ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1381 Postby wx98 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:22 pm

cjrciadt wrote:116 knot SMFR, gotta be flagged or a Mesovortices :double:

Very erroneous. Discount that reading. Plane was over Dominica at that time so SFMR was contaminated.
Last edited by wx98 on Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1382 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:22 pm

Elsa be confusing. Elsa be fast. Elsa want cat 4. Elsa let it go.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1383 Postby wx98 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:22 pm

skyline385 wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:116 knot SMFR, gotta be flagged or a Mesovortices :double:


Mesovortices that far out?

Doubt it would be, just a bad reading. Way out of line with all other readings from that string
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1384 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:28 pm

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1385 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:28 pm

While I think in the grand scheme of things it would not really be a major issue, I really hope people who are in the danger zones pay attention and take this storm seriously instead of joking around about the name "Elsa" and thinking that this storm is "cute" as a result, I do feel that that could easily lead to a handful on individuals who really land themselves in a perilous spot. :(
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1386 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:28 pm

Something to consider is that Elsa may have taller cloud tops than indicated because it’s July with a warmer atmosphere instead of the usual late august or September.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1387 Postby StormPyrate » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:30 pm


Where do you find satellite with track overlay, I miss this since the old floaters are gone
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1388 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:31 pm

12z HWRF :eek:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1389 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:34 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Look at delta. The smallest amount of shear ripped the core to pieces.


I would argue that Delta's core was so small and intense that it lacked an element of structural stability, making even a small "push" in a suboptimal direction potentially enough to disrupt it
exactly. A bigger core has much more stable convection that takes more shear to dislodge enough to cause weakening, however larger cores do not usually intensify as fast as small cores.


Hurricane Andrew was another fast moving hurricane with a pin hole eye.
Stable high speed winds in a small core seem to resist dry air intrusion.
The velocity of the moist air exiting the eye in the upper atmosphere is higher with a small eyed storm although it could be argued that a large volume of moist air from a large well established hurricane might hold off shear better I don't think Elsa is going to cave like the weak system the Euro was forecasting.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1390 Postby Ken711 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:36 pm

NDG wrote:12z HWRF :eek:


Is it further South and West of previous run?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1391 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:37 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:While I think in the grand scheme of things it would not really be a major issue, I really hope people who are in the danger zones pay attention and take this storm seriously instead of joking around about the name "Elsa" and thinking that this storm is "cute" as a result, I do feel that that could easily lead to a handful on individuals who really land themselves in a perilous spot. :(


I would hope nobody thinks a hurricane is “cute”. This storm is heading for areas where we all have experience with hurricanes and know there’s nothing cute about them.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1392 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:37 pm

Ken711 wrote:
NDG wrote:12z HWRF :eek:


Is it further South and West of previous run?


Yup. Dodging every island and cruising west south of Cuba
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1393 Postby Ian2401 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:39 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
NDG wrote:12z HWRF :eek:


Is it further South and West of previous run?


Yup. Dodging every island and cruising west south of Cuba

further south not west. actually a touch more east than 06z, but may be due to it just forecasting a slightly slower motion (?)
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1394 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:39 pm

Nimbus wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:
I would argue that Delta's core was so small and intense that it lacked an element of structural stability, making even a small "push" in a suboptimal direction potentially enough to disrupt it
exactly. A bigger core has much more stable convection that takes more shear to dislodge enough to cause weakening, however larger cores do not usually intensify as fast as small cores.


Hurricane Andrew was another fast moving hurricane with a pin hole eye.
Stable high speed winds in a small core seem to resist dry air intrusion.
The velocity of the moist air exiting the eye in the upper atmosphere is higher with a small eyed storm although it could be argued that a large volume of moist air from a large well established hurricane might hold off shear better I don't think Elsa is going to cave like the weak system the Euro was forecasting.


Small hurricanes like Dorian and Andrew find it very easy to ramp up and down. Delta was pretty big overall with a small core so that would make it difficult for the core to stabilize again after being sheared off.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1395 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:40 pm

skyline385 wrote:Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization


I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1396 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:41 pm

NDG wrote:12z HWRF :eek:

Oh boy, that’s a borderline Cat 4. Peak intensity is heavily dependent on whether or not the threads the gap between the Greater Antilles, and that’s a very small target for a fast-moving storm to go through.
Last edited by aspen on Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1397 Postby Nuno » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization


I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.


hwrf consistently nails storm structure 24-48 hrs out though. Elsa continues to be stronger than models are initializing and forecasting for short term
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1398 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:42 pm

Wind shear in the Caribbean is forecasted to be low, and sea surface temperatures are more than enough to support a hurricane. What matters is the path Hurricane Elsa takes. If it goes over Hispaniola, the rough terrain should be enough to tear the storm apart. If it goes over Cuba, the rough terrain should be enough to weaken the storm significantly, but it will likely not dissipate over Cuba. If it dodges the islands, it would have no trouble intensifying into a major hurricane, possibly a Category V.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1399 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:42 pm

While off on position, the satellite presentation on the hwrf is right on from a few frames earlier of the storm
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1400 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization


I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.


Maybe, but it's done a significantly better job so far than the global models.
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