2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

They could still show development in another day or so. The seeds for development are present so these aren't exactly ghosts. But what's the excuse for the models now? Airliners are almost back operating at pre-2020 levels... so that excuse is gone.

And some of the model solution in the past days were pretty unrealistic to begin with, showing deep TC's over an area that climo prohibits development.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is very bullish with the second one.

[Kingarabian]

18z a bit more realistic with the first system. For late May, No El Nino and no +PDO, 1000mb-1005mb is probably the peak @ 14.5N/112W.

[JW-_-]

12z eps run.




RE this models info on meteologix.

This map displays the forecast tracks of tropical cyclones according to the ECMWF’s EPS (ensemble prediction system). The color of each dot corresponds to the forecast intensity of a given tropical system at a given time by a given ensemble member. Use this map to get a sense of forecast uncertainty. If all the track lines are clustered closely together, you can have a high degree of confidence in the track forecast. If all the colors are the same, you can have a high degree of confidence in the intensity forecast. Do note however that the ensembles can underestimate the intensity of a very strong storm, especially in the near term.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico by this
weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves generally westward at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of Mexico later this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

[JW-_-]

Above pretty much what ec mean was thinking.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS makes the right (0/20) system a hurricane again and brought back the left.

[JW-_-]

Boms 18 had the right/s lpa may just start to begin to flare-up on Saturday.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS more bullish again. Shows the first system as a pretty decent 999mb TS in the open EPAC. Would be quite a feat if this materializes.


Deepens the second system to 973mb:

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC loses the first system and develops the second system:

[Kingarabian]

Very unsettled out there over the EPAC. The system near 125W has very little development odds but is worth the circle.

[Yellow Evan]

The 125W system isn't forming. Global models almost never underdue tropical cyclone genesis when an area of enhanced convection whether that's a CCKW or MJO is approaching, and it has no model support.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico by this
weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves generally westward at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of Mexico later this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF has the left 0/30 system again though weak. Same run tries to form the right 0/20 system.

[JW-_-]

Icon @ Saturday

icon tuesday



GFS Monday.



leave it here for me. Yellow and king know this basin like the back of their hand. Will look in to see what they are thinking over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Copy and paste from yesterday.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed May 26 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by this
weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system as it moves generally westward at
5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of Mexico later this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Plenty of activity along the ITCZ today. Let's see where the two low pressures will form.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS moves a potent hurricane into Guerrero and eventually re-develops it in the GOM.

[Hurricanehink]

https://i.imgur.com/b0Sf6qW.png

https://i.imgur.com/o0ml4De.png

6z GFS moves a potent hurricane into Guerrero and eventually re-develops it in the GOM.

A Cosme-Allison 89 repeat?

[cycloneye]

Nothing new:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed May 26 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by this
weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system as it moves generally westward at
5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch