2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[aspen]

Strong Mid level Circ and Good Low level Curvature. Wont take long to close off if convection maintains. that MLC is at 3N just as an FYI lol

https://i.ibb.co/CHB8Pds/LABELS-19700101-000000-87.gif

The longer this stays south (under 12-15N), the better chance this will have to develop and survive as a TC until it hits a wall of shear, assuming there is a wall of shear to meet it. It won’t arrive at the Lesser Antilles for another week, so a lot of things can change.

It can survive a little north of 10N by the time it gets to 45-50W, but that won’t be for another 5-7 days.

[Aric Dunn]

Strong Mid level Circ and Good Low level Curvature. Wont take long to close off if convection maintains. that MLC is at 3N just as an FYI lol

https://i.ibb.co/CHB8Pds/LABELS-19700101-000000-87.gif

The longer this stays south (under 12-15N), the better chance this will have to develop and survive as a TC until it hits a wall of shear, assuming there is a wall of shear to meet it. It won’t arrive at the Lesser Antilles for another week, so a lot of things can change.

It can survive a little north of 10N by the time it gets to 45-50W, but that won’t be for another 5-7 days.

11n is the most it can go until around 40 west.

and yeah shear is always changing so anyone saying it will meet its doom because of shear 7 plus days away, has not paid much attention to the tropics... things change, and models get it wrong many many many times..

[aspen]

Strong Mid level Circ and Good Low level Curvature. Wont take long to close off if convection maintains. that MLC is at 3N just as an FYI lol

https://i.ibb.co/CHB8Pds/LABELS-19700101-000000-87.gif

The longer this stays south (under 12-15N), the better chance this will have to develop and survive as a TC until it hits a wall of shear, assuming there is a wall of shear to meet it. It won’t arrive at the Lesser Antilles for another week, so a lot of things can change.

It can survive a little north of 10N by the time it gets to 45-50W, but that won’t be for another 5-7 days.

11n is the most it can go until around 40 west.

and yeah shear is always changing so anyone saying it will meet its doom because of shear 7 plus days away, has not paid much attention to the tropics... things change, and models get it wrong many many many times..

If this develops within the next 48-72 hours, wouldn’t it start to track further north?

[Aric Dunn]

The longer this stays south (under 12-15N), the better chance this will have to develop and survive as a TC until it hits a wall of shear, assuming there is a wall of shear to meet it. It won’t arrive at the Lesser Antilles for another week, so a lot of things can change.

It can survive a little north of 10N by the time it gets to 45-50W, but that won’t be for another 5-7 days.

11n is the most it can go until around 40 west.

and yeah shear is always changing so anyone saying it will meet its doom because of shear 7 plus days away, has not paid much attention to the tropics... things change, and models get it wrong many many many times..

If this develops within the next 48-72 hours, wouldn’t it start to track further north?

Ridging looks quite strong. how far NW it rotates north during the organizational phase will play a big role.

[BobHarlem]

Looks like this is now Invest 95L.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep it is Invest 95L

[Dean4Storms]

The ULL up near 26N 55W looks better this morning and think I see hints of an UL High. Don't think it should be slept on.

[cycloneye]

Invest 95L is up

[SoupBone]

Thank God the convection died .. lol don't know if I could stand reading another TWO at 10% on it.

Gonna be a long season, better get yourself together man! J/K

[HurricaneEnzo]

Tropical wave behind Elsa. Didn't see a thread for this wave. If there is one my apologies. Definitely a low rider but convection wise looking impressive this morning. If it can gain some latitude who knows might have a chance. Doesn't appear to have much in the way of model support though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yeah This wave is looking healthy. Wonder why nhc has nothing on it

[AlphaToOmega]

Yeah This wave is looking healthy. Wonder why nhc has nothing on it

No global model support as of yet

[CFLHurricane]

It certainly has “the look” on the MMIC-TPW. It probably just needs a couple more days to cook before the NHC serves it up with a slice of lemon.

[chaser1]

Present outflow is impressive and the system is further testament to how rich mid level humidity seemingly is throughout the MDR at this time. No SAL or high pressure capping occurring here. Now, will this disturbance be able to maintain persistent convection to the extent that low level convergence might begin to enhance a more southerly to SW'rly "feed"? Otherwise, we'll have to look for something apparent in the mid levels that might work toward the surface. Obviously models see neither which suggests the present appearance and convective activity might be very transient. Who knows.... perhaps the system's far south latitude might just be the key for it to trek westward a bit slower then and perhaps establish an increasing hint of cyclonic flow at some level. I'll say this much, just looking at the whole of the Atlantic MDR right now and shake their head. Even the wave over the E.
Caribbean (former 95L?) is looking a little interesting. One has to really wonder if tropical waves look as healthy as they do right now, what the heck will August look like

[CFLHurricane]

One has to really wonder if tropical waves look as healthy as they do right now, what the heck will August look like

Probably like a game of pinball on multi ball mode. Maybe we can get even more ridiculous than last year.

[aspen]

Yeah This wave is looking healthy. Wonder why nhc has nothing on it

No global model support as of yet

Either the models are right and there are challenges that will prevent this wave from becoming anything, or this is gonna be a sleeper wave that they take forever to pick up on.

[Stormybajan]

Yeah This wave is looking healthy. Wonder why nhc has nothing on it

No global model support as of yet

Either the models are right and there are challenges that will prevent this wave from becoming anything, or this is gonna be a sleeper wave that they take forever to pick up on.

I mean a couple days ago GFS [b]was[b] picking up on it near Trinidad or Grenada and has since backed off. I think the reason will be that most likely conditions in the MDR will probably revert to a more "normal" July with lots of trades and shear etc preventing this wave to develop but i'll still watch for any surprises

[tailgater]

All aboard, the wave train is well ahead of schedule.

[aspen]

The 12z GFS tries to develop this, and generates a brief TD. Not much but hey, it’s something.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Probably will see a yellow tagged on to this boy in my opinion. When a model smells it they tend to smack a banana on there.