Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

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gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6781 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:48 pm

Forecast low is 2 on Tuesday. Who thinks we bust low and get a negative for the first time since 1989? I think we do It only if the clouds hold off until after sunrise.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6782 Postby JDawg512 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:48 pm

Chiming in again, you know I just realized these light snow flurries we are seeing here are actually coming off of Lake Travis. Can see light radar returns from Lake Travis across central and south Austin. Lake effect snow! Pretty amazing to see and never thought I'd see anything like that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6783 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:59 pm

JDawg512 wrote:Chiming in again, you know I just realized these light snow flurries we are seeing here are actually coming off of Lake Travis. Can see light radar returns from Lake Travis across central and south Austin. Lake effect snow! Pretty amazing to see and never thought I'd see anything like that.


It's happened quite a lot the past day or so. Some folks in SE Texas were reporting it too and on visible you can see thin band of clouds off Lake Sam Rayburn and Livingston. It happened with the big Lakes north of DFW. It takes a significant temperature difference (something like 13C or greater is ideal) between air temp vs water temp in addition to some orographic help for lift.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6784 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:Chiming in again, you know I just realized these light snow flurries we are seeing here are actually coming off of Lake Travis. Can see light radar returns from Lake Travis across central and south Austin. Lake effect snow! Pretty amazing to see and never thought I'd see anything like that.


It's happened quite a lot the past day or so. Some folks in SE Texas were reporting it too and on visible you can see thin band of clouds off Lake Sam Rayburn and Livingston. It happened with the big Lakes north of DFW. It takes a significant temperature difference (something like 13C or greater is ideal) between air temp vs water temp in addition to some orographic help for lift.

When you first think of Lake-Effect Snow, it's in the Great Lakes

But the Lakes of Oklahoma & Texas has stolen the spotlight this time!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6785 Postby fendie » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:01 pm

Freezing rain totals being projected for Wednesday storm.

18Z GFS:
Image

18Z NAM (3km):
Image

12Z Euro:
Image

12Z Canadian:
Image

18Z RGEM:
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6786 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:03 pm

fendie wrote:Freezing rain totals being projected for Wednesday storm.

18Z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/Pgfrqhv.png

18Z NAM (3km):
https://i.imgur.com/e1iCYgr.png

12Z Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/kxyQOXJ.png

12Z Canadian:
https://i.imgur.com/XpiTdG2.png

18Z RGEM:
https://i.imgur.com/oGPOWM5.png

ANY Texas Resident that is under the Winter Storm Warning for Ice will chose the GFS over all other models for this storm . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6787 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:12 pm

Some of the ice totals. Ugh. That will make problems worse.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6788 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:32 pm

15z SREF at DFW is wetter than any run for the last system and nice cluster over 0.75 qpf. It is warmer so sees more ice but it has consistently been too warm with this air mass.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6789 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:44 pm

So I thought maybe FW would update the *actual* snow amounts of DFW but I see nothing has changed. I hope there is an explanation.

Image

Again 4" was at midnight before the new batch that came through and DFW was light to moderate snow/half mile vis for a few hours and you tell me nothing/zero was gained? I don't buy it. I hate to keep rehashing this but it's blatantly very obvious.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6790 Postby BigD938 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:48 pm

These systems seem to get backed up to the west most time, think the system tomorrow will do the same? Temps have been colder too, so more snow than ice? Would put dfw back in the crosshairs again
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6791 Postby Haris » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:50 pm

Image

WOW WOW WOW !!! biggest snowstorm since 1949
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6792 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:52 pm

We haven’t lost power once so opening our home for a family for the night since they have had no power for over 8 hours. ERCOT will have to testify in hearings probably.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6793 Postby bohai » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:01 pm

Solar and Wind Turbines dont work well in these temps. Plus most NG fired power plants have planned shutdowns in the winter because most NG is diverted to provide heating for homes and businesses. Thus the plants are not geared up to producing excess power in the winter months.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6794 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:06 pm

What are the odds that SELA will see any more freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning? A few days ago the low was projected to be around 38 and now it has fallen to 33. If this comes in colder than expected, could we be in for a surprise? I doubt it would be much, maybe just on the tail end. But who knows.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6795 Postby TexasSam » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:44 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6796 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:45 pm

Sun is going down, winds are slowing, skies are clear. Snow/ice pack is fresh. Setting stage for the coldest night in Texas since 1989. How low will the thermometers go? :cold: .
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6797 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:47 pm

BigB0882 wrote:What are the odds that SELA will see any more freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning? A few days ago the low was projected to be around 38 and now it has fallen to 33. If this comes in colder than expected, could we be in for a surprise? I doubt it would be much, maybe just on the tail end. But who knows.

It's possible though less likely in this set up since the gulf low will move in NE trajectory vs out in the gulf which will put some warmer air ahead of it in SeLA. Arctic air does have a tendency to hold on stronger so there is a risk but definitely not like the storm yesterday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6798 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:58 pm

Ntxw wrote:Sun is going down, winds are slowing, skies are clear. Snow/ice pack is fresh. Setting stage for the coldest night in Texas since 1989. How low will the thermometers go? :cold: .


I'm guessing around -2 at DFW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6799 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:Sun is going down, winds are slowing, skies are clear. Snow/ice pack is fresh. Setting stage for the coldest night in Texas since 1989. How low will the thermometers go? :cold: .


Certainly a setup that favors a low temp bust, seems to be very tricky to forecast cold clear nights with low wind. I'll go with -2 at the airport.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6800 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:00 pm

Slow climb out of the deep dark abyss....

Image

Next storm areal extent uncertainty is still extremely high
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