2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[hurricane2025]

One thing to remember this year we have airlines busy!! Last year we didn’t due to Covid so we couldn’t get as much data model wise, our commercial planes collect temps pressure dew points and it's all fed into the models, like mobile weather stations.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro shifts east



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[ronjon]

18z GFS similar to 12z Euro but splits the energy with a piece going east and one going west. Models starting to pick up on a trough coming down into the northern gulf which would probably shear the system to death as it approaches from the south. Still way out there. though.

[Kingarabian]

Shot at sub tropical develop in about a week:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 36.0N 73.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2021 132 36.0N 73.9W 1001 36
0000UTC 17.06.2021 144 40.3N 67.3W 996 41

[Hammy]

Is it me or are the models showing quite a few strong tropical waves for this time of year in the MDR?

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe a thread for the system off SC needs to be added.... rapid spin up is possible.. as it heads NE Still partially attached to a weak trough. but a little convection that should be coming soon would take care of that..

[Aric Dunn]

Also need to watch the Tear Drop in the NE gulf as it crosses Florida and into the Atlantic overnight and into tomorrow.

[StPeteMike]

Was going to say Aric, the system off the SC coast should be monitored as models had hinted of something shaping up there. And as we have seen before, storms there can materialize without much model support and out of the blue.

[JW-_-]

The MDR is looking intriguing atm on the models. Early td potential?

[Shell Mound]

The MDR is looking intriguing atm on the models. Early td potential?
https://i.imgur.com/sDn8FTM.png
https://i.imgur.com/McT5l4M.png

Numerous 00Z GEFS members show TS Claudette forming over the eastern MDR in two to three days, surpassing Bret (‘17) as the earliest TC in the MDR on record.

[Aric Dunn]

Also still need to watch the Tear drop that crossed Florida yesterday on the heals of soon to be Bill.

Could see another quick spin up.. chances are lower than with what spawned Bill.

But the conditions are there.

[aspen]

Also need to watch the Tear Drop in the NE gulf as it crosses Florida and into the Atlantic overnight and into tomorrow.

What do you think about the tropical wave that the GFS thinks could become an extremely early MDR TC?

[Aric Dunn]

Also need to watch the Tear Drop in the NE gulf as it crosses Florida and into the Atlantic overnight and into tomorrow.

What do you think about the tropical wave that the GFS thinks could become an extremely early MDR TC?

It is very impressive.. one more decent convective burst and development is highly likely..

[SFLcane]

2 capeverde TC’s for June…Now that would be something!

[aspen]

Does anyone know why the HWRF isn’t updating? 92L hasn’t had any model runs in over 48 hours, and it still shows the 06z run for 93L from yesterday.

[Shell Mound]

2 capeverde TC’s for June…Now that would be something!

https://i.imgur.com/sTcPCvZ.gif

This is clearly going to bust, given the GFS’s usual bias. The latest runs no longer develop 94L, for instance, showing an open tropical wave instead.

[Kingarabian]

Super long range (300-384hours out) 00z GFS and EPS show another CAG with potential for a system in the WCarribean/BOC/EPAC.

[StPeteMike]

I don’t see anything really coming from the W Caribbean or GOM within the next 2 weeks. Though the models sorta saw this system we have now far out, I feel like these long range models are showing their bias than forecasting anything serious.

[Kingarabian]

I don’t see anything really coming from the W Caribbean or GOM within the next 2 weeks. Though the models sorta saw this system we have now far out, I feel like these long range models are showing their bias than forecasting anything serious.

GFS has a noticeable large area of convection rotating near Costa Rica and Panama. Looks to be aided by an AEW:


It eventually moves NW though continues to remain inland:


CMC also shows sort of the same thing but with a couple of better defined vorts.


So this is leading to some members from different ensembles showing closed of low pressure areas in the Pacific or Atlantic sides. Probably not exactly a CAG but something just as messy. The models have been showing this setup for a little while now so the trend/signal is there.

[StPeteMike]

We might get another early MDR invest around the 25/26, the GFS has been teasing a TD/TS forming around where 94L formed earlier this week. Even if nothing spawns from it, these strong waves should worry some about what August and the rest of the season will deliver.