ATL: ELSA - Models

[SFLcane]

What's in the steering pattern that the models are seeing right now that takes 97 so sharply N and E into FL?

Trof digs and weakens ridge opening the door for this to gain latitude and head north.

[toad strangler]

What's in the steering pattern that the models are seeing right now that takes 97 so sharply N and E into FL?

Trof digs and weakens ridge opening the door for this to gain latitude and head north.

Usually that saves the CONUS, but every once in awhile they get too far W before that climo re-curve happens..

[Cat5James]

HWRF stronger thru 48 hours

[AubreyStorm]

HWRF stronger thru 48 hours

And more North than previous run

[Blown Away]

St. Lucia could be looking at an @87 mph hurricane in 54-57 hours...

[AutoPenalti]

Something to think about as well, the stronger this becomes, the more likely this could pull north and either graze the islands or completely disrupt its core as it landfalls in Hispanola.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Bit slower and NE of previous runs... Almost Cat 3 in 72 hours...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro is significantly underestimating the short-term development of 97L and has consistently been playing catch-up. 12z Euro initialization is significantly stronger vs 24 hours ago.

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF... Bit slower and NE of previous runs... Almost Cat 3 in 72 hours...

Wowza!

[Nuno]

Euro is significantly underestimating the short-term development of 97L and has consistently been playing catch-up. 12z Euro initialization is significantly stronger vs 24 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/bbMEIDh.png

So like usual? :p

[Cat5James]

Both HMON and HWRF are trending significantly stronger

[Blown Away]

Uh oh! Here comes the 12z Euro...

[SFLcane]

What happened to this model lol..

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1410293956122918915

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro is significantly underestimating the short-term development of 97L and has consistently been playing catch-up. 12z Euro initialization is significantly stronger vs 24 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/bbMEIDh.png

So, like the normal Euro since 2020?

[kevin]

HWRF again very strong with a MH.

[Blown Away]

HWRF again very strong with a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/5FjKMt8.png

At that point, almost 1.5 degrees ENE/Slower than previous run.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF again very strong with a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/5FjKMt8.png

Threading the needle.

[Shell Mound]

The 12Z ECMWF shows 97L steadily deepening through forty-eight hours, even as it shows the system crossing the Lesser Antilles. Big shift toward GFS/HWRF.

[Steve]

Something to think about as well, the stronger this becomes, the more likely this could pull north and either graze the islands or completely disrupt its core as it landfalls in Hispanola.

Maybe. 500mb shows it travelling around the periphery of high pressure. No matter how strong it got, it's not going to go through the heart of that. It has to go around. However, GFS continues to pulse the high so a Charley type hook back doesn't look that likely based on what it seems to be indicating is going to happen. You'd expect more of a hit toward the central Panhandle than on the SW Coast. What gives it its eastern component is a shortwave back by Missouri. That's not really the configuration for that directional movement it's showing. Of course landfall interaction can pull it in as well which I'm not discounting. I'm just not sure that GFS is super realistic for a week out. It might be close though.

Here's the 500 at Hour 162 (1 am CDT next Wednesday). You can run the forward from there and see the upper pattern's evolution.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=162

[Blown Away]

12z Euro on board developing 97L quickly...