2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1408068989897429007

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1408068989897429007?s=21

Based on Eric’s chart, it seems like the Atlantic could be in good shape for TC genesis in late July and early August. In mid July, the rising branch moves away from Africa while a sinking branch moves into the MDR, which doesn’t seem good for activity there. Seems like there’ll be sinking air in the EPac too.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1408068989897429007?s=21

Based on Eric’s chart, it seems like the Atlantic could be in good shape for TC genesis in late July and early August. In mid July, the rising branch moves away from Africa while a sinking branch moves into the MDR, which doesn’t seem good for activity there. Seems like there’ll be sinking air in the EPac too.

Those charts don't factor in random fast moving CCKWs though.
In regards to the EPAC:

CFS supports the EPS solution of a theoretical down period for the EPAC beginning in the first week of July. However if we look at past history in the EPAC (based on this CFS hovmoller), the basin has been responding well to intraseasonal passages in forms of -CCKWs, with frequent TCG since May despite modeled out suppressed periods.

https://i.imgur.com/4dkBSP3.png

[Kingarabian]

The most recent OISST update from www.Cyclonicwx.com shows the PDO continuing to warm.

[Kingarabian]

Still good EPS support for the western TW to develop briefly in the next 36-48 hours before it's absorbed by 95E.

[Kingarabian]

Not bad

[Kingarabian]

On the long range, next EPAC system is coming up on the CMC while the GFS recurves it back into CA to form some sort of CAG.



This is also in part of a -CCKW due around that time.

[Kingarabian]

12z/18z GFS and 12z CMC are developing a system in the far eastern Pacific in about 10 days. Long range EPS support is slowly increasing.

[Yellow Evan]

Northeast Pacific (East of 180°) 5 (2.2) 7.75 (7.2) 0 (0.9) 0.00 (2.1) 0 (0.3) 0.00 (0.4) 5.4 (10.2)

Enrique should bring us above average ACE wise even for a bit.

[Kingarabian]

Models keying in on another system in 8-12 days:

EPS(http://www.weathermodels.com) continues to show more members with development:

Up to 20 members past the 300 hour mark.

The low pressure system could start to take shape in about 8 days but could need another 3-4 days to actually form.

[Yellow Evan]

Unless this benefits from an intermediate CCKW (I haven’t checked), I wouldn’t expect much. GFS in particular loves to develop storms in the long range when the MJO is currently in the basin only to drop them once it departs and the intraseasonal background state becomes hospitable.

[Kingarabian]

Unless this benefits from an intermediate CCKW (I haven’t checked), I wouldn’t expect much. GFS in particular loves to develop storms in the long range when the MJO is currently in the basin only to drop them once it departs and the intraseasonal background state becomes hospitable.

There's a weak CCKW that the EPS-Control has analyzed near the dateline, and another analyzed by the CFS and EPS-Control over the MC/WPAC. It looks to be the latter that pushes east and opens the window for development.

[Kingarabian]

Models continue to show that there is potential for a system or two in the 7-12 day range with the time frame coming in.

12z GFS:


12z CMC:

[AlphaToOmega]

After Tropical Storm Enrique, I think the Eastern Pacific will become quite hostile for tropical development for a while. Sinking air is expected in the area the area throughout July and early August. What are the global models seeing?

[Kingarabian]

After Tropical Storm Enrique, I think the Eastern Pacific will become quite hostile for tropical development for a while. Sinking air is expected in the area the area throughout July and early August. What are the global models seeing?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dQ9yr834/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-fh168-1008-1.gif[url]

Probably another CCKW.

CFS supports the EPS solution of a theoretical down period for the EPAC beginning in the first week of July. However if we look at past history in the EPAC (based on this CFS hovmoller), the basin has been responding well to intraseasonal passages in forms of -CCKWs, with frequent TCG since May despite modeled out suppressed periods.

What's also possible is that the background state (which is usually seen in the averaged 90-120 day VP200 anomalies) is favorable for development despite what the intraseasonal signal is (the CFS you posted). So basically repeated robust disturbances and tropical waves crossovers, moving in from the Caribbean and into the EPAC will eventually find a pocket for development.

[BYG Jacob]

I'm grateful this season won't suck, Tucson really needs the rain

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1409641349968629769




Signal exists for a more active basin in late July.

[Kingarabian]

Doesn't really have any model support and I expect the NHC to ignore it, but this may try to consolidate and briefly spin up once it lifts NE.



Global's have backed off on any TC's in the next 10 days but their ensembles continue to sniff potential in the far eastern Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

TWO is empty for the first time since May 24.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro likes this area in 9-10 days: