ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it's taken on a CCC:
https://i.imgur.com/n9NzQv6.jpg

What is CCC?

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0.co_2.xml

Basically a shapeless blob of very cold convection with little to no rainbands and no well-defined inner core features. Very common in mid-level shear environments.

[captainbarbossa19]

Coming into range of the Barbados radar and uh, this is pretty sus:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/860377047536500756/OsCyFoUjtCEAAAAASUVORK5CYII.png
Granted I'd like for it to come closer in order to make sure it is what I think it is...

Is that...a nascent inner core?

What we are seeing on radar is definitely near where the deepest convection is on satellite. The mid-level circulation is present there. Since the beam is so high at that distance, it is too hard to tell if the LLC is stacked too.

[Category5Kaiju]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=-1

As of recently the mid level shear around Elsa looks to be not that bad?

[StPeteMike]

If the HWRF is still accurate with short term modeling, midday seems to be the time that Elsa starts getting her act together.

[Aric Dunn]

no CCC

[Shell Mound]

If the HWRF is still accurate with short term modeling, midday seems to be the time that Elsa starts getting her act together.

From the NHC’s 03:00 UTC discussion:

While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the
current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong
east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting
in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This
mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping
around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level
vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past
day.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1410823563624464386

[Aric Dunn]

If the HWRF is still accurate with short term modeling, midday seems to be the time that Elsa starts getting her act together.

From the NHC’s 03:00 UTC discussion:

While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the
current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong
east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting
in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This
mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping
around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level
vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past
day.

but it has wrapped around/pulled .. problem solved.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Just want to make a point here..

there will be a pulse down ( I mentioned earlier about the pulse up). This pulse down will not mean its weakening. It is actually a process that occurs everytime with every tropical system that begins to deepen..

details are not needed.. just keep it in mind.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the center was not that huge hole at a distance.. its actually quite compact.. as seen below.. stay awake barbados.. likely not going to be 50mph..

[chaser1]

I see an inner core becoming better established. I'd project min. pressure to be around 998mb.

[Shell Mound]

Also the center was not that huge hole at a distance.. its actually quite compact.. as seen below.. stay awake barbados.. likely not going to be 50mph..

https://i.ibb.co/D1zK2cx/9.gif

https://i.ibb.co/z4V6BF0/Capture.png

Honestly, I wish proper reconnaissance were available in time for the 15:00Z advisory-package, given current trends and proximity to Barbados and other islands.

Nevertheless, Elsa still appears to be sheared. Note the absence of robust convection in the southwestern quadrant. This is quite evident in the radar imagery.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Also the center was not that huge hole at a distance.. its actually quite compact.. as seen below.. stay awake barbados.. likely not going to be 50mph..

https://i.ibb.co/D1zK2cx/9.gif

https://i.ibb.co/z4V6BF0/Capture.png

Honestly, I wish proper reconnaissance were available in time for the 15:00Z advisory-package, given current trends and proximity to Barbados and other islands.

Nevertheless, Elsa still appears to be sheared. Note the absence of robust convection in the southwestern quadrant. This is quite evident in the radar imagery.

I mean, there's probably still some tilt, but the NHC has the center inside the convection.

[Shell Mound]

Also the center was not that huge hole at a distance.. its actually quite compact.. as seen below.. stay awake barbados.. likely not going to be 50mph..

https://i.ibb.co/D1zK2cx/9.gif

https://i.ibb.co/z4V6BF0/Capture.png

Honestly, I wish proper reconnaissance were available in time for the 15:00Z advisory-package, given current trends and proximity to Barbados and other islands.

Nevertheless, Elsa still appears to be sheared. Note the absence of robust convection in the southwestern quadrant. This is quite evident in the radar imagery.

I mean, there's probably still some tilt, but the NHC has the center inside the convection.

I sound like a broken record, but I still think that the ECMWF’s weaker, eastern solutions vs. other models will be vindicated. While Elsa may seem to be getting much better organised, structurally it is still quite tilted due to its rapid forward motion. The formation of outer “appendages” in the southeastern quadrant, combined with somewhat restricted outflow to the northwest, is suggestive of continued easterly shear. Convection is merely propagating along the shear-axis, not necessarily consolidating, though a formative mid-level “eye” (weak echo region) is evident on radar. Yet the LLC and the MLC is clearly not stacked properly as of now, so satellite and radar suggest more deepening has occurred than has actually taken place.

[weeniepatrol]

yikes

[Sciencerocks]

[weeniepatrol]

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/4SbwI1l.gif

yikes

Yup. Now the core can start to build although its still probably tilted some.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1410711674005360643



 https://twitter.com/JeremychengZhi/status/1410714245092679680



 https://twitter.com/JeremychengZhi/status/1410716429586886659

[Kingarabian]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic