Texas Winter 2020-2021

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Don’t live in a concrete hell hole with idiot inner city politicians and you’ll get more snow...

My 2 cents

[bubba hotep]

00z 3k NAM trending towards a shutout for DFW, would bust the updated NWS graphic on tbe low side.

[jasons2k]

ALB issued a severe thunderstorm warning for hail and 60mph winds. This is with snow as the precip type. System seems more dynamic than expected.

Do you mean ABX?

Albuquerque, NM

NWS ABX = Albuquerque, NM
NWS ALB = Albany, NY

I checked the radar out of ABX and assumed that's what you meant

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It is colder in Bay City, Palacios, and Port Lavaca -- even Corpus and points south - than it is up here at my place. Crazy.

I’ve seen this a few times with even a routine cold spell. Gulf influence a little stronger up there and the air takes the path of leases resistance?

Ouachita shadow and the way dense cold air slides down the plains of Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

00z 3k NAM trending towards a shutout for DFW, would bust the updated NWS graphic on tbe low side.

I'm sorry. What?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Do you mean ABX?

Albuquerque, NM

NWS ABX = Albuquerque, NM
NWS ALB = Albany, NY

I checked the radar out of ABX and assumed that's what you meant

My younger brother goes to school and Flagstaff and heard numerous thunder claps with snow today

[cheezyWXguy]

00z 3k NAM trending towards a shutout for DFW, would bust the updated NWS graphic on tbe low side.

I don’t buy it, HRRR is matching radar trends more accurately and shows at least 0.1” qpf more. Same with the icon. With ratios near 1:15 we should get into the 4-6”. The nam is underselling the early bands

[Texas Snow]

00z 3k NAM trending towards a shutout for DFW, would bust the updated NWS graphic on tbe low side.

That run would be a disaster

Edit: looks worse on TT. Kuchara on others not “disaster”

[Ntxw]

00z 3k NAM trending towards a shutout for DFW, would bust the updated NWS graphic on tbe low side.

I don’t buy it, HRRR is matching radar trends more accurately and shows at least 0.1” qpf more. Same with the icon. With ratios near 1:15 we should get into the 4-6”. The nam is underselling the early bands

Looks familiar..FW? 2-4" range on it too, I wonder if this is what they pulled it from.

[Texas Snow]

Does the NWS get model data before public or does it all come in at same time?

[rwfromkansas]

If I have to go to school Tuesday....

[Lagreeneyes03]

Steve McCauley’s map is forthcoming but it is going for DFW with TWO to six inches.

Still calling for bigger storm tue/wed with DFW mostly snow but dangerously close to a “crippling ice storm”

If we get only 2 inches I swear I quit-WHY would that be a forecast?

[Brent]

00z 3k NAM trending towards a shutout for DFW, would bust the updated NWS graphic on tbe low side.

no comment needed

[Texas Snowman]

00z 3k NAM trending towards a shutout for DFW, would bust the updated NWS graphic on tbe low side.

no comment needed

Because when it comes to snow, one way or the other, NAM means Nev-A-Mind, right?

[HockeyTx82]

And here we go.......

Folks, it's been an honor and a privilege this past week.

I've learned so much, looking forward to the Spring thread.

[jasons2k]

Temp steady here for the last two hours.

[TheProfessor]

Does the NWS get model data before public or does it all come in at same time?

This may sound weird, but in some cases it's slower, there were times I'd go on Tropical Tidbits in the office because the 12z GFS hadn't finished loading in AWIPS. They also almost never use brand new model data on their forecast updates, it's almost always from the last full cycle, which would be 18z for the models that run that. The exception would be the hourly models like the HRRR and RAP

[rwfromkansas]

Honestly I think they are relying too heavily on the NAM. But, we will know tomorrow. It’s starting. At least we will get snow that sticks unlike that day of light snow earlier this year that did nothing but look pretty falling.

[Ntxw]

Light radar returns are showing up to the southwest out towards Killeen moving N/NE. This would be the area that blossoms to the first batch of qpf in a couple of hours.

[Texas Snow]

Does the NWS get model data before public or does it all come in at same time?

This may sound weird, but in some cases it's slower, there were times I'd go on Tropical Tidbits in the office because the 12z GFS hadn't finished loading in AWIPS. They also almost never use brand new model data on their forecast updates, it's almost always from the last full cycle, which would be 18z for the models that run that. The exception would be the hourly models like the HRRR and RAP

Wow interesting, I have always figured somehow they got it an hour early or something. Thanks for clarifying.