2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[DorkyMcDorkface]

June Canadian seasonal has weak La Nina for ASO:

https://i.postimg.cc/XvDXksYJ/image.png

It is initializing SST anomalies @ Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 wrong though, about 0.3/0.5 degree off. It's still favoring a cooler Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 and a warmer Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. This setup has failed to materialize despite repeated model forecasts.

VP200 forecast favors a very active Atlantic hurricane season -- with a more favorable VP200 signature for July compared to what the 46 days EPS is currently showing.
https://i.postimg.cc/8PhHX6WD/image.png

There's some mixed signals overall...while ENSO, shear and the VP configuration it is depicting are each very favorable, the overall look of the precip density isn't too impressive, which likely has to do with the mediocre SST configuration it is showing. Bit of a -AMM look with warm Gulf of Guinea combined with an almost EOF2 +AMO. Combined, this could suppress the ITCZ and enhance stability over the MDR/deep tropics à la 2019.

https://i.ibb.co/WKXLL0b/cansips-apcpna-multimonth-atl-3.png
https://i.ibb.co/WcHQthg/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-atl-3.png

To what degree do these models suffer from excessive feedback? If these conditions were to occur as modelled, would the effects be as suppressive as indicated?

That I do not know. I do recall models underestimating the impact of the WAM in prior years somewhat (specifically 2018 and 2019) but at the same time that's not exactly something that can be gauged and determined with clarity, so don't trust me on that.

[SFLcane]

There will be a study published today from my good friend Ryan Truchelut from Weathertiger. There seems to be some correlation with precip anomalies and Florida hurricane strikes dating back to 1900-2020. The article will be out today.

[toad strangler]

There will be a study published today from my good friend Ryan Truchelut from Weathertiger. There seems to be some correlation with precip anomalies and Florida hurricane strikes dating back to 1900-2020. The article will be out today.

You hinted at this last week IRT DRY S FL precip anomalies in this thread. While it sounds like Farmers Almanac type stuff to me I will read it and give it a shot.

[CourierPR]

There will be a study published today from my good friend Ryan Truchelut from Weathertiger. There seems to be some correlation with precip anomalies and Florida hurricane strikes dating back to 1900-2020. The article will be out today.

You hinted at this last week IRT DRY S FL precip anomalies in this thread. While it sounds like Farmers Almanac type stuff to me I will read it and give it a shot.

It has been said that a dry May correlates with a higher probability of a hurricane strike in Florida.

[NotSparta]

There will be a study published today from my good friend Ryan Truchelut from Weathertiger. There seems to be some correlation with precip anomalies and Florida hurricane strikes dating back to 1900-2020. The article will be out today.

You hinted at this last week IRT DRY S FL precip anomalies in this thread. While it sounds like Farmers Almanac type stuff to me I will read it and give it a shot.

It has been said that a dry May correlates with a higher probability of a hurricane strike in Florida.

Apparently the years used were drier in the Miami area than last May, but it was even drier in SW Florida, not sure how much the correlation is here. Hopefully nothing hits either way

[chaser1]

There will be a study published today from my good friend Ryan Truchelut from Weathertiger. There seems to be some correlation with precip anomalies and Florida hurricane strikes dating back to 1900-2020. The article will be out today.

Should make for an interesting read.

[Shell Mound]

There will be a study published today from my good friend Ryan Truchelut from Weathertiger. There seems to be some correlation with precip anomalies and Florida hurricane strikes dating back to 1900-2020. The article will be out today.

Should make for an interesting read.

Last month, as your water bills attest, was in the driest 20% of Mays for the majority of Florida, and the absolute driest on record for some in Central and South Central Florida. ...

In South Florida’s driest 10% of Mays since 1900, a direct hurricane hit on the Southwest or Southeast Florida coast occurred later that year a little over 40% of the time, as opposed to around 20% otherwise. Of course, that 40% represents just five years out of the driest twelve since 1900, so a few random hurricane landfalls can dramatically skew perceptions. ...

The mechanism by which Lushine proposed his theory worked is that the strong high pressure keeping South Florida dry in May persists into the peak of the season and steers hurricanes towards the state. However, we ran the numbers on that idea (above), and found that anomalous high-pressure ridging in May does not predict August/September ridging between Florida and Bermuda in meaningful way.

Source

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/curryja/status/1400508284902117377



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1400471751713247232



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1400484470885654541





Note that the warmest anomalies thus far are mainly displaced from the regions that exhibit the strongest positive correlation(s) with seasonal ACE.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html

I know it's very early June and things can change, but something that I recently noticed was the little amount of Sahara dust that is forecast to emerge off of Africa in the coming days. Like this is a huge contrast to what we saw last year at this time if I recall.

[Shell Mound]

https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html

I know it's very early June and things can change, but something that I recently noticed was the little amount of Sahara dust that is forecast to emerge off of Africa in the coming days. Like this is a huge contrast to what we saw last year at this time if I recall.

If the SST profile in the Atlantic continues to reflect an -AAM signature through ASO, then a weaker African monsoon vs. last year would not help systems consolidate. Latest trends suggest that Niño 1+2 could be the warmest parts of the tropical Pacific during ASO, which would interact with the -AAM to produce El Niño-like suppressive effects over the MDR and Caribbean, shutting down homegrown activity in late September and most of October, and also result in a stronger TUTT that would weaken the subtropical ridge and decrease the threat of Cat-4+ U.S. hurricane impacts due to an inactive MDR. If this happens I only foresee an ACE of 120 at best, and my forecast for an ACE of ~190 (posted in the “numbers” thread) would bust, too. From the EPAC thread:

For the entire month of June, the 46 day EPS shows very weak trade wind averages over Nino 3, Nino 1+2 as well as portions of Nino 3.4 (Also westerly anomalies in the Atlantic MDR!):
https://i.imgur.com/KFDDAQ8.png

This means that there's a good chance that the EPAC SST's will be warmer for the heart of the season, as well a bit more rising motion since extended period of warm SST's eventually influences localized rising motion. This favors EPAC activity through August and maybe September At the same, trade winds will be stronger than average near the dateline and this will promote upwelling Kelvin wave(s) that in theory would reach the EPAC by August. So the status of EPAC activity in September, October, and November is up in the air. There seems to be enough OHC to raise the Nino region SST's to +0.3C/+0.4C levels. If this happens then upwelling KW activity theoretically could be offset before cool anomalies take over in October and November.

TLDR; Model forecasts currently pointing to enhanced (?) EPAC activity early September before a resurgent weak La Nina slowly winds the season down earlier than normal.

Another back-loaded season à la 2016? I think that ACE will likely be on the order of 100–120, given lukewarm SSTs + EPAC interference + warm Gulf of Guinea.

[Kingarabian]

https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html

I know it's very early June and things can change, but something that I recently noticed was the little amount of Sahara dust that is forecast to emerge off of Africa in the coming days. Like this is a huge contrast to what we saw last year at this time if I recall.

If the SST profile in the Atlantic continues to reflect an -AAM signature through ASO, then a weaker African monsoon vs. last year would not help systems consolidate. Latest trends suggest that Niño 1+2 could be the warmest parts of the tropical Pacific during ASO, which would interact with the -AAM to produce El Niño-like suppressive effects over the MDR and Caribbean, shutting down homegrown activity in late September and most of October, and also result in a stronger TUTT that would weaken the subtropical ridge and decrease the threat of Cat-4+ U.S. hurricane impacts due to an inactive MDR. If this happens I only foresee an ACE of 120 at best, and my forecast for an ACE of ~190 (posted in the “numbers” thread) would bust, too. From the EPAC thread:

For the entire month of June, the 46 day EPS shows very weak trade wind averages over Nino 3, Nino 1+2 as well as portions of Nino 3.4 (Also westerly anomalies in the Atlantic MDR!):
https://i.imgur.com/KFDDAQ8.png

This means that there's a good chance that the EPAC SST's will be warmer for the heart of the season, as well a bit more rising motion since extended period of warm SST's eventually influences localized rising motion. This favors EPAC activity through August and maybe September At the same, trade winds will be stronger than average near the dateline and this will promote upwelling Kelvin wave(s) that in theory would reach the EPAC by August. So the status of EPAC activity in September, October, and November is up in the air. There seems to be enough OHC to raise the Nino region SST's to +0.3C/+0.4C levels. If this happens then upwelling KW activity theoretically could be offset before cool anomalies take over in October and November.

TLDR; Model forecasts currently pointing to enhanced (?) EPAC activity early September before a resurgent weak La Nina slowly winds the season down earlier than normal.

Another back-loaded season à la 2016? I think that ACE will likely be on the order of 100–120, given lukewarm SSTs + EPAC interference + warm Gulf of Guinea.

The Atlantic will likely be more active than 2016 though. And I seriously doubt the EPAC will be as active as 2016 which was the 5th active on record. 2016 had a +PDO to aid the EPAC. That wont be present this year.

[NDG]

https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html

I know it's very early June and things can change, but something that I recently noticed was the little amount of Sahara dust that is forecast to emerge off of Africa in the coming days. Like this is a huge contrast to what we saw last year at this time if I recall.

Give it a few days, it is actually kind of early for dust outbreaks, it usually gets going in the second half of June.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

You hinted at this last week IRT DRY S FL precip anomalies in this thread. While it sounds like Farmers Almanac type stuff to me I will read it and give it a shot.

It has been said that a dry May correlates with a higher probability of a hurricane strike in Florida.

Apparently the years used were drier in the Miami area than last May, but it was even drier in SW Florida, not sure how much the correlation is here. Hopefully nothing hits either way

I don't buy it - I recall May 2007 being very dry in Florida and there were no hurricane strikes.

[Category5Kaiju]

It has been said that a dry May correlates with a higher probability of a hurricane strike in Florida.

Apparently the years used were drier in the Miami area than last May, but it was even drier in SW Florida, not sure how much the correlation is here. Hopefully nothing hits either way

I don't buy it - I recall May 2007 being very dry in Florida and there were no hurricane strikes.

2007 imho was a really weird hurricane season. There were 2 destructive Category 5 hurricanes that made landfall at such strength, yet aside from them it was basically another 2013. Perhaps one of the strongest and weakest hurricane seasons recorded all at once

[Category5Kaiju]

By the way I know people have been saying that in recent years the WAM has played a major role in warming up the Atlantic during the summer and allowing more tropical waves to be spit out and possibly lead to TCG, but out of curiosity has the WAM been very strong in active years more into the past like 1995, 1999, 2004, 2005, or 2010?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1400878629207293964



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1399828813979262981



 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1400207898744180736



 https://twitter.com/JohnnyParker012/status/1399744825000407042

[Shell Mound]

https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html

I know it's very early June and things can change, but something that I recently noticed was the little amount of Sahara dust that is forecast to emerge off of Africa in the coming days. Like this is a huge contrast to what we saw last year at this time if I recall.

If the SST profile in the Atlantic continues to reflect an -AAM signature through ASO, then a weaker African monsoon vs. last year would not help systems consolidate. Latest trends suggest that Niño 1+2 could be the warmest parts of the tropical Pacific during ASO, which would interact with the -AAM to produce El Niño-like suppressive effects over the MDR and Caribbean, shutting down homegrown activity in late September and most of October, and also result in a stronger TUTT that would weaken the subtropical ridge and decrease the threat of Cat-4+ U.S. hurricane impacts due to an inactive MDR. If this happens I only foresee an ACE of 120 at best, and my forecast for an ACE of ~190 (posted in the “numbers” thread) would bust, too. From the EPAC thread:

For the entire month of June, the 46 day EPS shows very weak trade wind averages over Nino 3, Nino 1+2 as well as portions of Nino 3.4 (Also westerly anomalies in the Atlantic MDR!):
https://i.imgur.com/KFDDAQ8.png

This means that there's a good chance that the EPAC SST's will be warmer for the heart of the season, as well a bit more rising motion since extended period of warm SST's eventually influences localized rising motion. This favors EPAC activity through August and maybe September At the same, trade winds will be stronger than average near the dateline and this will promote upwelling Kelvin wave(s) that in theory would reach the EPAC by August. So the status of EPAC activity in September, October, and November is up in the air. There seems to be enough OHC to raise the Nino region SST's to +0.3C/+0.4C levels. If this happens then upwelling KW activity theoretically could be offset before cool anomalies take over in October and November.

TLDR; Model forecasts currently pointing to enhanced (?) EPAC activity early September before a resurgent weak La Nina slowly winds the season down earlier than normal.

Another back-loaded season à la 2016? I think that ACE will likely be on the order of 100–120, given lukewarm SSTs + EPAC interference + warm Gulf of Guinea.

The Atlantic will likely be more active than 2016 though. And I seriously doubt the EPAC will be as active as 2016 which was the 5th active on record. 2016 had a +PDO to aid the EPAC. That wont be present this year.

How suppressive do you think the -AAM (EOF2 +AMO) + warm Gulf of Guinea may prove to be come ASO?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

So the ECMWF's SEAS5 just came out and uh...

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1400878629207293964
https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1399828813979262981
https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1400207898744180736
https://twitter.com/JohnnyParker012/status/1399744825000407042

Yeah I’m not sure I buy the CanSIPS moisture forecast for ASON. It isn’t just dry, it seems unrealistically dry across essentially the entire tropical Atlantic from Africa to the US. Have any years compared to that moisture forecast?

[SFLcane]

New June Euro steering is out…Don’t look now Florida. Rather ominous

It’s dry bias though is ridiculous