ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

116 knot SMFR, gotta be flagged or a Mesovortices

Very erroneous. Discount that reading. Plane was over Dominica at that time so SFMR was contaminated.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa be confusing. Elsa be fast. Elsa want cat 4. Elsa let it go.

[wx98]

116 knot SMFR, gotta be flagged or a Mesovortices

Mesovortices that far out?

Doubt it would be, just a bad reading. Way out of line with all other readings from that string

[skyline385]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

[Category5Kaiju]

While I think in the grand scheme of things it would not really be a major issue, I really hope people who are in the danger zones pay attention and take this storm seriously instead of joking around about the name "Elsa" and thinking that this storm is "cute" as a result, I do feel that that could easily lead to a handful on individuals who really land themselves in a perilous spot.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Something to consider is that Elsa may have taller cloud tops than indicated because it’s July with a warmer atmosphere instead of the usual late august or September.

[StormPyrate]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Where do you find satellite with track overlay, I miss this since the old floaters are gone

[NDG]

12z HWRF

[Nimbus]

Look at delta. The smallest amount of shear ripped the core to pieces.

I would argue that Delta's core was so small and intense that it lacked an element of structural stability, making even a small "push" in a suboptimal direction potentially enough to disrupt it

exactly. A bigger core has much more stable convection that takes more shear to dislodge enough to cause weakening, however larger cores do not usually intensify as fast as small cores.

Hurricane Andrew was another fast moving hurricane with a pin hole eye.
Stable high speed winds in a small core seem to resist dry air intrusion.
The velocity of the moist air exiting the eye in the upper atmosphere is higher with a small eyed storm although it could be argued that a large volume of moist air from a large well established hurricane might hold off shear better I don't think Elsa is going to cave like the weak system the Euro was forecasting.

[Ken711]

12z HWRF

Is it further South and West of previous run?

[eastcoastFL]

While I think in the grand scheme of things it would not really be a major issue, I really hope people who are in the danger zones pay attention and take this storm seriously instead of joking around about the name "Elsa" and thinking that this storm is "cute" as a result, I do feel that that could easily lead to a handful on individuals who really land themselves in a perilous spot.

I would hope nobody thinks a hurricane is “cute”. This storm is heading for areas where we all have experience with hurricanes and know there’s nothing cute about them.

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF

Is it further South and West of previous run?

Yup. Dodging every island and cruising west south of Cuba

[Ian2401]

12z HWRF

Is it further South and West of previous run?

Yup. Dodging every island and cruising west south of Cuba

further south not west. actually a touch more east than 06z, but may be due to it just forecasting a slightly slower motion (?)

[skyline385]

I would argue that Delta's core was so small and intense that it lacked an element of structural stability, making even a small "push" in a suboptimal direction potentially enough to disrupt it

exactly. A bigger core has much more stable convection that takes more shear to dislodge enough to cause weakening, however larger cores do not usually intensify as fast as small cores.

Hurricane Andrew was another fast moving hurricane with a pin hole eye.
Stable high speed winds in a small core seem to resist dry air intrusion.
The velocity of the moist air exiting the eye in the upper atmosphere is higher with a small eyed storm although it could be argued that a large volume of moist air from a large well established hurricane might hold off shear better I don't think Elsa is going to cave like the weak system the Euro was forecasting.

Small hurricanes like Dorian and Andrew find it very easy to ramp up and down. Delta was pretty big overall with a small core so that would make it difficult for the core to stabilize again after being sheared off.

[wxman57]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

[aspen]

12z HWRF

Oh boy, that’s a borderline Cat 4. Peak intensity is heavily dependent on whether or not the threads the gap between the Greater Antilles, and that’s a very small target for a fast-moving storm to go through.

[Nuno]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

hwrf consistently nails storm structure 24-48 hrs out though. Elsa continues to be stronger than models are initializing and forecasting for short term

[AlphaToOmega]

Wind shear in the Caribbean is forecasted to be low, and sea surface temperatures are more than enough to support a hurricane. What matters is the path Hurricane Elsa takes. If it goes over Hispaniola, the rough terrain should be enough to tear the storm apart. If it goes over Cuba, the rough terrain should be enough to weaken the storm significantly, but it will likely not dissipate over Cuba. If it dodges the islands, it would have no trouble intensifying into a major hurricane, possibly a Category V.

[InfernoFlameCat]

While off on position, the satellite presentation on the hwrf is right on from a few frames earlier of the storm

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

Maybe, but it's done a significantly better job so far than the global models.