ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1021 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:41 am

Grantley Adams Int'l Airport in Barbados already reporting winds gusting to 57 mph with one of the squalls cominng through.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 020911Z 06027G50KT 2000 +SHRA FEW010CB BKN012 BKN034 24/20 Q1009 NOSIG
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 78%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.79 inches Hg (1009.0 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 31 MPH (27 knots; 13.9 m/s) gusting to 57 MPH (50 knots; 25.7 m/s)
Visibility: 1.24 sm ( 2.00 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3400 feet AGL
Weather: +SHRA (heavy rain showers)
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1022 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:10 am

Some dry air got into it the SW quadrant as seen on radar.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1023 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:16 am

NDG wrote:Some dry air got into it the SW quadrant as seen on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/Z6li2Yu.gif

There’s a new burst of convection firing there, so it doesn’t seem to be too much of an issue.

Elsa already has a partial eyewall. Maybe it’s closer to hurricane status than we thought.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1024 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:20 am

aspen wrote:
NDG wrote:Some dry air got into it the SW quadrant as seen on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/Z6li2Yu.gif

There’s a new burst of convection firing there, so it doesn’t seem to be too much of an issue.

Elsa already has a partial eyewall. Maybe it’s closer to hurricane status than we thought.


Due to its fast forward speed I would not doubt if the recon at least finds winds close to hurricane force if not actual Cat 1 on the northern quadrant.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1025 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:26 am

One thing different this morning is that it has outflows in all quadrants now.
Deep convection refiring near its LLC this morning.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1026 Postby Chemmers » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:28 am

I am surprised NHC hasn’t issued hurricane warnings yet, Especially if they go thought the right Front quadrant with Elsa forward speed
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1027 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:33 am

Barbados doesn't usually get a lot of 50 knot winds,hopefully their power lines are clear of tree branches. Other than power outages the fast forward speed will help reduce flooding.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1028 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:38 am

That northern eyewall like feature is heading straight for Barbados, based on radar.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1029 Postby Stormybajan » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:39 am

Recon is so far behind im not sure it will matter much to Barbados...will mostly help the rest of the windwards. Good thing its moving so fast if this was going lets say 19 mph most likely wouldve been a Hurricane by now
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1030 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:43 am

I seriously hope the NHC does not rely on SFMR for Elsa
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1031 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:45 am

Wouldn't be surprised if there is hurricane force gusts in that eyeball band.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1032 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:45 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Jr0d wrote:Unfortunately because of the long flight, the Recon mission will only be in the storm for maybe two passes before it needs to head back for fuel...this may prevent it from sampling the strongest part of Elsa.

Why weren’t aircraft stationed at St. Croix for this mission? Considering the threat to land I find the decision to fly from Tampa vs. St. Croix a bit...odd.

Barbados will likely experience a strengthening hurricane and not even watches have been posted yet. I think this situation was handled a bit poorly.

https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1410892470234320898
https://i.postimg.cc/DzpXH1V7/Elsa2021-1.png
The mesoscale vortex inside the formative eye indicates steady deepening. Unfortunately Barbados was not adequately warned of a potential hurricane.


That is NOT a MESO VORT..

That is an eyewall..
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1033 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:48 am

That eyewall like feature hasn't even gotten to Barbados, airport already reporting winds gusting to 60 mph, pressure down to 1006mb.
With winds from the east is telling me the LLC will be passing just to the south of them.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021029Z 08035G52KT 2000 SHRA SCT010CB BKN012 BKN032 25/20 Q1006 NOSIG
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 74%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.70 inches Hg (1006.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (80 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.0 m/s) gusting to 60 MPH (52 knots; 26.7 m/s)

Visibility: 1.24 sm ( 2.00 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3200 feet AGL
Weather: SHRA (rain showers)
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1034 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:58 am

So far it has been a classic ramp up to a hurricane. pulse down.. has mid level circ stacks .. now pulsing back up and little hints of warm spots on satellite..
luckily us (not for Barbados who should have had hurricane watch/warnings) we have radar to confirm the eyewall development.

seems to have slowed , outlow is great, and looks primed to possibly RI..


HWRF nailing this.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1035 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:11 am

Aric Dunn wrote:So far it has been a classic ramp up to a hurricane. pulse down.. has mid level circ stacks .. now pulsing back up and little hints of warm spots on satellite..
luckily us ( not for Barbados who should have had hurricane watch/warnings) we have radar to confirm the eyewall development.

seems to have slowed , outlow is great, and looks primed to possibly RI..


HWRF nailing this.

The HWRF has absolutely nailed this. The first thought when I saw its IR presentation when I woke up was “that looks exactly like what one of the HWRF runs showed for this time”.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1036 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:11 am

Here we go, hurricane force wind gusts over Barbados right now.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021100Z 09050G67KT 3000 SHRA SCT010CB BKN012 BKN034 25/20 Q1005 NOSIG
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 74%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.68 inches Hg (1005.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 57 MPH (50 knots; 25.7 m/s) gusting to 77 MPH (67 knots; 34.5 m/s)

Visibility: 1.86 sm ( 2.99 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3400 feet AGL
Weather: SHRA (rain showers)
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1037 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:15 am

NDG wrote:Here we go, hurricane force wind gusts over Barbados right now.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021100Z 09050G67KT 3000 SHRA SCT010CB BKN012 BKN034 25/20 Q1005 NOSIG
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 74%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.68 inches Hg (1005.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 57 MPH (50 knots; 25.7 m/s) gusting to 77 MPH (67 knots; 34.5 m/s)

Visibility: 1.86 sm ( 2.99 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3400 feet AGL
Weather: SHRA (rain showers)


which means the eyewall to the south very likely has hurricane sustained..

they need to do a quick upgrade. too late for Barbados but the other islands could use a little warning lol
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1038 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:19 am

Elsa appears to be at the exact position forecast by the 00z HWRF, which had it thread the gap between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1039 Postby Chemmers » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:22 am

Pink cloud tops again rotating around the centre, defo think it has hit hurricane. Even the weather channel expert has just said Elsa is stronger then we think
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1040 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:24 am

HWRF proves again it seems to be the best intensity model we have. Nailed the overnight intensification.
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