ratio to be higher or lower, ie 10-1 vs 15-1 vs 20-1
I always think of it this way. If it is warmer, with temps closer to freezing or even hovering just above at the surface, the snow is usually big wet flakes. They are heavy and they just weigh down each other as they pile up so they tend to kind of condense and pack in on themselves. When it snows with temps well into the 20s and colder, the snow is extremely frozen and much lighter. So the flakes tend to sit on top of each other more and really can pile up higher. Does that make any sense at all?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
ztshanklin wrote:Forgive my ignorance.
What causes ratio to be higher or lower, ie 10-1 vs 15-1 vs 20-1
Many things but a key is having an area of the atmosphere with good lift and moisture and be around -15C or 5F, this is where the best snowflakes form. If there is a thick layer that meet those conditions and no substantial warm nose then heavy snow can fall. Around here usually our moisture is in air that is warmer so non-ideally shaped snowflakes form. Too cold temps can also limit ratios as snow takes on geometries that are not high ratio.
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- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
FWIW Ukmet has DFW going below 0 Tuesday morning. Again consider this is generally a conservative model.
In all the talk of snow we've side tracked the brutal cold still in play. Or maybe no one questions that anymore and it's just a given.
In all the talk of snow we've side tracked the brutal cold still in play. Or maybe no one questions that anymore and it's just a given.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Why is the radar picking up snow when the freezing layer is so shallow?
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Any post should not be taken as a forecast. I am just an amateur living the dream.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Thank you to the admin who unlocked my account. I changed my email address and password and got kicked out last night. I was so pissed, haha. Back to posting now.
That was the worst 12 hours of my life
That was the worst 12 hours of my life

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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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