2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

Many of these models (CanSIPS especially) are predicting a wetter than average Bahamas and Florida

If you don't mind can you post some of these models?

[Category5Kaiju]

Many of these models (CanSIPS especially) are predicting a wetter than average Bahamas and Florida

If you don't mind can you post some of these models?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 50200&fh=5

Here's the ASO precip anomaly from CFV2 (latest run; there have been some fluctuations over some of the past runs but in general the region near Florida and the Bahamas have typically been the wettest)

[Shell Mound]

Many of these models (CanSIPS especially) are predicting a wetter than average Bahamas and Florida

If you don't mind can you post some of these models?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 50200&fh=5

Here's the ASO precip anomaly from CFV2 (latest run; there have been some fluctuations over some of the past runs but in general the region near Florida and the Bahamas have typically been the wettest)

Actually, the past ten CanSIPS runs have been showing a lot of systems curving east of FL and/or north of the Leeward Islands and thence OTS. The CONUS is “dry.”

Edit: I was actually referring to the CFSv2 runs; I confused the two for a moment.

[JetFuel_SE]

If you don't mind can you post some of these models?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 50200&fh=5

Here's the ASO precip anomaly from CFV2 (latest run; there have been some fluctuations over some of the past runs but in general the region near Florida and the Bahamas have typically been the wettest)

Actually, the past ten CanSIPS runs have been showing a lot of systems curving east of FL and/or north of the Leeward Islands and thence OTS. The CONUS is “dry.”

Pretty sure that stuff doesn't predict storm tracks at all lmao.

[Category5Kaiju]

What I am curious about though is how precisely these precip anomalies can predict storm tracks this far in advance and how well correlated they are. I am not sure where to go for this, but I would love to see a map of what these precip anomalies looked like in May for years like 2017 and 2010 and see how well they verified after the season was done.

Also I would like to point out that while it's understandable that many folks tend to worry about US impacts as that is where they live, I don't think at this point in time there is any reliable way of knowing if this season could turn out to be one of those seasons where the US is spared from major landfalling impacts but countries like the Bahamas or Dominican Republic aren't due to the hurricane activity being concentrated more to the east. Or what about that one storm that happens to get "lucky" and get trapped under a ridge of high pressure and be able to traverse the warm Strait of Florida while the many storms behind it go on off to sea? I think there are many possibilities that still warrant preparation and consideration, and in my humble opinion just because the precip anomalies maps in May point toward a dry Caribbean or OTS storm tracks does not necessarily mean that is a done deal and that every Atlantic coast resident should brush things off and think another 2010 is going to happen.

[Kingarabian]

While anything is possible this year, I'm not so sure Modoki La Nina is in the cards yet. It's not even present and other than what some of these models are showing, currently there's nothing to support such a development. The Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions are currently much warmer than the Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 regions. In Modoki La Nina's, Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 are much cooler than Nino 3 and Nino 1+2.

The April ECMWF plume for Niño 1+2 seems to have verified considerably better than the March forecast, and it shows significant warming during MJJ, with a west-based Niña evolving by ASO. The CanSIPS shows this general evolution as well, likely due to CCKW activity + active MJO + subsurface warming. So I think there is a good chance that the warm anomalies in Niño 4+3.4 will subside over the coming months, while westerly wind anomalies focused over the eastern Niño zones will result in considerable warming there, especially relative to the western zones. This will end up reinforcing the “Modoki”-type Niña signature, given MJO-modulated periods of enhanced trades will tend to concentrate near the IDL. This will, in my view, end up being at least somewhat detrimental to Atlantic TC activity, particularly ACE, and also result in a less conducive steering regime to landfalls. We shall see.

The only way to get Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 to warm considerably more than Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 is to have strong trades over the CPAC. This hasn't been the case since mid March. Typically in neutral conditions, above average trades over the CPAC means weaker trades over the EPAC. This is now setting up on the most recent GFS 850mb wind forecast:

The only issue (for Modoki La Nina odds) is that Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 are rapidly warming due to an erupting downwelling KW and in about 10 days, the GFS has westerly anomalies building back near the dateline and the stronger trades start shifting back over the EPAC. The Euro keeps stronger trades over the dateline and very weak trades over the EPAC. A lot of the differences in the 850mb wind forecasts is due to different MJO amplitude and propagation from the models. So we'll see what actually happens in about 2 weeks with the MJO.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 18z run for GFS from today actually shows a 1005 mbar compact and closed low off of North Carolina by the 18th this month. Of course that is way into fantasy realm and things can definitely change, but I do believe this is the first time in a while that the GFS has actually spun up what looks to be a genuine TC in the North Atlantic.

[AutoPenalti]

What I am curious about though is how precisely these precip anomalies can predict storm tracks this far in advance and how well correlated they are. I am not sure where to go for this, but I would love to see a map of what these precip anomalies looked like in May for years like 2017 and 2010 and see how well they verified after the season was done.

Also I would like to point out that while it's understandable that many folks tend to worry about US impacts as that is where they live, I don't think at this point in time there is any reliable way of knowing if this season could turn out to be one of those seasons where the US is spared from major landfalling impacts but countries like the Bahamas or Dominican Republic aren't due to the hurricane activity being concentrated more to the east. Or what about that one storm that happens to get "lucky" and get trapped under a ridge of high pressure and be able to traverse the warm Strait of Florida while the many storms behind it go on off to sea? I think there are many possibilities that still warrant preparation and consideration, and in my humble opinion just because the precip anomalies maps in May point toward a dry Caribbean or OTS storm tracks does not necessarily mean that is a done deal and that every Atlantic coast resident should brush things off and think another 2010 is going to happen.

canSIPS should not be used for forecasting tracks.

[Shell Mound]

What I am curious about though is how precisely these precip anomalies can predict storm tracks this far in advance and how well correlated they are. I am not sure where to go for this, but I would love to see a map of what these precip anomalies looked like in May for years like 2017 and 2010 and see how well they verified after the season was done.

Yes, these long-range forecasts have proven to be quite accurate in the recent past, given their scope (the NMME includes CanSIPS):




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1333425301158694912

canSIPS should not be used for forecasting tracks.

Pretty sure that stuff doesn't predict storm tracks at all lmao.

I respectfully disagree. The above prove that these models can be used to form a general idea, even in the long range.

[Category5Kaiju]

What I am curious about though is how precisely these precip anomalies can predict storm tracks this far in advance and how well correlated they are. I am not sure where to go for this, but I would love to see a map of what these precip anomalies looked like in May for years like 2017 and 2010 and see how well they verified after the season was done.

Yes, these long-range forecasts have proven to be quite accurate in the recent past, given their scope (the NMME includes CanSIPS):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwD3rayXYAI6PKz?format=png&name=900x900
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2017030800/prob/images/prob_ensemble_prate_us_season5.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EydMEE1WEAUwLpc?format=png&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoDu--1VkAE9wFh?format=jpg&name=large
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1333425301158694912

canSIPS should not be used for forecasting tracks.

Pretty sure that stuff doesn't predict storm tracks at all lmao.

I respectfully disagree. The above prove that these models can be used to form a general idea, even in the long range.

Hmm ok, interesting to know. I would like to point out though at least that last year there seems to be a cluster of storm tracks (including Teddy’s) that occurred in a predicted dry zone while in the 2017 map Category 5 Maria occurred in the Far East Caribbean, which was also a predicted dry zone. So while I guess based on what you have shown there seems to be a correlation, I am not exactly sure how perfect it is as it seems like you can still get powerful storms in the brown regions. However, I still think you make a very interesting and good argument about what you think will occur this season.

Here's another interesting tweet I found regarding possible precip anomalies this season:
 https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1388989879346946049

[SFLcane]

What I am curious about though is how precisely these precip anomalies can predict storm tracks this far in advance and how well correlated they are. I am not sure where to go for this, but I would love to see a map of what these precip anomalies looked like in May for years like 2017 and 2010 and see how well they verified after the season was done.

Yes, these long-range forecasts have proven to be quite accurate in the recent past, given their scope (the NMME includes CanSIPS):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwD3rayXYAI6PKz?format=png&name=900x900
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2017030800/prob/images/prob_ensemble_prate_us_season5.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EydMEE1WEAUwLpc?format=png&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoDu--1VkAE9wFh?format=jpg&name=large
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1333425301158694912

canSIPS should not be used for forecasting tracks.

Pretty sure that stuff doesn't predict storm tracks at all lmao.

I respectfully disagree. The above prove that these models can be used to form a general idea, even in the long range.

Hmm ok, interesting to know. I would like to point out though at least that last year there seems to be a cluster of storm tracks (including Teddy’s) that occurred in a predicted dry zone while in the 2017 map Category 5 Maria occurred in the Far East Caribbean, which was also a predicted dry zone. So while I guess based on what you have shown there seems to be a correlation, I am not exactly sure how perfect it is as it seems like you can still get powerful storms in the brown regions. However, I still think you make a very interesting and good argument about what you think will occur this season.

Here's another interesting tweet I found regarding possible precip anomalies this season:
https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1388989879346946049

Yeah the climate models are rarely spot on. It’s just too far out for anything like that to be clear.

[tolakram]

Those tracks above show multiple storms going through DRY areas and a very light indication of above normal precip over LA. Sorry, I respectfully disagree with the conclusion. Looks to me like someone is squinting and trying to make a model run fit the season.

[toad strangler]

And furthermore, even if those tracks were close to model progg (they aren't, kinda all over the place), it wouldn't be "proof" or evidence of anything. Would have to see many more instances with better results before throwing around the P word. I'm in the camp that doesn't believe these models are hinting at potential storm tracks.

[SFLcane]

Just a few weeks away from potential development across the Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1389588877162254339

[AutoPenalti]

I don't think the background state is favorable for development at the moment.

[Iceresistance]

Just a few weeks away from potential development across the Atlantic.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1389588877162254339

Oh no, that does not sound good, the MJO is not just favoring hurricane development, it's also favoring Severe Weather as well!

Keep in mind that 2020 had hurricanes in SINKING air of the MJO phase . . .

[Kingarabian]

May Euro seasonal:
MSLP for September:


ASO rainfall:

[Iceresistance]

May Euro seasonal:
MSLP for September:
https://i.postimg.cc/ncvHzz4L/image.png

ASO rainfall:
https://i.postimg.cc/xTHdzg2n/image.png

The Euro wants a full-blown El Niño by September . . .

EDIT: I mean La Niña . . .

[Iceresistance]

Early May SST anomalies, This is REALLY not looking good at all, we could have SEVERAL Cape Verde type ACE makers!

[Kingarabian]

May Euro seasonal:
MSLP for September:
https://i.postimg.cc/ncvHzz4L/image.png

ASO rainfall:
https://i.postimg.cc/xTHdzg2n/image.png

The Euro wants a full-blown El Niño by September . . .

That's not an El Nino look. The parameter I posted is for MSLP. Bright reds mean higher pressure. The Euro has high pressures compared to normal over the EPAC.