ATL: ELSA - Models

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#641 Postby Nuno » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:08 pm

tolakram wrote:GFS initialized too weak again. Not sure if it matters or not. If Elsa continues to overperform this may lead to some re-evaluation of recon input, especially if that input is suspect. I don't know if this is the issue or not though, just speculating.


What would cause recon to suddenly have input or data issues over this two-season span? It doesn't make sense but something is up
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#642 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:10 pm

Nuno wrote:
tolakram wrote:GFS initialized too weak again. Not sure if it matters or not. If Elsa continues to overperform this may lead to some re-evaluation of recon input, especially if that input is suspect. I don't know if this is the issue or not though, just speculating.


What would cause recon to suddenly have input or data issues over this two-season span? It doesn't make sense but something is up


What do you mean. This is the only instance that I know of, the first recon mission missing the center, and I don't know if it actually had any effect on the GFS or not. That's why it's just speculation right now.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#643 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:14 pm

18Z GFS Similar track, much weaker, and initialized too weak.

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#644 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:30 pm



:eek: :eek:

But, no worries. It's the Navy model. Never followed here. :roll:

It makes the Canadian look good. :D
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#645 Postby Cat5James » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:33 pm

HMON initialized stronger
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#646 Postby Jr0d » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:37 pm

OuterBanker wrote:


:eek: :eek:

But, no worries. It's the Navy model. Never followed here. :roll:

It makes the Canadian look good. :D


Sometime a blind squirrel can find a nut...but I have never seen the Navy model pick up something the others did not see
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#647 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:03 pm

18z HWRF might be heading towards a Haiti landfall.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#648 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:06 pm

aspen wrote:18z HWRF might be heading towards a Haiti landfall.



ahhhh the Euro could get everything pre Hispaniola wrong except afterwards :lol:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#649 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:07 pm

toad strangler wrote:
aspen wrote:18z HWRF might be heading towards a Haiti landfall.



ahhhh the Euro could get everything pre Hispaniola wrong except afterwards :lol:

3D chess. A solution so incorrect, that it ends up being accurate.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#650 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:13 pm

18Z HWRF 33 Hours... Half a degree N of 12z and at @111 mph!
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#651 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:17 pm

Missed landfall in Haiti, but only by a hair. A clear N shift from last run, but with Elsa’s center reforming, this track might be rendered irrelevant.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#652 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:18 pm

HWRF about to clip the SE mountains of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#653 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:23 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:HWRF about to clip the SE mountains of Cuba.

Pretty much like “if I’m gonna die over Cuba, I’m gonna go out like a champ”.

Peaks as a borderline Cat 4 before landfall on this run. The HWRF is very insistent that if Elsa misses Haiti, it could go bonkers.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#654 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:26 pm

aspen wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:HWRF about to clip the SE mountains of Cuba.

Pretty much like “if I’m gonna die over Cuba, I’m gonna go out like a champ”.

Peaks as a borderline Cat 4 before landfall on this run. The HWRF is very insistent that if Elsa misses Haiti, it could go bonkers.


Actually it clipped the heel of Cuba.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#655 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:30 pm

I know there's a lot of doubt with regard to the HWRF's scenario, but it does seem plausible to me if Elsa can avoid slamming into the islands. TCHP is very, very plentiful of Jamaica. Elsa will be slowing down significantly too.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#656 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:48 pm

18z HWRF... @72 hrs huge NE shift with Elsa N of Cuba heading for Key West as Cat 1...
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#657 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:53 pm

18z HWRF 87 hrs... Landfall Key West @Cat 1 heading NNW towards Naples strengthening near 85 mph...
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#658 Postby robbielyn » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:58 pm

goes inland in naples ft meyers
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#659 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:58 pm

18z HWRF 90 hrs... 2nd Landfall in Florida at Ft Myers winds @90 mph... Moving N and beginning to recurve NE, @100 mile E shift from 12z at this point.
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#660 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:58 pm

Shift back east again...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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