2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS similar to 6z but no crossover.

[cycloneye]

GFS is alone on development among the operational ones.

[aspen]

GFS is alone on development among the operational ones.

Seems that the Euro upgrade hasn’t totally fixed its troubles with TCG. Maybe it’ll perform better with other systems if it does indeed bust with the 0/30 and/or 0/20 AOIs

[Yellow Evan]

12z ICON and CMC don't have either as an actual tropical cyclone anymore.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/grj4SjP.png

https://i.imgur.com/aplFXXC.png

12z GFS similar to 6z but no crossover.

Aside from the EPAC-GOM crossover, this is probably what climo favors. More realistic compared to the runs from it and other models, that kept showing a deep TC over the open EPAC waters.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/grj4SjP.png

https://i.imgur.com/aplFXXC.png

12z GFS similar to 6z but no crossover.

Aside from the EPAC-GOM crossover, this is probably what climo favors. More realistic compared to the runs from it and other models, that kept showing a deep TC over the open EPAC waters.

Perhaps, and I'll use this chance to add on to what I was saying a few pages back. TCs over open EPAC waters early season were only really rare (west of ~105W or so) in the 2000's and considering long term AGW is likely to shift activity further west, I would not be that surprised if you told me at the start of the season that there were a couple systems of moderate/strong intensity from 110W-120W in late May/early June. Hell last year we had a TD in late April near 115W. I am skeptical of a system becoming strong at a low latitude this far east, because that's literally never happened before.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS through 90 hour. Will upload to imgur but said site is not working atm.

[Kingarabian]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021052618/gfs_mslpa_epac_16.png

18z GFs through 90 hour. Will upload to imgur but said site is not working atm.

https://postimages.org/ is pretty straight forward.

[cycloneye]

Down to 0/10 the second one and the other one remains at 0/30.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 26 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by this
weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development of this system as it moves generally westward at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. However,
environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for any
development as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS finishes off with a similar track to 12z.

[Kingarabian]

00z development in less than 3 days. Peaks it @ 960mb while meandering it around 110W:

[Kingarabian]

GFS on its own here.


UKMET/CMC/ICON show nothing.

[JW-_-]

https://postimg.cc/S2KD6JfX

[aspen]

12z GFS has both AOIs develop into pathetically weak tropical storms.

[cycloneye]

The models are a mess with the ups and downs on development.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 27 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about a thousand miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for development of this
system as it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south of the coast of southeastern Mexico by this weekend.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development of this system as it moves generally westward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has both AOIs develop into pathetically weak tropical storms.

This is probably the most realistic outcome.

[Kingarabian]

I think both systems worthy of an invest tag:

[Yellow Evan]

It’s either now or never for the EPAC at least for the next month or so because the ASW is about to take over.

[Kingarabian]

I still think the EPAC can push out some systems in June, regardless of the suppressed MJO phase. The base state is more favorable compared to last year as we can tell with large periods of enhanced convection from passing tropical atmospheric waves.The ENSO forecasts from the models show Nino regions will be warming through July.