ATL: ELSA - Models

[Nuno]

GFS initialized too weak again. Not sure if it matters or not. If Elsa continues to overperform this may lead to some re-evaluation of recon input, especially if that input is suspect. I don't know if this is the issue or not though, just speculating.

What would cause recon to suddenly have input or data issues over this two-season span? It doesn't make sense but something is up

[tolakram]

GFS initialized too weak again. Not sure if it matters or not. If Elsa continues to overperform this may lead to some re-evaluation of recon input, especially if that input is suspect. I don't know if this is the issue or not though, just speculating.

What would cause recon to suddenly have input or data issues over this two-season span? It doesn't make sense but something is up

What do you mean. This is the only instance that I know of, the first recon mission missing the center, and I don't know if it actually had any effect on the GFS or not. That's why it's just speculation right now.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS Similar track, much weaker, and initialized too weak.

[OuterBanker]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps_docs/codta/2021/tc/05L/2021070212/2021070212.000_track_g1.gif

But, no worries. It's the Navy model. Never followed here.

It makes the Canadian look good.

[Cat5James]

HMON initialized stronger

[Jr0d]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps_docs/codta/2021/tc/05L/2021070212/2021070212.000_track_g1.gif

But, no worries. It's the Navy model. Never followed here.

It makes the Canadian look good.

Sometime a blind squirrel can find a nut...but I have never seen the Navy model pick up something the others did not see

[aspen]

18z HWRF might be heading towards a Haiti landfall.

[toad strangler]

18z HWRF might be heading towards a Haiti landfall.

ahhhh the Euro could get everything pre Hispaniola wrong except afterwards

[AxaltaRacing24]

18z HWRF might be heading towards a Haiti landfall.

ahhhh the Euro could get everything pre Hispaniola wrong except afterwards

3D chess. A solution so incorrect, that it ends up being accurate.

[Blown Away]

18Z HWRF 33 Hours... Half a degree N of 12z and at @111 mph!

[aspen]

Missed landfall in Haiti, but only by a hair. A clear N shift from last run, but with Elsa’s center reforming, this track might be rendered irrelevant.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF about to clip the SE mountains of Cuba.

[aspen]

HWRF about to clip the SE mountains of Cuba.

Pretty much like “if I’m gonna die over Cuba, I’m gonna go out like a champ”.

Peaks as a borderline Cat 4 before landfall on this run. The HWRF is very insistent that if Elsa misses Haiti, it could go bonkers.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF about to clip the SE mountains of Cuba.

Pretty much like “if I’m gonna die over Cuba, I’m gonna go out like a champ”.

Peaks as a borderline Cat 4 before landfall on this run. The HWRF is very insistent that if Elsa misses Haiti, it could go bonkers.

Actually it clipped the heel of Cuba.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I know there's a lot of doubt with regard to the HWRF's scenario, but it does seem plausible to me if Elsa can avoid slamming into the islands. TCHP is very, very plentiful of Jamaica. Elsa will be slowing down significantly too.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... @72 hrs huge NE shift with Elsa N of Cuba heading for Key West as Cat 1...

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF 87 hrs... Landfall Key West @Cat 1 heading NNW towards Naples strengthening near 85 mph...

[robbielyn]

goes inland in naples ft meyers

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF 90 hrs... 2nd Landfall in Florida at Ft Myers winds @90 mph... Moving N and beginning to recurve NE, @100 mile E shift from 12z at this point.

[AutoPenalti]

Shift back east again...