ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Grantley Adams Int'l Airport in Barbados already reporting winds gusting to 57 mph with one of the squalls cominng through.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 020911Z 06027G50KT 2000 +SHRA FEW010CB BKN012 BKN034 24/20 Q1009 NOSIG
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 78%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.79 inches Hg (1009.0 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 31 MPH (27 knots; 13.9 m/s) gusting to 57 MPH (50 knots; 25.7 m/s)
Visibility: 1.24 sm ( 2.00 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3400 feet AGL
Weather: +SHRA (heavy rain showers)

[NDG]

Some dry air got into it the SW quadrant as seen on radar.

[aspen]

Some dry air got into it the SW quadrant as seen on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/Z6li2Yu.gif

There’s a new burst of convection firing there, so it doesn’t seem to be too much of an issue.

Elsa already has a partial eyewall. Maybe it’s closer to hurricane status than we thought.

[NDG]

Some dry air got into it the SW quadrant as seen on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/Z6li2Yu.gif

There’s a new burst of convection firing there, so it doesn’t seem to be too much of an issue.

Elsa already has a partial eyewall. Maybe it’s closer to hurricane status than we thought.

Due to its fast forward speed I would not doubt if the recon at least finds winds close to hurricane force if not actual Cat 1 on the northern quadrant.

[NDG]

One thing different this morning is that it has outflows in all quadrants now.
Deep convection refiring near its LLC this morning.

[Chemmers]

I am surprised NHC hasn’t issued hurricane warnings yet, Especially if they go thought the right Front quadrant with Elsa forward speed

[Nimbus]

Barbados doesn't usually get a lot of 50 knot winds,hopefully their power lines are clear of tree branches. Other than power outages the fast forward speed will help reduce flooding.

[NDG]

That northern eyewall like feature is heading straight for Barbados, based on radar.

[Stormybajan]

Recon is so far behind im not sure it will matter much to Barbados...will mostly help the rest of the windwards. Good thing its moving so fast if this was going lets say 19 mph most likely wouldve been a Hurricane by now

[AlphaToOmega]

I seriously hope the NHC does not rely on SFMR for Elsa

[AdamFirst]

Wouldn't be surprised if there is hurricane force gusts in that eyeball band.

[Aric Dunn]

Unfortunately because of the long flight, the Recon mission will only be in the storm for maybe two passes before it needs to head back for fuel...this may prevent it from sampling the strongest part of Elsa.

Why weren’t aircraft stationed at St. Croix for this mission? Considering the threat to land I find the decision to fly from Tampa vs. St. Croix a bit...odd.

Barbados will likely experience a strengthening hurricane and not even watches have been posted yet. I think this situation was handled a bit poorly.

https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1410892470234320898
https://i.postimg.cc/DzpXH1V7/Elsa2021-1.png
The mesoscale vortex inside the formative eye indicates steady deepening. Unfortunately Barbados was not adequately warned of a potential hurricane.

That is NOT a MESO VORT..

That is an eyewall..

[NDG]

That eyewall like feature hasn't even gotten to Barbados, airport already reporting winds gusting to 60 mph, pressure down to 1006mb.
With winds from the east is telling me the LLC will be passing just to the south of them.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021029Z 08035G52KT 2000 SHRA SCT010CB BKN012 BKN032 25/20 Q1006 NOSIG
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 74%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.70 inches Hg (1006.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (80 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.0 m/s) gusting to 60 MPH (52 knots; 26.7 m/s)
Visibility: 1.24 sm ( 2.00 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3200 feet AGL
Weather: SHRA (rain showers)

[Aric Dunn]

So far it has been a classic ramp up to a hurricane. pulse down.. has mid level circ stacks .. now pulsing back up and little hints of warm spots on satellite..
luckily us (not for Barbados who should have had hurricane watch/warnings) we have radar to confirm the eyewall development.

seems to have slowed , outlow is great, and looks primed to possibly RI..


HWRF nailing this.

[aspen]

So far it has been a classic ramp up to a hurricane. pulse down.. has mid level circ stacks .. now pulsing back up and little hints of warm spots on satellite..
luckily us ( not for Barbados who should have had hurricane watch/warnings) we have radar to confirm the eyewall development.

seems to have slowed , outlow is great, and looks primed to possibly RI..


HWRF nailing this.

The HWRF has absolutely nailed this. The first thought when I saw its IR presentation when I woke up was “that looks exactly like what one of the HWRF runs showed for this time”.

[NDG]

Here we go, hurricane force wind gusts over Barbados right now.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021100Z 09050G67KT 3000 SHRA SCT010CB BKN012 BKN034 25/20 Q1005 NOSIG
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 74%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.68 inches Hg (1005.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 57 MPH (50 knots; 25.7 m/s) gusting to 77 MPH (67 knots; 34.5 m/s)
Visibility: 1.86 sm ( 2.99 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3400 feet AGL
Weather: SHRA (rain showers)

[Aric Dunn]

Here we go, hurricane force wind gusts over Barbados right now.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021100Z 09050G67KT 3000 SHRA SCT010CB BKN012 BKN034 25/20 Q1005 NOSIG
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 74%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.68 inches Hg (1005.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 57 MPH (50 knots; 25.7 m/s) gusting to 77 MPH (67 knots; 34.5 m/s)
Visibility: 1.86 sm ( 2.99 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3400 feet AGL
Weather: SHRA (rain showers)

which means the eyewall to the south very likely has hurricane sustained..

they need to do a quick upgrade. too late for Barbados but the other islands could use a little warning lol

[aspen]

Elsa appears to be at the exact position forecast by the 00z HWRF, which had it thread the gap between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba.

[Chemmers]

Pink cloud tops again rotating around the centre, defo think it has hit hurricane. Even the weather channel expert has just said Elsa is stronger then we think

[HurricaneEnzo]

HWRF proves again it seems to be the best intensity model we have. Nailed the overnight intensification.