
2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GFS is a #climo run albeit WAY OUT in fantasy range. Which GOM fork in the road will Mr. or Mrs. June take....


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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Ivanhater, they can also add a new area in BOC to then have two circles.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:Ivanhater, they can also add a new area in BOC to then have two circles.
I think you may be right Luis. May draw a huge circle with all the different model solutions

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Ivanhater wrote:cycloneye wrote:Ivanhater, they can also add a new area in BOC to then have two circles.
I think you may be right Luis. May draw a huge circle with all the different model solutions
Oh no.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12Z Euro is the strongest run yet.
CMC and Gfs with same storm around June 18th



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CMC and Gfs with same storm around June 18th



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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Global hazard graphic highlights Western Caribbean and BOC / WGOM on week 2.


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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Euro with the 985 mb cat 1 Hurricane, interesting indeed that would be for June however its still too far out im certain something will form June 16th but the intensity will be anyone's guess until a week from now.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
agreed. When the models come to a consensus, something is up in the atlantic.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The 00z ICON, CMC, and Euro, as well as the 06z GFS, show the CAG consolidating into a system in the Bay of Campeche sometime mid to late next week. It’s surprising how well of a consensus the models are at right now for something beyond the 5-7 day time frame, especially the Euro, which absolutely sucked with TCG last season.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:The 00z ICON, CMC, and Euro, as well as the 06z GFS, show the CAG consolidating into a system in the Bay of Campeche sometime mid to late next week. It’s surprising how well of a consensus the models are at right now for something beyond the 5-7 day time frame, especially the Euro, which absolutely sucked with TCG last season.
Maybe more data from flights✈️ is helping the models this season.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12Z GFS

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Ivanhater wrote:12Z GFS
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210609/00c1f39fb0158d4100f1e49d99f4eda6.jpg
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That's 06z.
12z GFS drops development.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
AutoPenalti wrote:Ivanhater wrote:12Z GFS
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210609/00c1f39fb0158d4100f1e49d99f4eda6.jpg
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That's 06z.
12z GFS drops development.
12z GFS focuses the CAG on the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic side. Only time will tell which side wins out, so we’ll probably see it flip-flopping for the next several days until a specific solution becomes clearer.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

Latest GFS send the BoC system up towards Florida, but upper level winds really string it out. The 0z ICON had a 1002 mb TS heading towards Mexico at h180. The CMC developed a low, burying it before it could develop.
So two scenarios are energy getting bungled over CA, or a sheared climo-style TC for the gulf coast. There's still lots of run to run variability so we'll just have to wait and see

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
00z Euro shows a tropical storm into the Tx/La border region in 10 days. 06z GFS shows a similar scenario. Watch and wait. Still 8-10 days out.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
00Z Euro and 06Z GFS


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