2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stormybajan]

Can we not?????
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nczj0dcR/gfs-mslpa-atl-fh96-216.gif [/url]

Lol I saw that and instantly thought GFS is back to its own tricks. Most likely wont pan out this way ...but imagine if it did

[Steve]

Can we not????? https://i.postimg.cc/nczj0dcR/gfs-mslpa ... 96-216.gif

Lol I saw that and instantly thought GFS is back to its own tricks. Most likely wont pan out this way ...but imagine if it did

Except it’s like opposite of its old tricks where it always wanted to stick a trough off the EC. That run looks a lot like what highs did 2005 coming off the mid-Atlantic Coast except they weren’t as flat (oriented W to E).

[SFLcane]

EPS goes poof lol. Starting to think we may not see an MDR TC until August.

[weeniepatrol]

Lol! It's almost season cancel season

[SoupBone]

Can we not????? https://i.postimg.cc/nczj0dcR/gfs-mslpa ... 96-216.gif

Lol I saw that and instantly thought GFS is back to its own tricks. Most likely wont pan out this way ...but imagine if it did

Except it’s like opposite of its old tricks where it always wanted to stick a trough off the EC. That run looks a lot like what highs did 2005 coming off the mid-Atlantic Coast except they weren’t as flat (oriented W to E).

Is it sticking high pressure all along the east coast through Texas?

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah the latest GFS run is wild. It does not seem to really develop 95L but oh boy did it really love the wave behind it...

[N2FSU]

0z GFS


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[AlphaToOmega]

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gefs.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=000&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=384&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off
Many GEFS ensemble members want the tropical wave right after Invest 95L to develop into a hurricane. The worst part: this has happened before. If you remember this or this, you would know what I am talking about.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gefs.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=000&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=384&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off
Many GEFS ensemble members want the tropical wave right after Invest 95L to develop into a hurricane. The worst part: this has happened before. If you remember this or this, you would know what I am talking about.

While I cannot remember exactly why it was the case (and a pro met is probably a better source for this), but I think the reason why 2005 was able to produce those two nasty July hurricanes was because the Caribbean failed to act as the so-called "graveyard." I think it had to do with anomalously low wind shear and high instability, but 2005 was definitely very weird in that sense. Now I am not sure if such an event with July Cat 4+ storms will ever happen again, let alone that happening this year (I remember people saying that was going to happen last year, and nothing happened), but who knows? We'll just have to wait and find out, I suppose

[AlphaToOmega]

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gefs.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=000&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=384&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off
Many GEFS ensemble members want the tropical wave right after Invest 95L to develop into a hurricane. The worst part: this has happened before. If you remember this or this, you would know what I am talking about.

While I cannot remember exactly why it was the case (and a pro met is probably a better source for this), but I think the reason why 2005 was able to produce those two nasty July hurricanes was because the Caribbean failed to act as the so-called "graveyard." I think it had to do with anomalously low wind shear and high instability, but 2005 was definitely very weird in that sense. Now I am not sure if such an event with July Cat 4+ storms will ever happen again, let alone that happening this year (I remember people saying that was going to happen last year, and nothing happened), but who knows? We'll just have to wait and find out, I suppose

There was also this, this, and this, so I would not entirely count out them out.

[aspen]

Either the HWRF’s bust with Elsa is a fluke, or it’s a sign that the model might not be as reliable this year. Getting a storm’s structure wrong within a 12-24 hour time frame is a pretty bad error, and this is coming from a model that has done great with short-term forecasts for years.

[CyclonicFury]

Either the HWRF’s bust with Elsa is a fluke, or it’s a sign that the model might not be as reliable this year. Getting a storm’s structure wrong within a 12-24 hour time frame is a pretty bad error, and this is coming from a model that has done great with short-term forecasts for years.

The HWRF just seems to always underestimate the hostile conditions in the eastern Caribbean. It blew up Isaac in 2018 to a Category 5, and Gonzalo to a Category 3 last year. The HWRF seems to do a lot better in other parts of the basin.

[Cpv17]

It looks like the Euro has something in the Caribbean towards the end of its run. Also, the GEFS has a signal in the western Caribbean around the same time.

[captainbarbossa19]

It looks like the Euro has something in the Caribbean towards the end of its run. Also, the GEFS has a signal in the western Caribbean around the same time.

I see that wave on the 0z Euro. One thing that could be bad is if conditions are more favorable for development in the western part of the basin. If the MDR and eastern Caribbean are hostile for waves, watch out later this season. Also, the Euro is showing a lot of east coast ridging towards the end of the run. This is going to be a long season I fear.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wasn't July supposed to be suppressed? I remember people talking about how the end of July is when things should kick back into action while mid-July would be dead, but if the models are picking up on some suspicious activity mid-month then idk how much to believe that this month would be as inactive as once thought.

[AlphaToOmega]

There is something to watch in the Gulf Stream. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the ECMWF has the highest skill when it comes to tropical cyclones. The model shows what looks to be a tropical cyclone forming in the open Atlantic Ocean from a front boundary. Maybe the NHC will note it in its 8:00 PM TWO.

[Category5Kaiju]

6z GFS shows two Central America born systems that occur roughly a week apart. What the hell, Atlantic? I thought you were supposed to be in a suppressed MJO phase by then!

[AlphaToOmega]

We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania

[AxaltaRacing24]

We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_mslpa_nafr_19.png

Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_mslpa_nafr_19.png

Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it