2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is a #climo run albeit WAY OUT in fantasy range. Which GOM fork in the road will Mr. or Mrs. June take....

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater, they can also add a new area in BOC to then have two circles.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, they can also add a new area in BOC to then have two circles.

I think you may be right Luis. May draw a huge circle with all the different model solutions

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater, they can also add a new area in BOC to then have two circles.

I think you may be right Luis. May draw a huge circle with all the different model solutions

Oh no.

[jaguars_22]

Sure hope the euro is not accurate look out Texas

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro is the strongest run yet.

CMC and Gfs with same storm around June 18th




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[hurricane2025]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[cycloneye]

Global hazard graphic highlights Western Caribbean and BOC / WGOM on week 2.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro 240 hours:

[Stormybajan]

Euro with the 985 mb cat 1 Hurricane, interesting indeed that would be for June however its still too far out im certain something will form June 16th but the intensity will be anyone's guess until a week from now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

agreed. When the models come to a consensus, something is up in the atlantic.

[aspen]

The 00z ICON, CMC, and Euro, as well as the 06z GFS, show the CAG consolidating into a system in the Bay of Campeche sometime mid to late next week. It’s surprising how well of a consensus the models are at right now for something beyond the 5-7 day time frame, especially the Euro, which absolutely sucked with TCG last season.

[wxman22]

The 00z ICON, CMC, and Euro, as well as the 06z GFS, show the CAG consolidating into a system in the Bay of Campeche sometime mid to late next week. It’s surprising how well of a consensus the models are at right now for something beyond the 5-7 day time frame, especially the Euro, which absolutely sucked with TCG last season.

Maybe more data from flights✈️ is helping the models this season.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS




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[AutoPenalti]

12Z GFS


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210609/00c1f39fb0158d4100f1e49d99f4eda6.jpg

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That's 06z.

12z GFS drops development.

[aspen]

12Z GFS


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210609/00c1f39fb0158d4100f1e49d99f4eda6.jpg

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That's 06z.

12z GFS drops development.

12z GFS focuses the CAG on the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic side. Only time will tell which side wins out, so we’ll probably see it flip-flopping for the next several days until a specific solution becomes clearer.

[hurricane2025]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[Ubuntwo]

Latest GFS send the BoC system up towards Florida, but upper level winds really string it out. The 0z ICON had a 1002 mb TS heading towards Mexico at h180. The CMC developed a low, burying it before it could develop.

So two scenarios are energy getting bungled over CA, or a sheared climo-style TC for the gulf coast. There's still lots of run to run variability so we'll just have to wait and see

[ronjon]

00z Euro shows a tropical storm into the Tx/La border region in 10 days. 06z GFS shows a similar scenario. Watch and wait. Still 8-10 days out.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro and 06Z GFS





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