ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4106
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1721 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:36 pm

I joined Storm2k in late 2020, and so far after seeing what is typically posted on this forum (especially during a hurricane that could pose a major threat), I have no regrets. Very informative, respectful, and relevant, unlike some other social media platforms.
18 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

cane5
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:24 pm

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1722 Postby cane5 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:38 pm

The fact that this is a Hurricane in early July with South Florida in the cone almost gives no comparable trends to go by including land effects etc. From the standpoint of a Hurricane buff it is fascinating but from the stand point of possibly being effected without historical data concerns me.
1 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1723 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:39 pm

Looking a little better on IR Now

Image
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1724 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:40 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
Ken711 wrote:NHC 11:00 pM discussion:




seems very odd for them to mention that possibility since the cone is well outside of that area (or even missing Cuba completely to the West)


Cone is well outside of what area? It’s goes over southern Haiti and the DR that’s why they issued Hurricane warnings. That’s also why they were being so conservative with intensity estimates. Seems like they’re having 2nd thoughts now on potential intensity.


i interpreted threading the needle as missing ALL THREE COMPLETELY and meaning missing Cuba to the East and Haiti to the west...threading that needle

as someone else pointed out, they really meant just threading the needle between Haiti and Jamaica and then going over the flatter area of Cuba
7 likes   
Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1725 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:41 pm

cane5 wrote:The fact that this is a Hurricane in early July with South Florida in the cone almost gives no comparable trends to go by including land effects etc. From the standpoint of a Hurricane buff it is fascinating but from the stand point of possibly being effected without historical data concerns me.



probably a good time to remind people to click on the orange donate button and donate (like I did earlier tonight)
8 likes   
Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1726 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:46 pm

I was waiting for a discussion that mentioned the possibility of this strengthening like the HWRF
has been showing. It seemed they like they were discounting a stronger system, though I do think
that a weaker Elsa is more likely due to land interactions.
But this confirms that conditions are favorable if Elsa can avoid land untl crossing Cuba later on.
3 likes   

cane5
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:24 pm

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1727 Postby cane5 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:49 pm

So at the 11pm advisory it seems that the closest point to South Fla is Key West but we are still in the cone which shows models are still showing some favor to Elsa making a turn more to the east so tommorrow might be the critical day to see where we stand.
1 likes   

SconnieCane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 998
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1728 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:49 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Looking a little better on IR Now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif


Going back to yesterday as a TS, the thing that has struck me about Elsa it that it has always had a really solid outflow pattern for an allegedly "sheared" system, despite its occasional difficulties with maintaining a stacked, coherent core due to its speed.
3 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1729 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:52 pm

0Z GFS run looking like the weakest one so far
1 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1730 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:56 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:

seems very odd for them to mention that possibility since the cone is well outside of that area (or even missing Cuba completely to the West)


Cone is well outside of what area? It’s goes over southern Haiti and the DR that’s why they issued Hurricane warnings. That’s also why they were being so conservative with intensity estimates. Seems like they’re having 2nd thoughts now on potential intensity.


i interpreted threading the needle as missing ALL THREE COMPLETELY and meaning missing Cuba to the East and Haiti to the west...threading that needle

as someone else pointed out, they really meant just threading the needle between Haiti and Jamaica and then going over the flatter area of Cuba


Ahhhh, gotcha. Wouldn’t that be terrible if it did miss them all and then slipped through the Yucatán channel before heading towards Fl. I’m glad that’s pretty much off the table.
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1731 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 10:58 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Looking a little better on IR Now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif


Going back to yesterday as a TS, the thing that has struck me about Elsa it that it has always had a really solid outflow pattern for an allegedly "sheared" system, despite its occasional difficulties with maintaining a stacked, coherent core due to its speed.


I’ve noticed that as well. It’s always has a good structural presentation. It was looking pretty good last night but I never expected to wake up to a hurricane.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1732 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:01 pm

cane5 wrote:So at the 11pm advisory it seems that the closest point to South Fla is Key West but we are still in the cone which shows models are still showing some favor to Elsa making a turn more to the east so tommorrow might be the critical day to see where we stand.


I’ve been thinking if the storm is NE heavy like they tend to be when it makes the turn even the East coast of fl being on the edge or out of the cone could take on some serious rain even if the storm is along the west coast. Probably even more so if it’s slightly weaker and less compact. Hopefully it’s not going to slow when it turns north.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9158
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1733 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:01 pm

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1734 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:05 pm

Pressure dropping and wind speed going up at buoy out ahead of Elsa

Image

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42059
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

cane5
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:24 pm

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1735 Postby cane5 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:24 pm

We have to know where the high pressure ridge weakens and what if any are the trough influences. I think that is why the NHC has South Florida in the cone. Most July storms are further west and move into the gulf it’s why we find the picture puzzling in the first place. Because of the speed it simply might even outweigh predictable patterns.
2 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1736 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:34 pm

Satellite degraded so much that I can’t see any cyclonic turning.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1737 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:46 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Looks ragged on IR, but it HWRF did showcase this.

Not exactly:
Image
Image

Nevertheless, yesterday’s 00Z HWRF was showing a MSLP of 1000 mb by early Saturday, yet ended up five mb too high.
3 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

cane5
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:24 pm

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1738 Postby cane5 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:56 pm

Seems like there is a pretty big traugh digging in just above Florida and latest satellite images show a northward slant possibly to hit the Dominican.If that happens who knows what will emerge but at least from what I see a due north direction might be temporary again that is why the cone still has So Fla in the cone. The story is interesting and the plot continues. Keep the popcorn poppin.
3 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1921
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1739 Postby otowntiger » Sat Jul 03, 2021 12:00 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Looking a little better on IR Now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Not really. Still looking pretty ragged in my opinion. It is going too fast to develop into much of anything.
1 likes   

AveryTheComrade
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:19 pm

Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1740 Postby AveryTheComrade » Sat Jul 03, 2021 12:03 am

CB fading while trying to wrap around, GFS much weaker and HWRF now taking it into Haiti. Not looking great for Elsa as of now, but I really need to see what's going on with it tomorrow before making any further judgements.
0 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 146 guests