AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Shell Mound wrote:Honestly, I wish proper reconnaissance were available in time for the 15:00Z advisory-package, given current trends and proximity to Barbados and other islands.
Nevertheless, Elsa still appears to be sheared. Note the absence of robust convection in the southwestern quadrant. This is quite evident in the radar imagery.
I mean, there's probably still some tilt, but the NHC has the center inside the convection.
I sound like a broken record, but I still think that the ECMWF’s weaker, eastern solutions vs. other models will be vindicated. While Elsa may seem to be getting much better organised, structurally it is still quite tilted due to its rapid forward motion. The formation of outer “appendages” in the southeastern quadrant, combined with somewhat restricted outflow to the northwest, is suggestive of continued easterly shear. Convection is merely propagating along the shear-axis, not necessarily consolidating, though a formative mid-level “eye” (weak echo region) is evident on radar. Yet the LLC and the MLC is clearly not stacked properly as of now, so satellite and radar suggest more deepening has occurred than has actually taken place.