Texas Winter 2020-2021

[gpsnowman]

Forecast low is 2 on Tuesday. Who thinks we bust low and get a negative for the first time since 1989? I think we do It only if the clouds hold off until after sunrise.

[JDawg512]

Chiming in again, you know I just realized these light snow flurries we are seeing here are actually coming off of Lake Travis. Can see light radar returns from Lake Travis across central and south Austin. Lake effect snow! Pretty amazing to see and never thought I'd see anything like that.

[Ntxw]

Chiming in again, you know I just realized these light snow flurries we are seeing here are actually coming off of Lake Travis. Can see light radar returns from Lake Travis across central and south Austin. Lake effect snow! Pretty amazing to see and never thought I'd see anything like that.

It's happened quite a lot the past day or so. Some folks in SE Texas were reporting it too and on visible you can see thin band of clouds off Lake Sam Rayburn and Livingston. It happened with the big Lakes north of DFW. It takes a significant temperature difference (something like 13C or greater is ideal) between air temp vs water temp in addition to some orographic help for lift.

[Iceresistance]

Chiming in again, you know I just realized these light snow flurries we are seeing here are actually coming off of Lake Travis. Can see light radar returns from Lake Travis across central and south Austin. Lake effect snow! Pretty amazing to see and never thought I'd see anything like that.

It's happened quite a lot the past day or so. Some folks in SE Texas were reporting it too and on visible you can see thin band of clouds off Lake Sam Rayburn and Livingston. It happened with the big Lakes north of DFW. It takes a significant temperature difference (something like 13C or greater is ideal) between air temp vs water temp in addition to some orographic help for lift.

When you first think of Lake-Effect Snow, it's in the Great Lakes

But the Lakes of Oklahoma & Texas has stolen the spotlight this time!

[fendie]

Freezing rain totals being projected for Wednesday storm.

18Z GFS:


18Z NAM (3km):


12Z Euro:


12Z Canadian:


18Z RGEM:

[Iceresistance]

Freezing rain totals being projected for Wednesday storm.

18Z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/Pgfrqhv.png

18Z NAM (3km):
https://i.imgur.com/e1iCYgr.png

12Z Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/kxyQOXJ.png

12Z Canadian:
https://i.imgur.com/XpiTdG2.png

18Z RGEM:
https://i.imgur.com/oGPOWM5.png

ANY Texas Resident that is under the Winter Storm Warning for Ice will chose the GFS over all other models for this storm . . .

[rwfromkansas]

Some of the ice totals. Ugh. That will make problems worse.

[bubba hotep]

15z SREF at DFW is wetter than any run for the last system and nice cluster over 0.75 qpf. It is warmer so sees more ice but it has consistently been too warm with this air mass.

[Ntxw]

So I thought maybe FW would update the *actual* snow amounts of DFW but I see nothing has changed. I hope there is an explanation.



Again 4" was at midnight before the new batch that came through and DFW was light to moderate snow/half mile vis for a few hours and you tell me nothing/zero was gained? I don't buy it. I hate to keep rehashing this but it's blatantly very obvious.

[BigD938]

These systems seem to get backed up to the west most time, think the system tomorrow will do the same? Temps have been colder too, so more snow than ice? Would put dfw back in the crosshairs again

[Haris]

WOW WOW WOW !!! biggest snowstorm since 1949

[rwfromkansas]

We haven’t lost power once so opening our home for a family for the night since they have had no power for over 8 hours. ERCOT will have to testify in hearings probably.

[bohai]

Solar and Wind Turbines dont work well in these temps. Plus most NG fired power plants have planned shutdowns in the winter because most NG is diverted to provide heating for homes and businesses. Thus the plants are not geared up to producing excess power in the winter months.

[BigB0882]

What are the odds that SELA will see any more freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning? A few days ago the low was projected to be around 38 and now it has fallen to 33. If this comes in colder than expected, could we be in for a surprise? I doubt it would be much, maybe just on the tail end. But who knows.

[TexasSam]

[Ntxw]

Sun is going down, winds are slowing, skies are clear. Snow/ice pack is fresh. Setting stage for the coldest night in Texas since 1989. How low will the thermometers go? .

[Ntxw]

What are the odds that SELA will see any more freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning? A few days ago the low was projected to be around 38 and now it has fallen to 33. If this comes in colder than expected, could we be in for a surprise? I doubt it would be much, maybe just on the tail end. But who knows.

It's possible though less likely in this set up since the gulf low will move in NE trajectory vs out in the gulf which will put some warmer air ahead of it in SeLA. Arctic air does have a tendency to hold on stronger so there is a risk but definitely not like the storm yesterday.

[EnnisTx]

Sun is going down, winds are slowing, skies are clear. Snow/ice pack is fresh. Setting stage for the coldest night in Texas since 1989. How low will the thermometers go? .

I'm guessing around -2 at DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Sun is going down, winds are slowing, skies are clear. Snow/ice pack is fresh. Setting stage for the coldest night in Texas since 1989. How low will the thermometers go? .

Certainly a setup that favors a low temp bust, seems to be very tricky to forecast cold clear nights with low wind. I'll go with -2 at the airport.

[orangeblood]

Slow climb out of the deep dark abyss....



Next storm areal extent uncertainty is still extremely high