AlphaToOmega wrote:Can we not?????
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nczj0dcR/gfs-mslpa-atl-fh96-216.gif [/url]
Lol I saw that and instantly thought GFS is back to its own tricks. Most likely wont pan out this way ...but imagine if it did

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AlphaToOmega wrote:Can we not?????
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nczj0dcR/gfs-mslpa-atl-fh96-216.gif [/url]
Stormybajan wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:Can we not????? https://i.postimg.cc/nczj0dcR/gfs-mslpa ... 96-216.gif
Lol I saw that and instantly thought GFS is back to its own tricks. Most likely wont pan out this way ...but imagine if it did
Steve wrote:Stormybajan wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:Can we not????? https://i.postimg.cc/nczj0dcR/gfs-mslpa ... 96-216.gif
Lol I saw that and instantly thought GFS is back to its own tricks. Most likely wont pan out this way ...but imagine if it did
Except it’s like opposite of its old tricks where it always wanted to stick a trough off the EC. That run looks a lot like what highs did 2005 coming off the mid-Atlantic Coast except they weren’t as flat (oriented W to E).
AlphaToOmega wrote:https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gefs.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=000&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=384&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off
Many GEFS ensemble members want the tropical wave right after Invest 95L to develop into a hurricane. The worst part: this has happened before. If you remember this or this, you would know what I am talking about.
Category5Kaiju wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gefs.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=000&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=384&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off
Many GEFS ensemble members want the tropical wave right after Invest 95L to develop into a hurricane. The worst part: this has happened before. If you remember this or this, you would know what I am talking about.
While I cannot remember exactly why it was the case (and a pro met is probably a better source for this), but I think the reason why 2005 was able to produce those two nasty July hurricanes was because the Caribbean failed to act as the so-called "graveyard." I think it had to do with anomalously low wind shear and high instability, but 2005 was definitely very weird in that sense. Now I am not sure if such an event with July Cat 4+ storms will ever happen again, let alone that happening this year (I remember people saying that was going to happen last year, and nothing happened), but who knows? We'll just have to wait and find out, I suppose
aspen wrote:Either the HWRF’s bust with Elsa is a fluke, or it’s a sign that the model might not be as reliable this year. Getting a storm’s structure wrong within a 12-24 hour time frame is a pretty bad error, and this is coming from a model that has done great with short-term forecasts for years.
Cpv17 wrote:It looks like the Euro has something in the Caribbean towards the end of its run. Also, the GEFS has a signal in the western Caribbean around the same time.
AlphaToOmega wrote:We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_mslpa_nafr_19.png
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_mslpa_nafr_19.png
Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...
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