2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#201 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:05 am

:double:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#202 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:17 am

MJO should be in the area by then IIRC so I wouldn’t dismiss it.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#203 Postby Stormybajan » Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:28 am

CyclonicFury wrote::double:
https://i.imgur.com/TnIDWfH.png


:double: I had to do a double take when I saw 973 mb over Martinque, like what. GFS Fantasy land in full swing, however what this tells me is to look for development in the MDR around that timeframe, have to just ignore the intensity for now cause... :double:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#204 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:57 am

MJO is in the circle and will eventually restart in the IO.

This is likely due to another CCKW, currently over the CPAC. CMC also has it but weaker. Could end up stronger than last weeks robust AEW.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#205 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:43 am

00z Euro:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#206 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:36 am

Don't like the looks of this one...
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#207 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:34 am

Saturday 12z GFS again showing we get to monitor a strong wave cross the MDR at the end of June.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#208 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:45 am

toad strangler wrote:Saturday 12z GFS again showing we get to monitor a strong wave cross the MDR at the end of June.

http://i.ibb.co/VY1QLGP/GFS.png


I've seen the ECMWF hinting at something similar past runs.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#209 Postby tailgater » Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:22 pm

The tail of Claudette has a chance to develop into something, probably a weak lopsided system again possibly heading toward the big bend area in general. Just following the wake of Claudette.
I’d give it a 10% chance atm.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#210 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:40 pm

toad strangler wrote:Saturday 12z GFS again showing we get to monitor a strong wave cross the MDR at the end of June.

http://i.ibb.co/VY1QLGP/GFS.png

That wave first rolls off the coast in exactly a week. Then, either due to a CAG or a sleeper wave, a TC starts forming in the Caribbean on Monday the 28th before heading into the Gulf.

Let’s see if these start to appear consistently on at least the GFS for the next few days. Any wave-born system this early in the year would be a sign for an active peak season.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#211 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:24 pm

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#212 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:38 am

Stormybajan wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote::double:
https://i.imgur.com/TnIDWfH.png


:double: I had to do a double take when I saw 973 mb over Martinque, like what. GFS Fantasy land in full swing, however what this tells me is to look for development in the MDR around that timeframe, have to just ignore the intensity for now cause... :double:

The GFS is showing fantasies as is usual. It also showed 94L developing, only to fail miserably. I doubt that we’ll see anything in the MDR before August.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#213 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:27 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Stormybajan wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote::double:
https://i.imgur.com/TnIDWfH.png


:double: I had to do a double take when I saw 973 mb over Martinque, like what. GFS Fantasy land in full swing, however what this tells me is to look for development in the MDR around that timeframe, have to just ignore the intensity for now cause... :double:

The GFS is showing fantasies as is usual. It also showed 94L developing, only to fail miserably. I doubt that we’ll see anything in the MDR before August.

I wouldn’t say it “failed miserably”; at most, it only showed a ~1007 mbar TC, either a TD or a marginal named storm.

Speaking of the GFS and MDR systems, the 06z run is back to showing that wave set to emerge next weekend developing into a TC, peaking in the high 990s. The Euro and CMC also show this wave, but with little to no development. It looks to be a potent wave regardless. This GFS run also shows that CAG/BOC system around the 180-210 hour mark.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#214 Postby Kazmit » Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:27 am

06z GFS takes a TS across the entire MDR.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#215 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:12 am

Best be watching this wave in the central Atlantic closely for that convection to persist.... looks to already have solid ( but small) 850 mb circ.

These small systems very often slip under the radar of all the models.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#216 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:31 am

The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#217 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:59 am

aspen wrote:The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.


946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#218 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:00 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.


946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.

Lmao Cat 4 Hurricane Elsa in early July…like that’s ever gonna happen. If it does, I will eat my hat.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#219 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:01 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.


946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.


The hurricane that hits texas is the wave I posted above..

the wave aspen is talking about is the wave that exists the coast of Africa on the 24th and has been developing each run.. it finally develops in the eastern Carib as the hurricane is approaching the texas coast
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#220 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:09 pm

aspen wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:The 12z GFS is unable to develop the potent wave, but it’s stronger with the CAG system by 192 hours.


946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.

Lmao Cat 4 Hurricane Elsa in early July…like that’s ever gonna happen. If it does, I will eat my hat.


If that happens I will fly from Phoenix to Houston, stand outside on the sidewalk as the storm arrives, and get out a wicked electric guitar and sing a very evil version of "Let It Go" at the top of my lungs
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