2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[CyclonicFury]

[Yellow Evan]

MJO should be in the area by then IIRC so I wouldn’t dismiss it.

[Stormybajan]

:double:
https://i.imgur.com/TnIDWfH.png

I had to do a double take when I saw 973 mb over Martinque, like what. GFS Fantasy land in full swing, however what this tells me is to look for development in the MDR around that timeframe, have to just ignore the intensity for now cause...

[Kingarabian]

MJO is in the circle and will eventually restart in the IO.

This is likely due to another CCKW, currently over the CPAC. CMC also has it but weaker. Could end up stronger than last weeks robust AEW.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro:

[JetFuel_SE]

Don't like the looks of this one...

[toad strangler]

Saturday 12z GFS again showing we get to monitor a strong wave cross the MDR at the end of June.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Saturday 12z GFS again showing we get to monitor a strong wave cross the MDR at the end of June.

http://i.ibb.co/VY1QLGP/GFS.png

I've seen the ECMWF hinting at something similar past runs.

[tailgater]

The tail of Claudette has a chance to develop into something, probably a weak lopsided system again possibly heading toward the big bend area in general. Just following the wake of Claudette.
I’d give it a 10% chance atm.

[aspen]

Saturday 12z GFS again showing we get to monitor a strong wave cross the MDR at the end of June.

http://i.ibb.co/VY1QLGP/GFS.png

That wave first rolls off the coast in exactly a week. Then, either due to a CAG or a sleeper wave, a TC starts forming in the Caribbean on Monday the 28th before heading into the Gulf.

Let’s see if these start to appear consistently on at least the GFS for the next few days. Any wave-born system this early in the year would be a sign for an active peak season.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS drops it for now:
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1406241887409770497

[Shell Mound]

:double:
https://i.imgur.com/TnIDWfH.png

I had to do a double take when I saw 973 mb over Martinque, like what. GFS Fantasy land in full swing, however what this tells me is to look for development in the MDR around that timeframe, have to just ignore the intensity for now cause...

The GFS is showing fantasies as is usual. It also showed 94L developing, only to fail miserably. I doubt that we’ll see anything in the MDR before August.

[aspen]

:double:
https://i.imgur.com/TnIDWfH.png

I had to do a double take when I saw 973 mb over Martinque, like what. GFS Fantasy land in full swing, however what this tells me is to look for development in the MDR around that timeframe, have to just ignore the intensity for now cause...

The GFS is showing fantasies as is usual. It also showed 94L developing, only to fail miserably. I doubt that we’ll see anything in the MDR before August.

I wouldn’t say it “failed miserably”; at most, it only showed a ~1007 mbar TC, either a TD or a marginal named storm.

Speaking of the GFS and MDR systems, the 06z run is back to showing that wave set to emerge next weekend developing into a TC, peaking in the high 990s. The Euro and CMC also show this wave, but with little to no development. It looks to be a potent wave regardless. This GFS run also shows that CAG/BOC system around the 180-210 hour mark.

[Kazmit]

06z GFS takes a TS across the entire MDR.

[Aric Dunn]

Best be watching this wave in the central Atlantic closely for that convection to persist.... looks to already have solid ( but small) 850 mb circ.

These small systems very often slip under the radar of all the models.

[aspen]

The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.

946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.

[aspen]

The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.

946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.

Lmao Cat 4 Hurricane Elsa in early July…like that’s ever gonna happen. If it does, I will eat my hat.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.

946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.

The hurricane that hits texas is the wave I posted above..

the wave aspen is talking about is the wave that exists the coast of Africa on the 24th and has been developing each run.. it finally develops in the eastern Carib as the hurricane is approaching the texas coast

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.

946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.

Lmao Cat 4 Hurricane Elsa in early July…like that’s ever gonna happen. If it does, I will eat my hat.

If that happens I will fly from Phoenix to Houston, stand outside on the sidewalk as the storm arrives, and get out a wicked electric guitar and sing a very evil version of "Let It Go" at the top of my lungs